Posted on 12/14/2011 4:59:02 AM PST by James Oscar
MA: That is where you will first know.
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Today .... Vietnam, Cambodia Report Bird-Flu Deaths
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204301404577170692542297700.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsSecond
Vietnam on Thursday confirmed its first human death from bird flu in nearly two years, a day after neighboring Cambodia also logged its first fatality this year as new cases of the H5N1 virus are reported in Asia and the Middle East.
Both deaths appear to be linked to contact with poultry, and no human-to-human transmission is suspected. Other human bird-flu cases have been reported recently in Indonesia, Egypt and China. Outbreaks typically flare among poultry stocks during the winter flu months, often resulting in a spate of human cases.
clickable link ...
Hmmmmm....... That’s a little troubling.
I think this is the way it will first appear. An unusual uptick in H5N1 cases (unconfirmed)and then clusters with health care worker involvement.
If I understand MA correctly, it would be best to be gone by then.
If I understand MA correctly, it would be best to be gone by then.
Gone where?
Two die of A(H1N1) swine flu in Mexico: official
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.ed2a687c0642d8185d1e4e7ccab9f2c3.1e1&show_article=1
An outbreak of A(H1N1) swine flu claimed the lives of two people — 19 and 21 years old — in Mexico’s capital in the first weeks of the year, health authorities said Saturday.
The health secretary of Mexico’s Federal District, Armando Ahued, said there were 138 confirmed cases of the flu, including 110 cases of A(H1N1), a novel strain of the swine flu that was first detected in 2009.
Nationwide, 333 cases of the virus have been confirmed, the federal government’s health secretary said earlier in the week, without saying how many deaths had been attributed to it.
Q: I stopped talking for a few moments and stared into the fire with my thoughts. It was too much to assimilate on one afternoon, now early evening. But this was my last night in Carson and my last night interviewing the remarkably complex lady who long ago signed on to a web site as “Mother Abigail”. I looked up and she was serene and quiet in her big black chair.
If this is all true, are you saying only isolated groups will survive - like in past bottlenecks?
MA: No, unfortunately groups will not be so lucky. All those well prepared groups who believe that when the stuff hits the fan they will survive because of where they live or where they will retreat to - will make one tragic error. They will welcome carriers into their retreats before the scope and speed of the outbreak are well known. It will be their undoing.
This outbreak is of a different scale. The penetration of the virus into human culture and population, the speed of the spread of the airborne variant, and the closeness of human contact in our modern age are all factors that, except for a few isolated pockets, mark the end of the rise of Homo Sapien Sapien.
It is very close to an extinction event.
Q: You say isolated pockets?
MA: Yes, there will be those few who, at first report of the strange deaths, will depart immediately to a place they have chosen and stocked with provisions. This will not be groups but the next step down - families.
This place will have ample water and be so removed from human contact that the virus will burn through our species without finding them in their place of refuge.
It will be these families that must carry on with our hopes and dreams of better days.
This is not an easy concept to understand but in all this trauma and tragedy - there is transformation. A sort of genetic winnowing and even, in the macro sense, a choosing.
For those who are awaiting this event, and child do not be deceived, they are many in many lands. These coming events are not unknown. They have a feeling, a premonition, a precognition of what lies ahead. It is growing in their hearts and they will not hesitate to flee at that crucial moment when flight and isolation are still possible.
Q: Precognition?
MA: Yes. We have spent a very long time discussing how in our species there is a range of abilities in the area of perception. Perception will be the only determinant in this bottleneck.
The time is so close that most of the staging for the refuge will have started long ago. They have chosen their spot, they are stocking the larder and they only wait. For they also know.
It is our time and as difficult as it may be, this is what we will do.
Q: Will you go to the lake?
MA: No, I am a doctor and I will serve in that capacity as best I can. This is my home and I am happy with my life’s work and I am at peace with my Lord. In this small town we will do what we can against a foe that carries only darkness and finality.
I guess that says it all.
By the way, the 2 previous news links I posted were just things I saw on Drudge since you posted this thread.
Just now, there’s another.....
Bird flu claims another victim in China
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.f4b3121d53c9061ef3bd59387255abe5.111&show_article=1
A man in southwest China who contracted the bird flu virus died on Sunday, state media reported, the second human death in the Asian country from the virulent disease in just under a month.
The victim fell ill on January 6 and was subsequently admitted to hospital in Guiyang — capital of Guizhou province — where his condition rapidly deteriorated, the official Xinhua news agency said.
Tests confirmed he had contracted the H5N1 avian influenza virus, it added.
bookmark for later..if later comes?
