Posted on 12/27/2011 7:04:15 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
With a week to go, Mitt Romney appears to be in good shape. But Iowa (as Nate Silver reminds us) can be highly volatile, and it’s certainly possible that Romney could finish as low as fifth there. Even if he finishes first or second, a surprise third-place (or second-place) finish by one of the current longshots might spark a surge for that candidate, just as Gary Hart’s distant second in 1984 was followed by his stunning upset of Walter Mondale in New Hampshire. What if it’s Rick Santorum who breaks into the top three?
I’ve been saying for some time now that it’s likely that the GOP nomination will go to a candidate who qualifies on two counts: He or she must have orthodox positions on policy issues important to conservatives, and he or she must also have conventional qualifications. Since late summer, only Romney and Rick Perry remain from a group that once included some seven or more plausible nominees, and so I’ve been saying that their combined chances of winning the nomination are very high. (I’ve usually floated a number around 95 percent or so.)
What of Santorum?
[snip]
.... Basically, if Romney has to match up against Paul, Gingrich, Bachmann or Huntsman one on one after the early states, I think Romney is as close to a lock as you can get in politics. Against Perry? I have no idea. I guess I’d say that Romney would be the favorite against Santorum, but I’m not at all sure that he’d be an overwhelming favorite. Or, to put it one more way: If there’s a 5 percent chance that someone other than Romney or Perry gets the nomination, I’m increasingly inclined to think that most of that 5 percent belongs to Santorum.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
I guess you have Newt’s wandering eye.
As the article points out, Richard Nixon had been Vice President of the United States for two Eisenhower terms.
He had run and come within a hair of beating Kennedy, and would’ve won if not for known voter fraud, which he chose not to pursue.
The race he lost was always his to lose...Gov of CA. A post in which he had never served and had formerly expressed no interest in. It was a freak move with predictable results.
Nixon then returned to national politics where he fit, and he ran with a “secret plan” to get us out of Vietnam, against a deeply divided Dem party and its standard bearer, the unabashed liberal, Hubert Humphrey.
With all that, I went to bed that night believing HH won, woke up in the am to find late states ekked it out for Nixon.
There’s little comparison to Santorum.
Santorum has the aura of someone running for president of their 10th grade class.
Hahahahahaha...
You are Comparing Santorum to Nixon? hahahahahahaha Wow, if you think Santorum is remotely the politician Nixon was, you really have been smoking some good stuff. Sorry, Santorum is a non starter in a general election.. there is no checkers speech in this guy. hahahahahahahaha Wow, talk about denial.
I have said from day one, had the Tea Party Voting block not had this all or nothing mindset, and kept bouncing from whoever told them what they wanted to hear, and actually applied a little forethought, that they would have and probably should have looked at the candidates and backed Santorum, and stayed with him.. likely would not get the nomination, but could have certainly influenced the election and MIGHT on the outside have gotten a VP not at best. HOwever, there is NO calculus, none, that gets Santorum into the White House this election cycle.
Nice dream for some, but not rooted in reality.
“Santorum is smart, decent, trustworthy, an unabashed conservative. He does lack charisma, but it’s that charisma that gets those others into trouble. Santorum could actually drive the babysitter home without trying to cop a feel.
I’d like to see him get a nice chunk of caucus votes.”
Santorum lost his incumbent Senate seat in Pennsylvania by something like _17_ percentage points. And that was an _incumbent_ seat.
Regardless of his conservatism, he’s not going to win as the Republican candidate in a general election. He wasn’t even a good enough candidate to keep his own seat in Pennsylvania (which, contrary to popular beliefs even here on FR, is quite conservative once you get away from both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh).
Anyone who believes otherwise is delusional.
And I make this assertion as one who will gladly vote for Mr. Santorum in the general election next November.
DING DING DING... Winner Winner Chicken Dinner.
It always amazes me at election time, how folks come out of the woodwork making crazy comparisons to whatever their guy is and history, without remotely actually knowing what they are talking about.
Well so and so did it in 1947.. Yes, they did, but they did it within this context, your guy doesn’t fit that context at all...
Nixon didn’t seem like such a world beater in 1962, long after his Checkers speech. Santorum won statewide in PA a state much bluer than 1962 CA. Santorum’s visage is better than Nixon’s. Both are/were short. Obviously, Santorum was never VP. My main point is that losing your last election in and of itself is not a reason to say someone is unelectable. That and Santorum’s support of Specter are the only reasons that frequently come up to reject him. No personal issues, not much for most of us on policy. No huge debate gaffes. No divorce records to unseal. Not even mob ties.
The man is clean and conservative, and certainly has as much business running as Herman Cain, whom I supported earlier.
It wasn’t long ago that Freeepers and others were sayin that Senators don’t get elected, and one did. A lot of the old rules don’t apply, or don’t apply in the same way. Iowa, with a large German Catholic pro-life contingent is a good spot for Santorum to show or better. Urge doesn’t , he’s done. But don’t count him out yet.
For any general assertion or comparison, the “devil” or sometimes even the “angel”, is in the details.
