The premise of Palin's supposed 2010 problems if she were to seek re-election is Dan Fagan's assertion that Palin's AGIA plan will tank because TransCanada will not have a successful open season in 2010 because the big three oil producers will refuse to commit their gas.
Little problem with this scenario. The AGIA plan is committed to ensuring that it will be profitable for the oil producers to ship through TC's pipeline. If they can prove that the oil producers are refusing to ship despite the profitability of doing so, then the state can revoke their leases. The state has revoked Exxon's lease to drill for oil on Point Thompson. It's not the same deal as revoking the lease for natural gas, but it's the same principle. They either use it or lose it.
Conoco is playing with their Denali plan, and it's very doubtful that it will even get off the ground.
BTW, the leading newspaper on the Alaskan oil industry, The Petroleum News, has a great article on the potential for a successful open season.
This is called "negotiation." The oil producers are trying to scare the state into giving them everything they want. The idea that the oil companies are "friendly" to free market capitalism is a friggin' joke. They regularly sit on leases and lower production in order to manipulate the price of their product. That's their prerogative. They're in this to make money. But the state doesn't need to roll over for them -- especially in the case of Alaska where the people own the resources and the oil producers must pay them for extracting it.
Take a look at this [see the section 6:56-7:25 of this video] for a succinct description for why corporations are "opportunists" not "free market capitalists".
Vote for her in the Senate 2010 election.