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Could Gaddafi Still Win...?
Reaganite Republican ^ | February 28, 2011 | Reaganite Republican

Posted on 02/28/2011 3:26:01 AM PST by Reaganite Republican

Perhaps the better question is: 
"can rag-tag rebels take Tripoli anytime soon?"


He's lost 3/4 of Libyan territory... army desertions rampant... international community now attempting to employ the stage-hook... so how's the 'mad dog of the Middle East'
still hanging on? 

First, there's a real reason the Libyan Army can't solve this all as cleanly as was done in Egypt: distrusting military officers like himself who possess the desire -and ability- to stage coups,
Col Gaddafi long ago emasculated his own army, rendering them largely unable to topple him.  They possess the oldest weapons, have limited intelligence capabilities, and number a mere 50,000 men. This brings the dawning realization of what Gaddafi meant last week by "this is not Egypt, this is not Tunisia."
 

And while many have been encouraged by pictures of soldiers joining up with the protesters, defections to this point have been along tribal lines- not something entirely unexpected. The fact is that there's simply no unitary, disciplined military force in Libya today with the ablity to quickly push Gaddafi aside...

The Air Force is a bit more impressive and loyal than the ground troops, and outside of a couple well-publicized defections, most of them have shown no compunction whatsoever in buzzing, bombing, strafing civilian protesters on the orders of the Brotherly Leader and Guide of the Revolution (brothers can be cruel... but this is something else).

And Col Gaddafi has clearly been planning for this eventuality for decades... all the pieces are in place: support now comes from fiercely loyal militias and armed "revolutionary committees" who are -as the last line of defense- sworn to Gaddafi and/or his sons personally, as well as co-opted tribes and black African mercenaries. All these parties have a large personal stake in the outcome and are willing to kill almost anyone to protect it. Contrary to popular opinion, this motivation also applies to the foreign fighters... there's surely little good waiting for them back in Chad. 


At the vanguard of pro-Gaddafi forces is 5th son Khamis Gaddafi and his crack special forces unit, one that's already played a large part in putting down unrest in the capitol- and in the most ruthless fashion imaginable. Khamis Gaddafi is cut from a different cloth from his international playboy brothers, was trained at a top Russian military academy, and is the one who hired the black African mercenaries who really don't mind shooting Libyans... unlike the the army regulars. Loyalist forces have already shown they'll waste whoever they need to to keep Gaddafi in power.

Alas, Moammar Gaddafi himself has got little to lose at this point: after unleashing air power and even naval shelling upon protesters, he surely faces war crimes charges at The Hague... provided that he even makes it out of the country alive. It's now down to kill or be killed... a no-brainer for a bloodthirsty megalomaniac like this one. 

Both the old man and his son/spokesman Saif al-Islam have stated publicly that they'll fight to the death, with "rivers of blood", etc.- and I believe them. How much of the country they drag into the abyss -or if Gaddafi manages to turn the tide- is most of what remains in doubt. 

Actually, some experts see Gadaffi already winning. And if not, he'll arm allied tribes if he has to... likely leading to a bloody civil war. Seems logical to expect some sort of Gaddafi military offensive in the coming week, before any aid reaches the rebellious east.

And hey, it's not like he doesn't have any friends left... Farrakhan says they're "still cool".


On the rebel side, things have gone quite well to this point, and they've even been pledged US support over the weekend. What a shame it is for that the kiss-of-death has arrived in the form of an Obama endorsement. I sure hope they're not aware of the implications in that- guy sure knows how to pick a loser....


International Business Times  Michelle Malkin  The Daily Caller   
Kenya News   Weasel Zippers   The Telegraph (UK)   Aljezeera
______________________________________________________


More at Reaganite Republican



TOPICS: Government; History; Military/Veterans; Politics
KEYWORDS: gaddafi; ghaddafi; libya; qaddafi
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To: K-Stater
The sooner they bury this corrupt monster Gaddafi, in his Bedouin robes and full military regalia, the better.

Libya Col Gaddafi turned Libya into a haven for anti-Western radicals. Any group, no matter how bloodstained or discredited, could receive guns and cash, provided it claimed to be fighting 'imperialism.'

Col Gaddafi also served as paymaster and arms dealer to the IRA.

Libya gave the Provos weapons and explosives that were used over the years to kill hundreds of people and maim thousands more. In 1984, the Provos were militarily underarmed, underfunded and on their knees - then the rogue Libyan leader stepped in.

He also sent a host of Libyan extremists/martyrs to die fighting for the PLO and the liberation of Palestine. Their coffins came home to Tripoli with an official red carpet and heroes reception, complete with roses, prayers and chants expressing the pride of everyone as a result of these heroes' sacrifice.

