Posted on 07/09/2010 5:10:03 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
Sarah Palin cranked up her 2012 presidential campaign another notch today, with the release of a campaign video aimed directly at women. The basic math is simple. If she gets half of the female primary voters and caucus attenders to support her, then she standing starts at roughly 25% of the total vote. Throw in a third of the male vote and she's at roughly 40%. Forty percent wins the Iowa caucuses, handily.
Which then sets up New Hampshire as the place where the not-Sarah candidate emerges. In all likelihood, that will be former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who finished second in NH in 2008 and who will spend whatever it takes to win there in 2012.
Assuming that the race is then reduced to Palin and Romney, the next critical state primary is South Carolina. At that point, I don't think the specifics really matter. The fact is that the Republican Party of 2012 is not going to nominate a Mormon as its standard bearer. And the more important fact is that the base of the Republican Party doesn't just favor Sarah Palin, they love her. She is their standard bearer. And they will not -- this time around -- be denied.
As the Republican avalanche of 2010 builds -- and I saw a poll the other day of a Democratic-leaning state Senate district on Long Island where the "right track" (8%)/"wrong direction" (83%) was unlike anything I had ever seen -- Palin has smartly positioned herself as the champion of the conservative counter-revolution. By December, she will almost certainly be the de facto front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination.
By the time the Establishment GOP wakes up to this reality, it may be too late for them to do anything about it. Their view of Palin is that she's useful to the party because she can help keep "the Tea Party types inside the tent." And maybe she can serve coffee while she's at it. Palin's view is that (1) "the Tea Party types" are the party, (2) she is their standard bearer and (3) anyone who thinks "the Tea Party types" are there to lick envelopes and knock on doors should think again. They're there, she asserts, to take back their party and to take back their country.
"She's too stupid" is what the Establishment GOP really thinks about Sarah Palin. "Good-looking," but a "ditz." This is unfertile ground, since Palin can turn the argument on a dime and say: "They drive the country into bankruptcy, they underwrite Fannie and Freddie, they bail out Goldman Sachs, they fight wars they don't want to win, they say enforcing the immigration laws is silly and they call me stupid! I'll give you a choice: you can have their smarts or my stupidity, which one do you want?" A large number of GOP presidential primary voters will take Palin's "stupidity" in a heartbeat.
What this means is two things: (1) the pressure on former Florida Governor Jeb Bush to run for the GOP presidential nomination will increase as the year moves along, and (2) the likelihood of a strong independent party candidacy increases as Palin's support within the GOP broadens. Oh, and it also means one other thing: President Obama is not doomed.
Don’t get too close to the edge of the Earth. You might fall off./s
Jeb is the Teddy Kennedy of the Bush clan without the scandels.
Truth be told, that’s not what she said. She inferred that she wasn’t for deportation first. She said they could “register” and if they did they would not be deported. Only if they did not register would they be deported. Basically, it was a dumb form of amnesty.
Hey, onyx. I like your tagline. That would be one giant kick-butt ticket, would it not???? I might even spend some of my hard-earned money on that one. Might, my foot - gimme a pen!!!!
Hd took me out to dinner at some friends..........
Was it worth watching?
Right, they would have to register with the government, but BOR was doing the talking... and all the ILLEGAL ALIENS that did not come forward would be deported.
Her solutions mirror Glenn Beck’s. Tough as nails.
I think that is not a good response...you don’t deport 12 million people.
she could have said, 1, close border—2, register them-—(those she mentioned)...
but then a combination of green work cards and hitting the employers hard with monitoring,etc would be the next steps
You can’t default to “Deport them!”...we can’t do that with 12 million and Americans will NOT go for that.
Yes! I am TIVO-ing the replay so I can TRY to hear HER EVERY WORD.
Fiorina (RINO)
Steele(RINO)
Graham (super RINO)"
and the one you forgot
Romney (uber ultra super liberal RINO progressive democrat lite)
But you’re assuming that 12 million won’t register and that employers won’t comply. BOR wouldn’t permit her to talk.
I think most Americans will agree to the deportation of illegal aliens who are here on the welfare rolls, who have criminal records, etc. The number of those who fall under those categories are unknown and that’s a root problem that AZ is trying to address.
LSM are lying about the number of illegal aliens here It’s more like 25 - up to 50 million with the who the heck knows how many millions employed.
“According to Gallup, the country is a couple of percentage points MORE conservative today than when Ronald Reagan ran in 1980.”
Don’t confuse them with facts, Al. Facts are stupid things, as a sage once said. LOL
Awesome, I mean AWESOME!!!!!!! I’ve got my pen in hand.
I know Jeb Bush is poison fruit around here. But it is a mistake to discount him - if he goes for it. Just sayin’.
I agree with your stats and other points...Sarah needs to bring up a clear point by point plan and be able to do it even with the likes of Oreilly...tonight she didn’t.that is not good enough. she has to get past this .
Broken record Rabadash RAbs, and this from someone who would stab is brother in the back to vote for Ron Paul.......
Ron Paul. The ultimate RINO!
We all know the reason you're anti-Palin. It ain't a secret anymore........
Wow.
LOL. It will be an election to remember. WINNER!
Greta will interview her and give her the chance to talk. BOR doesn’t interview. He interrupts.
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