Here are the Dems up for reelection this year. How many do you count as possible "Nay" votes for reconciliation ...
Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas
Barbara Boxer of California
Michael Bennet of Colorado
Daniel Inouye of Hawaii
Barbara Mikulski of Maryland
Harry Reid of Nevada
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
Chuck Schumer of New York
Ron Wyden of Oregon
Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania
Patrick Leahy of Vermont
Patty Murray of Washington
Russ Feingold of Wisconsin
With the exception of possibly Lincoln, I believe none of these criminals will have a problem using either Budget Reconciliation or the so-called "nuclear option", if it should come to that.
As for the ones who aren't up this year, I think Bayh, because he won't be standing for reelection again, is much less likely to oppose the bill. Nelson might not, but if he's been bought before, he can be bought again - the same for Landrieu. I can't think of any other Dem Senators who wouldn't happily cram this down the throat of America.
I think that our hopes don't lie with Senate, but with the House - where they only had a two-vote margin the first time this came up, and that was before the exit by Wexler, the death of Murtha and the promise by Stupak (a guy who doesn't joke about abortion) to NOT vote for any bill containing the Senate abortion language, same goes for Cao. It seems to me that Nancy is at least two votes short, perhaps more considering ALL the Dems, especially the "Blue Dogs" are up for reelection this year.
I agree with your analysis of the Senators who are up for re-election. I somehow feel that some Democrats who are not even up for re-election may grow a backbone and a conscience for the Nation’s welfare and vote against ObamaCare.
With regard to the House: Because the House already passed their version of the bill and the Senate will substitute the text of its own bill for the House text when it sends the bill back to the House, no NEW vote in the House will take place.
There are alot of potential delay tactics all over the place that the Repubs can employ, however, unless they delay until after the midterm election, Obamacare is likely to pass.
Here’s a GREAT article on the reconciliation process:
“Uh Oh—What If Reconciliation Isn’t Quick?”
http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-treatment/uh-oh-what-if-reconciliation-isnt-quick