AP Photo - National Guard members talk with waitresses about the procedures for filing an oil spill claim against BP. Agree with you on that one, but we do have at least one methane deposit down there that was above the oil deposit. That methane came up and melted the rig. So the ground down there probably contains many pockets. It is at the bottom of an ocean. Worse case would be a significant shifting of land. A landslide. I would only expect to see that however after a nuke is used. We are however drilling two relief wells into the same sea bed.
AP Photo - National Guard members talk with waitresses about the procedures for filing an oil spill claim against BP.It’s not a good idea to second guess the theoildrum.com. They have a clue and only lack information about the well and the surrounding geological formation to come to a definitive answer.
It’s no surprise the well casing it not intact the entire distance since we already know that 1. BP didn’t install a rubber seal in a transition from bigger to smaller well casing. 2. Their cement job failed to secure the well casing to the surrounding earth (called formation), that is, pumping cement into any void between the outside of the well casing to the surrounding earth to turn those voids into solid mass so nothing leaks around or past, that didn’t happen at certain elevation.
The geology of the area is like...sand, mud, sand, mud in layer after layer following the seasonal outflows of Mississippi silts. It’s not like they drilled through any solid rock formation.
Along with the oil and gas flowing up and out is abrasives like sand at high pressure at least 8,000psi at the BOP/wellhead, the reservoir of oil/gas is under pressure of near 13,000psi finding its way up starting at the bottom of the well casing about an 8 inch pipe in diameter. Gets larger in diameter as you go up to about 36” at the well head.
Knowing these tidbits, you can see where erosion can take place anywhere along the well casing where it is not intact. Erosion (sand traveling at high speed = sandblasting or in this case water jetting) can wear steel pipe into non-existence or the earth itself causing more voids as it flows freely to the least path of resistance or maybe worse, turbulent areas of flow causing carving.
So you can see why TOD foresees a complete failure in the future. Anchor lines to the BOP will be conformation and fumbles observing oil seeping anywhere from the mud around the casing and sea floor means the end is near and get the nuke ready.
No one dare speak of hurricane related complications for at the very least BP has to pull off and let oil gush freely into the GOM until seas settle down.