How could this NOT be a second dip?

various ^ | dangus

[dangus]

Folks, consider the following:

• ICSC-Goldman reports that same-store retail sales have fallen six of the seven past weeks; the seventh week was insignificant. Year-over-year sales growth is now only about 1 1/2%, despite significant growth earlier. IOW, sales have recessed almost back to the deepest pit of the recession.
• Auto sales have declined by 22% from last year, to the lowest August level in 28 years. IOW, the growth in sales of the last 28 years has been lost in one year.
• Also last month, new home sales fell to the lowest rate ever recorded. (The Department of Commerce first started recording new home sales in 1963.) Yup... the growth of home sales of the last 47 years has been reversed in one year. Contracts (a gauge of future sales) rose slightly... but only a tiny pittance of the decline.
• Excluding the volatile transportation sector (aircraft transactions total hundreds of millions of dollars, so move very eratically), durable goods posted their largest decline since the pit of the recession, 1 1/2 years ago.

So, homes, cars, durable goods and chain-store sales are all down sharply. The GDP measures production of goods. Produced goods must be sold, or saved as inventory. If sales are down how can the GDP grow? The increase in inventory would have to be greater than decrease in sales. But given sales decreases this immense, is that possible?

Note: There was GDP growth late last year and early this year. Yes it was far too meager to reverse the economic damage of the recession, and with a normal, or even robust recovery, the effects of recessions usually greatly outlive the decline of the GDP. Please don't respond that it can't be a second dip because the recession never ended. That's not what I'm asking.

[RachelFaith]

If this is the 2nd dip.... then prepare for an atmospheric reentry in October.

The stock market is likely to take a 20% or bigger drop.

[tired1]

Retail Capitulation: Stock Outflows Surge By Over $7.5 Billion In 18th Consecutive Week Of Record Stock Market Boycott

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/retail-capitulation-stock-outflows-surge-just-under-10-billion-18th-consecutive-week-record-

[AlexW]

My contention is that the first dip never ended, and the so called recovery was nothing but bogus accounting and manipulating the facts.

I want to puke every time I hear the term “double dip”.
It is just a double dip of BS.

[RachelFaith]

That and the end fiscal year reporting of some 10% defaults on Commercial Real Estate.

THAT bubble is going to drop THREE TIMES as hard as the consumer loan defaults of 2008.

I know!

[Mad Dawgg]

"How could this NOT be a second dip?"

Oh this is easy to explain. There is no possibility of a second dip no matter who is President.

See since a Democrat is President there is only the Republican Created recession and since Obama announced we have come out of recession going back into it would mean that Democrats caused it and since the Lame Stream Media knows only Republicans cause recessions that means we aren't going back into recession.

If a Republican was President the Lame Stream Media knows it means we were never out of recession in the first place so it couldn't be a double dip.

[AD from SpringBay]

This is not a second dip because there was not an upswing. Double-dip recession is a talking point.

[rstrahan]

Appraisers all over the US are seeing another downturn. Listings over the last month are well below sales prices from the prior six months, showing a lack of demand, coupled with increasing inventories, and a need to liquidate housing. Builders are giving as much as $100K discounts off of “list” prices in some areas just to move inventory.

[MrEdd]

Pretty much

[dangus]

Read the Note at the bottom of the article. Jeez.

[Daralundy]

Absolutely, for there to be a double dip, you have to have some sort of recovery. There hasn’t been any sort of recovery.

[eggman]

You have to understand the newspeak term Growth Recession. The government is keeping the economy from being technically in a recession through accounting gimmicks and throwing around some more stimulus that they still have stashed away. So we are not in a recession but we are in a recession. And the economy is growing but it is not really increasing in terms of dollars or jobs or anything measurable.

Just use your imagination. That's what the media is doing trying to cover up the mess we're in.

[Uncle Meat]

What’s next?Talk of a triple dip,then a quadruple dip?This is going to go on and on and on as long as numb nuts in the White Hut gets his way.

[Uncle Meat]

What’s next?Talk of a triple dip,then a quadruple dip?This is going to go on and on and on as long as numb nuts in the White Hut gets his way.

[dangus]

Oh, you’re absolutely right about the “stimulus.” click on “dangus,” and you’ll find vanities I wrote a year ago plus: “Don’t be fooled by economic growth.” Government spending itself is scored as economic activity; it doesn’t stimulate growth, it *is* growth, in the imperfect way that growth is measured by GDP. Insanely, a reduction of government spending is scored towards recession.