I don't like Romney, think Gingrich is a far better choice, and I think Santorum is a guaranteed loss for the Republicans up and down the ballot, yes even against Obama.
Romney while I do not like his policy or governance, can and would beat Obama. Why? Simple, he'll win the swing states, pure and simple.
You have to realize elections are rarely about the opposition candidate when it is a reelection year. They are effectively a vote of confidence about the guy currently in the White House, and if you are the same party as the guy in office and he's at the end of his 8 years, guess what, your election is largely going to boil down to did the public approve of your predecessor not you, far more than it is going to be about you.
That's reality folks... Stay the Course or make a change... I know you and I don't think that way, but that's how the majority of the electorate, or the swing voter boils it down.
Clinton was elected because George Bush lost his vote of Confidence, in a 3 way race, And Clinton won a reelection because he won a vote of confidence in a 3 way race, now had those races been 2-way the outcomes would have been different, but they weren't. McCain lost and Obama won in 08 because the electorate lost confidence in BUSH, they weren't voting for Obama as much as they were voting against Bush, even though Bush wasn't on the Ballot.
This year, the electorate by any polling done absolutely by and large wants Obama gone. All the Republicans have to do to win the election is not put up someone that the typical voter is not going to view as too extreme, dangerous or radical. Doesn't matter who it is, whoever that is, they will beat Obama.
Now, in the Republican race, Romney clearly fits that Bill. Santorum? Not so much, he is easily painted as extremists with his own stupid sound bites, happened in 06 and will happen in 12 if he is the nominee.
Gingrich while he has his negatives, its harder to paint him the extremist because unlike Santorum, he can defend his stands articulately and has the intellect to turn the tables and call those attacking him by proxy in the press for their actions and do so with authority and believability.
Romney while I don't like his policies or stands, can and would win a general election, he'll simply play the safe, steady candidate as a reasonable alternative to the current screw up and win. Won't be exciting, won't be what conservatives are going to want, but he's safe and will win.
Gingrich, he'll take the fight right to Obama and make the decision not just, is this guy safe to put there, he'll actually make it a true ideological election, and I think he'd do it very very well, and in spite of the negatives in his personal background I believe he'll win over a very large majority and lead to a very large repudiation of the Obama administration and the liberal politics they believe in. End of the day I think he'd win by the larges margin of any republican if he is the nominee. Some social conservatives may not like his background of divorces etc, but he will excite the fiscal small government conservative base in a way we haven't seen since 1984.
Santorum, well sadly, I see no path to victory with him. He excites social conservatives with his stands, but unfortunately his articulation and defense of those stands usually provides fresh fodder for the left to paint him as a radical extremist, thus making him unacceptable as a replacement, even of the screw up in chief. This is exactly what they did in PA in 06, and it will be exactly the same in 12. He'll certainly fire up the social conservative base, but his constant verbal gaffes doing so will alienate just as excitedly swing voters who otherwise might consider him. He's not going to fire up the small government, fiscal conservatives, because frankly he's not one. He's a big government compassionate conservative. That part of the base won't abandon him over it, but they aren't going to be fired up about it.
Put simply, Romney will be accepted by the swing voters, Gingrich, will win over the swing voters, Santorum will be rejected by too many of them as extreme.
That's my calculus. Don't get me wrong, I'll vote for the candidate regardless of who it is, because they are all better than Obama, but I am not one of the swing voters who needs to break to the Republican side to eject Fauxbama.
As to a brokered convention, and those arguing that route, I only remind you that in modern politics only 4 times has a brokered convention happened, and in EVERY ONE OF THEM, the party that had the brokered convention lost, and usually lost big. Trying to condense a Presidential Campaign down into 60-75 days is a nearly impossible task if you wish to win.
I pretty much agree with everything you’ve written. The only small point I’d quibble with is why Obama won. There was no way Obama was going to Lose that election. I do not think it was again BIsh. But those voters, the voters who had never come out before will not come out again for Obama.
I like Gingrich as well. But it is not his destiny apparently.