There has always been controversy as to the year of birth, but with a little sleuthing it is quite easy to determine it.
The time of year was obviously during the fall Festivals for a host reasons that we won't bother with now.
King Herod is the key and his period of reign may be verified by secular history. Our Lord was born in the days of King Herod [Matthew 2:1] and we also know that it was near the time of Herod's death [Matthew 2:13-15].
Herod went Rome during the winter "And thus did this man receive the kingdom, having obtained it on the hundred and eighty fourth Olympiad, when Caius Domitus Calvinus was consul the second time and Caius Asinius Pollio (the first time)". [Josephus, Antiquities, 14:14:5]
Olympiads were four years and were figured from July to July. The 184th Olympiad was July 44 B.C. to July 40 B.C. and Calvinius and Pollio were consuls in the year 714 AUC, which would have been 40 B.C. (AUC means from the year of the founding of Rome...."Handbook of Biblical Chronology").
The calendar years for Consuls were reckoned from January to January and when you combine this data with the July to July length of the Olympiads you can then figure out exactly when this occurred......with in a 6 month margin of error. In addition we are told that Herod's reign in Jerusalem began when the rigor of winter was over....in his third year since he had been made king at Rome [Josephus, Antiquities, 14:15:14]
But.....Herod was unable to take the city of Jerusalem until the summer when Marcus Agrippa and Canninius Gallus were consuls of Rome, on the hundred eighty and fifth Olympiad....in the third month on the solemnity of the Fast [Josephus, Antiquities, 14:16:2-4]. The 185th Olympiad was from July 40 B.C. to July 36 B.C. and Agrippa and Gallus were consuls in 717 AUC....or the year 37 B.C. The fast of the third month would have been Sivan 23 and Herod completed the conquest of the city in the summer of 37 B.C. When you put all these facts together this is what emerges.....Herod crowned in Rome January/March 40 B.C. and began reigning in Jerusalem a little over 3 1/3 years later (37 B.C.) Herod died having reigned since he had Antigonus put to death.....34 years , but 37 years since he had been declared King by the Romans [Josephus, Antiquities, 17:8:1] Josephus tells us that Antigonus was killed shortly after Herod took Jerusalem, [Antiquities 14:16:4] Herod began his reign in 40 B.C., reigned 37 years.......so, including the first year of his reign.....he would have died in 4 B.C.
Our Lord was born in 5 B.C. and began His ministry (30 years of age) [Luke 3:23] during the 15th year of the reign of Tiberius [Luke 3:1]. This is confusing to many folks as they do not consider that Tiberius co-reigned with Augustus for two years. The key to this dispute is the Battle of Actium which took place during the 187th Olympiad in the seventh year of the reign of Herod [Antiquities 15:5:1-2]. This Olympiad would have been from July 32 B.C. to July 28 B.C. and Herod's 7th year was 31 B.C. to 30 B.C.
Augustus ruled 44 years from the victory at Actium...the last two....jointly with Tiberius. Thus the co rulership began in 12 A.D. and the 15th year of Tiberius would have been 26/27 A.D.
During the first Passover of His ministry the Jews stated that the temple had been 46 years in the building [John 2:20]. The first Passover would have been 27 A.D. [Josephus, Antiquities 15:11:1] says: "And now Herod, in the eighteenth year of his reign (18 in Jerusalem...but 21 from his coronation in Rome) undertook a very great work, that is to build of himself the Temple of God". The 18th year of Herod's reign was 20 B.C./19 B.C. which was the first year of the building of the Temple. This means that the 46th year would have been 27 A.D.
Our Lord celebrated three Passovers in scripture [John 2:13][John 6:4] and [John 13:1] so it is assumed that He had a three and one half year ministry, being born during the fall Festivals and Crucified on Passover. The year according to my reckoning would be 30 A.D. and as you can see the Crucifixion on Nisan 14 (Passover) [Leviticus 23:5] would then allow a three day entombment with a Sabbath resurrection on Nisan 17 [Matthew 12:39-40].
You have provided a tremendous amont of info here, for which I am grateful. Please allow me sufficient time to absorb it.
Your case is quite compelling. Your info regarding the year of His birth and death actually seem to be correct. However, I am fairly certain He was born in late December and not the fall, as you suggest.
I’d like to see your evidence to the contrary.