So it is like a “Masque of the Red Death” scenario as written of by Poe.
I am an RN by trade working in an ICU. If something like this broke out, I might be faced with an untenable dilemma; especially since I have family!
Q: I have one last question before I go, how will these folks know. Are you going to write, or will it be on the news or what?
MA: That is to be easy. All the systems are now in place. The Internet is here, the pandemic blogs are all up and watching and we only wait. It will be out of Egypt, because of the powerful infrastructure watching for H5N1 outbreaks, where most people will hear the first news. When you hear of the sudden outbreak in Egypt, leave immediately. Use only self service gas pumps, do not stop and do not have any human contact from that point on.
If you are alone, or with your family run to a refuge. Wait for it to burn out. Be patient and then patient some more. Let the darkness pass over the earth. It will be quicker than any Hollywood disaster movie could ever portray. But it will pass.
Q: Well that is pretty clear. Egypt huh?
MA: That is where you will first know.
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Here is her advise to us. Watch Egypt.
It will break out in multiple locations but because of the H5N1 monitoring system in place - the news will first come out of Egypt.
It will be deadly and quick.
Q: MA, are you saying that there are to be multiple simultaneous mutations worldwide?
MA: Yes.
Q: And I assume this large scale outbreak is what overpowers the health care systems?
MA: There will never be a real opportunity for containment. This is not Hollywood. No hero will develop a magical antidote just in time to save the beautiful woman. No, this event is of such a consequence that, by the time the scale is apparent, the issue will be settled.
Because the virus is airborne the first three days of outbreaks will saturate such a large population that all the wheels will rapidly come off even the best health care systems. The first task will be to understand what is happening and it will, all to rapidly, become apparent that it is a very hot bug and that it is pandemic.
But by the time the extent of what has happened is well known - there will be no recourse.
Child, there is no recourse even now. We cannot kill this creature. We have only kept it at bay for these many years and that era of detente is rapidly ending.
Q: But MA, you make it sound so hopeless. How could you believe such a thing?
MA: There are things that I believe and things that I know. This virus and its coming change are something I know. I know in detail and specificity that defies all common understanding - yet my knowledge remains.
And now you know.
More like the opening pages of The Stand.
Chances are that by the time a fast-moving, highly contagious disease was recognized to be a threat, it would be widespread enough that the damage would be done. Every time you walk through the ER, there are people presenting with URT symptoms, sniffles and sneezing among them--in this scenario, any one of them could be transmitting the new variant by air.
Small groups would be most likely to survive, and those with limited human contact outside the group. (Think wilderness area hikers, families on camping trips, etc.) Virtually anyone in a large population cluster would be toast unless they had some natural immunity which is unknown. Most would take it home to or catch it from their families before they knew they were infected.
Defoe's Journal of the Plague Years might be closer, but this could be far worse.
Of course, the question remains of whether the survivors would be able to salvage stuff from the ruins without getting infected themselves, and if so, how soon? Without that capability, civilization as we know it would be set back a few centuries at best within a generation.