Commentary
Data Supporting Enhanced Human H5N1 Transmission in Egypt
Recombinomics Commentary 16:50
April 21, 2009
That would be an alarming development, but other experts, including those at the World Health Organization, say such fears are exaggerated. Although thousands of Egyptians have rushed their children to hospitals this flu season, there is no evidence yet of asymptomatic avian flu cases or any significant mutation in the H5N1 virus.
“Right now, it’s all hot air,” said Dr. Robert G. Webster, a flu expert at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis. “I hope to hell it’s not happening, because it would mean the virus is adapting to humans. But there’s not a shred of data.”
The above comments from Donald McNeil’s New York Times piece, “Avian Flu Cases in Egypt Raise Alarms,” include the control data that provides more than a “shred of data” for enhanced H5N1 transmisison because the confirmed cases are focused in toddlers between the ages of 1 ½ and 2 ½. The other children “rushed” to hospitals this year have tested negative.
There have been 15 confirmed H5N1 cases this year and 12 were children. However, only one of the 12 was not a toddler. Moreover, the 11 confirmed toddlers are almost double the 6 toddler confirmed in the past three years. Thus, the frequency in each of the past three years was about 12%, while this year its 67% of confirmed cases. In addition, all have survived and most have had mild cases that did not produce pneumonia nor require ventilators. Only one of the 11 toddlers had been in critical condition, and even when osletamivir treatment begins three to four days after the start of symptoms, as seen in the latest case, the case is still mild.
These mild cases raise concerns that they may represents a small tip of a very large iceberg. In the spring of 2007 there were also mild cases, when 16/17 patients survived. However, the demographic was different. 16/17 of the cases were children between the ages of 3-10. Thus, the change in demographic from children in the spring of 2007 to toddlers in 2009 is significant and represents real data.
The concern of significant spread is also supported by the clustering of clusters. The two cases (#61 and #62) identified at the beginning of this month were cousins and next door neighbors in Kom Hadash in Beheira. The four day spread in disease onset date indicated the index case #61 infected his cousin, #62.
That cluster was followed by the formation of a similar cluster (case #64 and #66) in Kafr el Sheikh in a small district, Kellin. It remains unclear if these two cases were related or neighbors, but the two cases had disease onset dates separated by 8 days, and the cluster signals for efficient transmission of H5N1 to humans.
In addition, the other two cases this month (case #63 and #65) were from northern Cairo and admitted to the same hospital. Treatment was delayed after admission, suggesting the patients denied poultry contact.
Thus, the six most recent confirmed cases form three geographic clusters, signaling more efficient transmission of H5N1 to patients. Moreover, none of the patients have died, although three were initially in critical condition, but none were toddlers. The three toddlers in these cluster have mild cases and only the most recent case is still hospitalized.
In addition to the epidemiological data, suggesting H5N1 infections are significantly higher than the confirmed cases, is the evidence for a genetic change. Although there is no data supporting reassortment between human and avian flu genes, there is little reason to expect such data since there have been no prior reports, including dozens of H5N1 clusters signaling human to human transmission.
Instead there is evidence of a genetic change at position 129, which is in contact with the receptor binding domain. Most clusters involving clade 2.2 have receptor binding domain changes. The deletion of position 129, S129del, has been reported in 13 public H5N1 sequences in Egypt, including human and avian isolates in 2007 and 2008. In 2007, the cluster from Qena had this change in H5N1 from two siblings. The hospital admission dates for the siblings were four days apart, supporting the infection of one sibling (4M) by his sister (6F). The deletion is also associated with a downstream change, A152T, found in H5N1 escape mutants isolated by the Webster lab. This additional change signals the origin of the deletion.
In addition, another change at position 129 (S129L) is associated with human H5N1 isolates in Asia, signaling a role for this position in the adaptation to humans. Moreover, this change is also associated with changes that creates similarities between H5N1 and H1N1, human seasonal flu.
This genetic data is some obscured in the 2009 cases because NAMRU-3 has not released any H5N1 sequences from poultry or human isolates from the 2008/2009 season. However the first two cases of 2009 (toddlers from Cairo and Suez) was included in a WHO phylogenetic tree on vaccine target for 2009. Both toddler sequences were similar, and the branch on the tree suggested that the 2009 isolates belonged to the sub-clade with S129del. In prior trees from 2007 and 2008 WHO reports on vaccine targets, at least one public sequence with S129del was included. The absence of such a marker in the 2009 reports leaves some ambiguity, but it is likely that the two isolates from the toddlers has S129del.
Thus, the data on the genetic changes in H5N1 in 2009 in Egypt has been withheld by NAMRU-3, although WHO clearly has the data because it was required to construct the WHO tree.
