Posted on 09/17/2010 9:45:49 AM PDT by Slyscribe
Veteran election analyst Charlie Cook has backed away from his earlier prediction that control of the Senate was in play in this election. In light of Tuesday’s Delaware Republican primary, Cook says the odds now overwhelmingly favor the Democrats retaining their Senate majority:
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.investors.com ...
You are right... I’m just going by the poll numbers. A six point swing and she’s in the lead.
Bottomline: They are spinning. They were claiming we had a “chance” when West Virginia was not even on the map or in play. Now it is. And so in theory if you swapped out Delaware for West Virginia, why is it no longer a possibility?
In addition, CT has tightened up dramatically. Which was written off as solid Dem. PA is now a lock which was a tossup. Etc etc.
I strongly suspect that the voter of Delaware WILL indeed elect O’Donnell especially if she uses the fact that here Dem opponent is a self avowed Communist to maximum effect!
In a conventional election, I’d agree but I guess we are going to see just how unconventional this election is. The polls keep moving in the GOP’s favor. In Delaware, the voters may just be willing to vote for someone who they know will vote to cut government despite her personal flaws rather than vote in a Marxist with a better resume. I guess we’ll find out.
However, I think that even we conservatives will be surprised by the depth and the breadth of conservative victory in November. It’s going to be extra-ordinary, and will dwarf 1994.
My feeling exactly.
Boxer is going to loose by 2%.
Feingold is going to loose by 4%
WV is a big unknown due to the internal Dim machine.
NV could be a big surprise if Reid can’t get more union excitement.
Washington is at least a 50-50 shot.
“While the polls have shown Dino Rossi trailing Patty Murray, I believe in the end the result will be very close to the jungle primary,”
With Mail-In Voter Fraud in Washington, I’m afraid Rossi doesn’t stand much of a chance.
I think you’re too optimistic. Dems tend to “come home” in October. My ratings are:
GOP Locks
1.) Arkansas
2.) Indiana
3.) North Dakota
GOP Leans
4.) Pennsylvania
5.) Colorado
Tossups
6.) Illinois
7.) Wisconsin
8.) Nevada
9.) California
Dem Leans
10.) Washington
11.) Connecticut
12.) West Virginia
13.) Delaware - down 11
It’s not a long shot at all. With or without Delaware. Look at post #12. And we’re going to win Delaware anyway, so the point is moot.
They have made Christine O’Donnell into an independent candidate who is fighting both parties in Washington to represent the people of Delaware. Short of serious missteps by her, there’s no way that situation will lose in this environment.
Snow, Collins, Lindsey, McCain, Lugar, Corker, Hatch, Hutchinson, Cornyn and Brown are all as likely to vote with the Democrats as not. And if the Republicans do take control of the House and the Senate, what is the likelihood that voters won’t accept a change in the presidency because it might end up being all Republicans. Interesting scenarios but one step at a time. We at least need to take the House and then replace Boner and McConnell - maybe Bachmann, who may need a lot of help with her election, and DeMint.
We’ll take this now and finish it off in 2012.
And 2014. After these historic elections pass, I can’t wait for RINO primary season in 2012.
AMEN!!! AL Franken is a SENATOR!! AL FREAKING FRANKEN....MEAN NUTCASE EXTRODINAIRE!!! Thanks Karl for helping Norm Coleman NOT FIGHT that hard enough!! Franken STOLE the damn thing!!
Yup, which means O’Donnell’s win has already paid off big!
Wisconsin Senate: Johnson (R) 51%, Feingold (D) 44%
WI belongs in the ‘GOP Leans’ after today’s poll. You’re right to put WV in the Dem Leans according to polls at this point, but momentum is going our way and I expect it will lean GOP very soon.
CA is the one I have my eyes on, if Boxer can be dethroned, anyone can be dethroned.
The real break has not really occured yet, some trends are emerging, like Rob Portman destroying the D in Ohio, and WI widening, but that undecided vote have not really swung yet.
As time rolls forward though, we will see it, imho it is worth about 4% on election day..maybe more.
Everyone is forgetting that Chris Coons is a PROFESSIONAL POLITICIAN!!! He's been in office for 30 years, I think!! ENOUGH!!! People want FRESH IDEAS!! He'll be gone.
BTW, WHO is running for Mike Castle's House seat???
Concentrate on the House, control the pursestrings, and let the Dem-controlled Senate be seen as “obstructionists” when they don't vote for the GOP tax cuts, the repeal of ObamaCare, etc. Obama can't win in 2012 unless he can blame the GOP for his failings. The Dems still controlling the Senate makes that argument irrelevant to rational voters.
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