So you’re saying Scozzafava was hugely unpopular? Was that true from day one, or only after her extreme liberalism was dragged into public view? My information suggests she was doing quite well until a robust public debate ensued about her real political locus. That model still works for the (Giannoulias vs Kirk) vs (Republican X in Exile) equation.
It is not a given that Illinois’ Republican and conservative voters will support Kirk once they come to fully understand him, especially if, at the same time, they can be reassured there is a real alternative that they will be able to vote for. That’s why a broad, effective communication plan is essential to make this work. If that plan gets neutered by doubt, despair, and defeatism among those best qualified to implement it, continued failure will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
1) vote for Kirk
2) vote for the dem
3) stay home
4) vote 3d party. Now, since the conservative didn't come close to winning vs. Kirk, you have a hard time convincing me that any conservative as a 3d party guy can beat Kirk. But if you think you can make that case go for it.