Media reports indicate the WHO team is in route to Egypt to investigate the H5N1 cases and clusters.
Release of the withheld human H5N1 sequence data is long overdue.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04210902/H5N1_Egypt_Data.html
In light of MA’s prediction - this is very worrisome.
This might interest you.
Post #129
But that was a year or more ago, wasn't it? How is that powerful infrastructure now after the revolution towards the 7th century?
A very good question.
While most of Egypt crumbles, the H5N1 reporting system in Egypt is the best in the world. (In my head I can hear MA saying that there are no coincidences).
______________________________________
These mild cases raise concerns that they may represents a small tip of a very large iceberg. In the spring of 2007 there were also mild cases, when 16/17 patients survived. However, the demographic was different. 16/17 of the cases were children between the ages of 3-10. Thus, the change in demographic from children in the spring of 2007 to toddlers in 2009 is significant and represents real data.
The concern of significant spread is also supported by the clustering of clusters. The two cases (#61 and #62) identified at the beginning of this month were cousins and next door neighbors in Kom Hadash in Beheira. The four day spread in disease onset date indicated the index case #61 infected his cousin, #62.
That cluster was followed by the formation of a similar cluster (case #64 and #66) in Kafr el Sheikh in a small district, Kellin. It remains unclear if these two cases were related or neighbors, but the two cases had disease onset dates separated by 8 days, and the cluster signals for efficient transmission of H5N1 to humans.
In addition, the other two cases this month (case #63 and #65) were from northern Cairo and admitted to the same hospital. Treatment was delayed after admission, suggesting the patients denied poultry contact.
Thank you for posting this!
Jan 21st 2012, 17:56 by J.P.
IN DECEMBER boffins around the world were taken aback by an odd request. The American government called on the world’s two leading scientific publications to censor research. As we reported at the time, Nature (a British journal) and Science (an American one) were about to publish studies by two separate teams which had been tinkering with H5N1 influenza, better known as bird flu, to produce a strain that might be able to pass through the air between humans. The authorities fretted that were the precise methods and detailed genetic data to fall into the wrong hands, the consequences would be too awful to contemplate. They therefore suggested that only the broad conclusions be made public; the specifics could be sent to vetted scientists alone.
A furore duly erupted, fanned by fears of a pandemic that would make the “Spanish flu” of 1918, which may have claimed up to 100m lives, look like a mild case of the sniffles. On January 20th the teams’ leaders, Ron Fouchier of Rotterdam’s Erasmus Medical Centre and Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, bowed to public pressure. In a joint statement published in Nature and Science and signed by 37 other leading flu experts, they announced a voluntary 60-day moratorium on all similar research. The aim of the self-imposed suspension, they explained, is to give organisations and governments time “to find the best solutions for opportunities and challenges that stem from the work”.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2012/01/flu-research-and-biological-warfare
Avian influenza - situation in Egypt - update
19 January 2012
The Ministry of Health and Population of Egypt has notified WHO of two cases of human infection with avian influenza.
The first case is a 2 year-old female from Cairo Governorate. She visited Helwan Fever Hospital as an outpatient on 30 October 2011 with symptoms of influenza-like-illness.
The case was confirmed by RT-PCR at the Central Public Health Laboratory through periodic testing of samples collected from ILI outpatients from sentinel ILI surveillance sites. The epidemiological team investigated the case after confirmation of the laboratory test.
Retrospective investigation through data collected from her family identified a positive history of exposure to backyard poultry.
Samples from the case have been sent to the US Naval Medical Research Unit No. 3 (NAMRU-3) for further sequencing.
The second case is a 31 year-old male from Fayium governorate.
He developed symptoms on 1 January 2012, received oseltamivir on 14 January 2012 and is still hospitalised under the critical care unit.
The case was confirmed by the Central Public Health Laboratory, a National Influenza Center of the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance Network.
Epidemiological investigations into both the cases indicated that they had exposure to backyard poultry.
Of the 159 cases confirmed to date in Egypt, 55 have been fatal.
The case was confirmed by RT-PCR at the Central Public Health Laboratory through periodic testing of samples collected from ILI outpatients from sentinel ILI surveillance sites. The epidemiological team investigated the case after confirmation of the laboratory test.
Retrospective investigation through data collected from her family identified a positive history of exposure to backyard poultry.
Sounds like Stephen King’s The Stand to me.
/save for later reading
Here is the link to all the SARS threads (1,174 articles) that were posted on Freerepublic, from April 2003 thru January 2004:
SARS Threads
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/902131/posts?page=1
The list includes Mother Abigail’s Precognition (link #6) for those interested in reading the actual thread.
Oops...it is LINK #4
Thanks for the ping. Worrisome indeed.
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