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Hoffman will win in the Nov 2010 race. He will be congressman

Just like Tom Bordanaro. Oh wait ...

Bordanaro lost his special election[1] in March 1998 because:

He was running against the widow of the idiot who died in office and who didn't know where San Luis Obispo was in his first campaign. Mrs. Capps carried San Luis Obispo.
As well intentioned as it might have been, the excessive 3rd party pro life ads that promoted him turned everyone's stomachs, including my mother's and she's very conservative.
He ran as a "compassionate conservative".

The special election was close. The general election rematch later in the year was not. Bordanaro had the off year advantage of running against the party holding the White House. Mrs. Capps is still the rep for that district despite winning national press for adding a tattoo removal parlor for San Luis Obispo to a spending bill and despite promising to term limit herself to six years.

You're delusional if you think it's an advantage to attack a house seat against a sitting incumbent.

[1] We were 22nd district before the 2001 redistricting. 23rd district now.