All this made him a crucial enemy of the West, causing President Reagan to label him a 'mad dog' and order American bombers to strike Tripoli in 1986.

Col Gaddafi - Libya

Libya - Lockerbie - Pan Am

21 posted on 02/28/2011 4:29:42 AM PST by BobP (The piss-stream media - Never to be watched again in my house)
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To: sinsofsolarempirefan

“But there wasn’t any hope of (Hitler) winning towards the end either.”

I don’t know...the Battle of the Buldge, from what I read, nearly lost the whole effort. He need to secure Romanian oil, and almost got it. At that point he may well have been back in business. Wars can sometimes turn just when one side thinks their work is about finished.


22 posted on 02/28/2011 4:37:00 AM PST by BobL (PLEASE READ: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2657811/posts)
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To: Reaganite Republican
He's going down.
23 posted on 02/28/2011 4:42:34 AM PST by samtheman
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To: BobL

Sorry, but no way was Hitler going to win after 1943 (and probably from the moment he had decided to invade Russia).

Even if D-Day had failed, the Russians would have overwhelmed him in the end. The Battle of the Bulge was not that important to the overall result of the war. It was a pretty desperate gamble on Hitler’s part, and even if it had achieved in its unlikely aim of driving the western allies into the see, it wouldn’t have stopped the Soviets from overwhelming him on the Eastern front (which was the real epicentre of the European conflict, the western front was a mere sideshow in comparison).

The only real consequence would have been that the Russians would have owned a considerably heftier chunk of Germany and maybe other parts of Eastern Europe than would otherwise have been the case...


24 posted on 02/28/2011 4:44:45 AM PST by sinsofsolarempirefan
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To: Reaganite Republican

Speaking of rebels getting outside assistance:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12594090


25 posted on 02/28/2011 4:46:44 AM PST by sinsofsolarempirefan
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To: sinsofsolarempirefan
Today he is passing out $400 per family in cash. A hugh and series sum in the $hithole that is Libya. Buying votes just like our Dems.
26 posted on 02/28/2011 4:56:02 AM PST by mad_as_he$$ ( "Hokahey, today is a good day to die!" Crazy Horse, Lakota Sioux)
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To: sinsofsolarempirefan
I seriously doubt that will happen. Libyans aren’t Islamic fundamentalists on the whole, and they wouldn’t have enough support to take control of Libya.

The majority may not be fundamentalists, but the fundamentalists and the military are the only groups cohesive and organized enough to grab power in a power vacuum, and Qaddafi has spent decades purging the military of potential rivals.

27 posted on 02/28/2011 4:56:02 AM PST by PapaBear3625 ("It is only when we've lost everything, that we are free to do anything" -- Fight Club)
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To: sinsofsolarempirefan

If I were Quaddify, I would shoot my tailor before I left.


28 posted on 02/28/2011 4:56:18 AM PST by Venturer
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To: Venturer
If I were Quaddify, I would shoot my tailor before I left.

LOL.

I'm still trying to figure out how he turned from a military strongman into a creepy old transvestite.

29 posted on 02/28/2011 5:01:27 AM PST by SIDENET ("If that's your best, your best won't do." -Dee Snider)
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To: PapaBear3625

I suppose we will have to see. I’m optimistic that it won’t happen. In any case, at this stage, most alternatives are better than Gaddafy re-assuming charge, because if he does, he is not going to forget what the rest of the world tried to do to him, and he would probably think that as a pariah who managed to survive a rebellion in spite of almost universal global opposition, he would have nothing to lose in gaining revenge by going back to his old habits of supporting international terrorism. You can bet on that. Any new regime coming in to replace Gaddafy is much more likely to be amenable to being able to do business with the outside world in a fairly reasonable manner.
Things are too far gone for that to be possible with Gaddafy now...


30 posted on 02/28/2011 5:08:38 AM PST by sinsofsolarempirefan
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To: mad_as_he$$

He’s not going to be able to keep doing that forever. The noose is tightening and the rebels are closing in. He’s running out of resources and options. He is a dead man. I have no doubt about that...


31 posted on 02/28/2011 5:10:35 AM PST by sinsofsolarempirefan
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To: Reaganite Republican

Much as I’d like to see Qhadifi stay, the bottom line is he has only 5000 loyalist regular forces and that ain’t enough to push back or defend against 7 million citizens.