I did, that's why I like Newt. I live in Texas and have my whole life. Perry is nothing. Texas is a right to work state with no income tax. It will ALWAYS fare better than most. Perry doesn't have the IQ to challenge Iran or other foes. Keep in mind Perry was a Dem until being a Dem wouldn't get you elected in Texas.
Being governor in Texas is not the same as other governorships. Pretty much a figurehead.
My advice, find someone else. Preferably Newt, but certainly not Perry.
You picked a good FReeper name.
obama is unchallenged because he's black. He does not fit the historical pattern.
Look, Santorum is not as clean as you think he is, he’s slimey, no there may not be a mistress in the wings, but he’s slimey.. and you ignore that at your own peril. He didn’t just lose PA over a spectre endorcement, he lost PA because he slowly alienated everyone.
Just because someone votes the way you like doesn’t mean the guy is going to win elections or is viable.
Santorum lost because he routinely would say one thing, and do something different. He’s slimey guys, he not only LOST Pa last time, he lost it HUGE... and to a nobody who literallly ran a campaign of say nothing, and for the last 6 years has done nothing.
Santorum won a relatively close election in 94, by being pretty ugly to the incumbent, by 2006 he was guilty of most of the things he attacked that incumbent for. He had a solid win in 2000 as an incoumbent, and the was summarilly routed.
Santorum owned a house in PA, he never lived in just to have the local school district pay for his kids cyber schooling, and to make a bogus claim he lived in PA..even though he hadn’t in years.. and he attacked wofford back in 94 for the same thing.. he’s slimey guys and while he is more popular in the rest of the country, those of us that have had to deal with him, don’t particularly like the man, he’s earned his reputation and its not glowing in the least.
I agree one loss in politics does not mean a career is over, but Santorum does not have the political skill, or personal ability to win a national election for the White House. He has no chance of carrying PA or OH in a general election, let alone how badly he will be beaten up by the press, he won’t be able to stand it.
I am not saying he’s a bad person, but he’s slimy, and not the squeaky clean most who don’t live in PA think he is. Casey didn’t beat Santorum, Santorums chickens came home to roost, life long republicans crossed the isle to vote against him, for a nobody say nothing.
If Santorum was just a fluke loss, was burried under the tide of the Obama election etc.. he would could be mounting a comeback in PA.. Casey is one of the most vulnerable Senators up in 06, yet, Santorum isn’t anywhere near that race, why? Because he knows he cannot win the state... he’s done. He may have a future on the national scene, but its not going to be with his first attempt being a White House bid.
No one can win the general election.
And, yet, someone will.
If we're talking "could", sure he could. If we're talking "will", I don't know and I wouldn't have money on it at this point.
Santorum has a strong chance to make a run because Conservatives are split on Bachmann and Perry and they are 60/40 against Gingrich or at least not 100% sold on Newt. So with Cain having floundered out of the race that only leaves Santorum as the choice.
Thank God, I thought we were doomed.
It was bad, I live in PA, there is history here with Santorum, he’s not forthright on things, and it caught up with him. Casey’s name has weight, but to claim it was just his old man is nonsense. Santorum was so weak of a candidate, he literally ran against someone who phoned in, never talked, never did anything but laid low and won, and won huge.
There is a REASON for this, Santorum alienated he didn’t build support or coalitions, he alienated the very people he needed repeatedly.. Republicans.
You can continue to believe that Santorum is more than he is, but you will eventually learn. Yes, on votes he’s pretty conservative, and he says things most conservatives want to hear, but he’s not a overly talented politician, and shot himself in the foot repeatedly, insulted and alienated parts of the core Republican constituency etc etc etc. He has no path to the white house. At best he is a VP at this point, and that’s on a long shot.
Santorum came to the senate attacking Wofford for all sorts of things, not living in PA, this that and the other thing.. then by 2006 he was doing all those “corrupt” things he was accusing wofford of, he’s slimey, and not very astute. He won’t remotely survive a national campaign where the press are going to be riding him every step of the way. He’s not going to connect with voters on a national level to pull in more than high 30s.
You think the house scandal isn’t bad, claiming you live in PA, when you clearly don’t and then getting caught at it, was bad, his already pathetic poll numbers took a big hit when that came out.
Like I said, strictly from his voting record and speech, I like the guys stands, but I also know him as a politician and what he talked a good game, but he wasn’t as ideologically conservative as he portrays himself.. which isn’t really his problem. His problem is that he won’t connect to voters on the national stage, and while conservatives will love him, he’s not going to motivate the swing vote his way.
It is sad that in a time Republicans should be able to run mickey mouse and win due to the abject ineptitude of the current administration, that isn’t going to happen. The press, and a multi Billion dollar war chest are going to do every nasty thing in the book, and when things get nasty around Santorum, he doesn’t handle it very well, he gets nasty and looks bad when doing it.
Santorum can’t connect well enough with Republican primary voters to get the nomination, if he can’t do that, believing he can win a general election is simply denial. You can win a primary, and not win a general, but if you can’t even win your own parties primary, you have no shot in a general, and while anything could happen, I really don’t see Santorum ever getting more than 15-20% of any primary vote.. not straw polls but actual walk into a voting booth and vote primaries. Time will tell, but I think there is a whole lot of wishful thinking going on with claims Santorum could win a General.
We’ll just have to agree to disagree on this one.
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