Ah yes, the
"Smoke" article, that lays out four possible ways to get a HI Certification in 1961:
BC1 - Born in a hospital or attended by doctor or midwife;
BC2 – Unattended birth, no hospital, doctor or nurse midwife;
BC3 – Delayed Certificate less than one year;
BC4 – Certificate of Hawaiian Birth.
The article that concludes that
"
The fact that Obama refuses to release the vault birth certificate that would instantly clear up this matter almost certainly indicates that the vault birth certificate is probably a BC2 or possibly a BC3..."
then, a few lines later, declares that the COLB may
"
almost certainly [be] a BC3 or even a BC4..."
BC2 – Unattended birth, no hospital, doctor or nurse midwife.The article doesn't really explain why the COLB is "probably" based on a BC2, and also doesn't address the fact that according to
CDC statistics, there were 17,616 births in Hawaii, of which only 100 were "unattended" births. So, even though the chances of any Hawaiian birth falling within the "BC2" category was
0.00568
%, the article concludes that Obama's BC "probably" was one of these types of BCs.
BC3 – Delayed Certificate less than one year. This "almost certain" option is based on H.R.L. § 57-19 which provides:
Procedure concerning delayed and altered certificates.
(a) Certificates accepted subsequent to 30 days after the time prescribed filing, and certificates which have been altered after being filed with the registrar general, shall contain the date of the delayed filing and the date of the alteration, and be marked distinctly “delayed” or “altered.”
Of course, we know that whatever certificate or certification (even if "fraudulent") that was filed was filed within days of Obama's birth, because the Health Bureau reported it to local papers. Therefore, the only "almost certain" (or certain) thing is that a "BC3" could not possibly be the type of certificate or certification filed by whomever on behalf of Obama.
BC4 – Certificate of Hawaiian Birth.This is the other type that the article contends the COLB "almost certainly" is. According to the article,
"If a child is born in Hawaii, for whom no physician or mid wife filed a certificate of live birth, and for whom no Delayed Certificate was filed before the first birthday, then a Certificate of Hawaiian Birth could be issued upon testimony of an adult (including the subject person [i.e. the birth child as an adult]) if the Office of the Lieutenant Governor was satisfied that a person was born in Hawaii, provided that the person had attained the age of one year...."
Again, we know that something, fraudulent or not, was filed with the Hawaii Health Statistics Bureau within days of his birth. Therefore, the only thing certain or almost certain is that "BC4" could not possibly be the type of certificate/certification filed for Obama.