Romney is a non-starter, so he won't make a good boogie man for Palin supporters. I guess you think RINOs are going to vote for Palin. Ain't happening.
Odd post, evidently you aren't aware of who the frontrunners are, and who has the money, organization, name ID, and political staff lined up, along with endorsements and commitments.
As far as rinos and voting, they are more likely to support the GOP than not, whereas the conservative base has reached it's limits, and will give a weak turn out to a Mitt Romney, or a Romney clone, and many tea partiers may go third party and give you the GOP 30% that you think is possible.