32 posted on 02/28/2011 5:29:41 AM PST by Vendome (DonÂ’t take life so seriously... YouÂ’ll never live through it.)
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To: sinsofsolarempirefan; BobL

Quite true. The three biggest mistakes Hitler made were a) not waiting a couple more years (where the quality of his military machine, which was substantial, would have been buttressed by increased quantities), b) his sheer lunacy in taking the war to the Eastern Front (had he left Russia alone there is a chance the Third Riech may still be around ...starting a land war with Russia simply ended up leaching the German army because there was no way the Russians were going to surrender, even after many millions dead and the Germans just a few miles from key Russian cities ....you cannot win against an enemy who will not surrender, and who has large numbers, and then you add the Russian Winter into the mix and it is a cold version of Gehenna), and c) Hitler making certain asinine strategic decisions (according to some reports, he had syphillis and this ended up making him a tad insane). Anyways, had Hitler waited 5 more years, had he decided to not backstab Stalin and attack Russia, and had he let his generals (who, particularly at the beginning of the war, were brilliant) run the war effort, there is a good chance that Britain would have had its back broken, and that Nazi Germany would not be just some footnote in history with the only relevant modern note being some sotty neo-Nazi skinheads m@$turbating to Mein Kampf. The wisest thing Hitler would have done is to have allied with the Soviets - that act alone may have won the war for him.


33 posted on 02/28/2011 5:33:10 AM PST by spetznaz (Nuclear-tipped Ballistic Missiles: The Ultimate Phallic Symbol)
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To: spetznaz

Firstly, I think Hitler and Stalin were always going to go to war. Although their ideological differences are not as dissimilar as many people believe, they were intense ideological rivals for jockeying for the same constituents (socialist central statists).
Mein Kampf talks constantly about destroying bolshevism and going to war against the slavs in Russia, and I think Stalin probably realised it too. I think Stalin was playing for time and was planning to destroy Hitler himself before Hitler pre-empted him.
Yes, Hitler and Stalin in alliance could probably have conquered the world, but it was never really going to be on the cards...


34 posted on 02/28/2011 5:47:58 AM PST by sinsofsolarempirefan
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To: sinsofsolarempirefan

He can survive for a long time because he has thousands of mercenaries from Chad and elsewhere on his side who have absolutely no compunction against shooting Libyans. The airforce is largely loyal to him and most of them have no problem shooting at their fellow Libyans, especially against the tribes from the East.

He can survive for as long as Premier Hussein sits with his thumb up his keister trying to figger out what to do next, and wile the US Navy’s Sixth Fleet seems to have vanished from the face of the Earth.

We should have had a carrier task force on this weeks ago, enforcing a no-fly zone, forcing Kadaffy into his bunkers and then bombing him into the loving arms of Allah with as many of those improve bunker-busters that we could deliver.

Libya has been under Kadaffy’s thumb for 41 years, the only government institution that exists is the oil ministry and I think the world has had enough of this. Unfortunately they expect the US to take the lead and that is clearly not going to happen. As a result, Kadaffy has an excellent chance of holding on and eventually re-taking the country.


35 posted on 02/28/2011 5:54:27 AM PST by Bean Counter (Stout Hearts)
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To: Venturer
“If I were Quaddify, I would shoot my tailor before I left.”

But who then design clothing for Michael Jackson?

Oh never mind...

36 posted on 02/28/2011 6:00:10 AM PST by HereInTheHeartland (Vote like Obama is on the ballot)
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To: sinsofsolarempirefan
Worst thing for him so far is that his “nurse” left him!!! LOL...
37 posted on 02/28/2011 6:05:41 AM PST by mad_as_he$$ ( "Hokahey, today is a good day to die!" Crazy Horse, Lakota Sioux)
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To: Bean Counter

There is an embargo on Gaddafi, most of the oilfields are in rebel hands and his overseas assets are being seized. What is going to happen when he runs out of money or commodities with which to bribe people to support him?

He’s screwed. Its just a matter of when, not if..


38 posted on 02/28/2011 6:15:19 AM PST by sinsofsolarempirefan
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To: sinsofsolarempirefan
Agreed ...it was always going to be a case of who was going to draw the six-shooter on the other first, and in this case Hitler had the faster hand. However, the moment he cocked that gun he simultaneously cocked another pointed at his head.

There was a book I came across some years back that basically gave a 'what if' look at events in history, with one or two things made different. It was quite interesting (and terrifying) in regards to some of the things that may have happened had just a couple of facets or aspects shunted a little one way or the other.

39 posted on 02/28/2011 6:49:04 AM PST by spetznaz (Nuclear-tipped Ballistic Missiles: The Ultimate Phallic Symbol)
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To: sinsofsolarempirefan

I agree that “when” is the question of the day. I fear that without backup Kadaffy’s forces could slaughter thousands of Libyan civilians before he can be deposed.

If he is deposed at all. Libya as we know it could end up being split with Kadaffy and his family running the West and “Free Libya” running the East.

Worth watching closely.


40 posted on 02/28/2011 7:12:32 AM PST by Bean Counter (Stout Hearts)
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