No, as it is in most elections, turnout will be everything.
I think you're wrong, because this election is different. Your comment is based upon straight party-line voting. This one's different in that I know of quite a few Dems who might vote for McCain if they are convinced he has the answers. I think the turnout will be the highest in recent history...I don't worry about that. What I worry about is what they do in that little booth when they close the door.