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intrade's got the odds on Dem Senate control plunging to 45%. How about that... all these guys betting money on the upper house going to the Republicans... do they know something the pollsters are missing?

Yes what the know is that if you read the fine print of the bet for "Dem Control" on itrade requires 50 Democrats. The two independents don't count. Since the minimum pickup for the GOP is 7 or 8 it is a fairly safe bet that there will be less than 50 democrats in the Senate. But that is different than 51 Republicans. The better bet to watch is GOP control of the senate, which is much lower.

I still think it is a possibility if the wave is big enough to pull Washington and West Virginia into the GOP column.