Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Losing Sevastopol - Ukraine in NATO removes Russian Black Sea fleet's port
NRO's The Corner ^ | 8-14-08 | email to Rich Lowry

Posted on 08/14/2008 7:47:12 PM PDT by SeafoodGumbo

This email Rich Lowry received from a friend makes a lot of sense.

----

Rich, I have advocated not pushing NATO membership for Ukraine or Georgia against Russian objections, but if Russia detaches the two breakaway provinces from Georgia, I think fast induction into NATO should be the centerpiece of our response. In the short term, Rice should include a visit to Berlin in her travel; that is where the obstacle to NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia resides; she should convince them that Russian alteration of international borders through violence must have strategic consequences for Russia. And I don't mean expulsion from the G8 or boycotting the Olympics. I mean something more like ... losing Sevastopol.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is based at Sevastopol (as it has been for eons) under a 20-year lease that expires on 2017. The Ukrainian government has made it clear that Russia can forget about renewing the lease. Sevastopol is on the Crimea peninsula, which is majority ethnically Russian (unlike Abkhazia or South Ossetia, which are not actually Russian) and many leading Russians have said they will never give it back. Fast-tracking NATO membership for Ukraine and stationing significant NATO forces there, and making clear that the defense of Ukraine's territorial integrity is their role, will guarantee that the Crimea stays Ukrainian and that Sevastopol passes from Russian hands within 10 years. There may not be a suitable alternative deep-water port on the Black Sea large enough to base Russia's Black Sea fleet. Russia's ability to dominate the Black Sea and project force into the Eastern Mediterranean could be turned back to the 18th century.

We are not going to go to war over the secession of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In our rash recognition of Kosovo, we embraced the principle that justice and self-determination can trump the territorial integrity of sovereign states; in so doing we killed the Helsinki Accords (under which the Soviet empire in Europe was liquidated without any revision of borders) and can no longer stand on them. When the Russians now say "justice" and "self-determination" they are slapping us with our own text.

But there is another dimension to this — the balance of power. Russia knows that its invasion of a democratic U.S. ally and forcible alteration of its borders is a heavy strategic blow to the United States: it makes a mockery of the value of an alliance with us. Russia must be made to see that its action will be answered by an even more grievous strategic blow. The loss of Sevastopol — Russia's equivalent of Norfolk — is the perfect punishment. And what a great new base it would make for the U.S. Sixth Fleet.

Ukraine, Georgia — welcome to NATO.



TOPICS: Military/Veterans
KEYWORDS: ezekiel; geopolitics; georgia; gogmagog; magog; putin; russia; sevastopol; ukraine
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-44 next last
To: ken21
angela merkel, the chancellor of germany helped create this mess by rejecting.

Merkel wanted Georgia to settle it's disputes with Russian backed South Ossetian and Abkhazian rebels before she would vote to let Georgia into NATO.

I guess Merkel doesn't see the irony in that. LOL!

Maybe she will now.

21 posted on 08/14/2008 8:41:53 PM PDT by FreeReign
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: FreeReign

yeah, i know.

it’s a laugh.

but the euro’s are the ones that will suffer directly, maybe they’ll wake up.


22 posted on 08/14/2008 8:42:54 PM PDT by ken21 (people die and you never hear from them again.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: eastforker

Aren’t we sending the Navy to Poti with ‘humanitarian aid’?

Perhaps Bush is hitting back where he needs to.


23 posted on 08/14/2008 8:43:59 PM PDT by Tramonto (Regime change in Russia)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: FreeReign

also, the euro’s derisively refer to president bush as the “cowboy president”.

meanwhile, they welcomed barry obama.

now, i wonder if they’ll change their tunes?


24 posted on 08/14/2008 8:45:46 PM PDT by ken21 (people die and you never hear from them again.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: Tramonto

Don’t bet on it and if the USN does it will be brief. The fight over that port would spark WWIII, russia’s navy can not survive without a warm water port and poti will be the only one.


25 posted on 08/14/2008 8:46:38 PM PDT by eastforker (Get-R-Done and then Bring-Em- Home)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: Wiseghy
"Europe had better wake up to the New Cold War. And, to be fair, so had OUR electorate."

You'l need to wake up our scum-bag members of congress too.

26 posted on 08/14/2008 8:47:56 PM PDT by blam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: eastforker
Don’t bet on it and if the USN does it will be brief. The fight over that port would spark WWIII, russia’s navy can not survive without a warm water port and poti will be the only one.

Can't the Russians create a new port on the Black Sea using their own coast line, or even in Abkhazia?

27 posted on 08/14/2008 8:49:39 PM PDT by FreeReign
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: eastforker

So bringing Georgia and Ukraine into NATO would automatically start WWIII?


28 posted on 08/14/2008 8:52:05 PM PDT by Tramonto (Regime change in Russia)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: eastforker

Poti is no Sevastapol.


29 posted on 08/14/2008 8:58:38 PM PDT by StAthanasiustheGreat (Vocatus Atque Non Vocatus Deus Aderit)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Tramonto

No, the port of poti. The ukraine will be part of nato, sevastopol will be off limits to russia. Poti is a warm water port that Russia needs, thats what this is all about.


30 posted on 08/14/2008 8:59:20 PM PDT by eastforker (Get-R-Done and then Bring-Em- Home)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: StAthanasiustheGreat

No but it is rail served and it does not have immediate surrounding mountains, good area for shipyard.easy access.You watch and see.


31 posted on 08/14/2008 9:01:18 PM PDT by eastforker (Get-R-Done and then Bring-Em- Home)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: eastforker
The city of Novorossiysk has a port.

Link

May need work, I don't know but it would probably be less costly than starting WWIII.

32 posted on 08/14/2008 9:04:37 PM PDT by FreeReign
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: FreeReign

Thats commercial trade port. Russia needs a naval base, we shall see.


33 posted on 08/14/2008 9:10:31 PM PDT by eastforker (Get-R-Done and then Bring-Em- Home)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: SeafoodGumbo
thanks, this is very interesting....
34 posted on 08/14/2008 9:11:07 PM PDT by skinkinthegrass (If you aren't "advancing" your arguments,your losing "the battle of Ideas"...libs,hates the facts 8^)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeafoodGumbo

RUSSIA AND UKRAINE DISPUTE OVER SEVASTOPOL

July 13, 2008

David Marples

At the entrance to Sevastopol harbor a giant monument commemorates the city’s attainment of “hero” status during the Second World War. Closer to the shore one sees a blue-yellow Ukrainian flag surrounded by the Russian tricolor, which flies from all the taller buildings. Sevastopol, it appears, has an identity crisis and is claimed by two countries: Ukraine, its present owner, and Russia, its former one.

The city was founded by Empress Catherine II in 1783 following Russia’s southern expansion and annexation of the Crimean peninsula. By the mid-19th century it was the site of the most serious European conflict in several decades, when Britain, France, and Turkey joined forces against Russia and laid siege to the great port for more than a year. In the nearby suburb of Balaklava, a suicidal British attack based on misunderstood orders is remembered as the “charge of the Light Brigade.”

Russia was defeated in this war, Sevastopol fell, and for the next fourteen years Russia was not allowed to construct any fortifications or bases in the area of the Black Sea. Under Alexander II, Russia eventually renounced this treaty.

During the Second World War, German and Romanian forces also laid siege to the port, which resisted staunchly. Stalin was to reward the city for its endurance but was incensed at what he perceived as collaboration by the Crimean Tatars and later in the war he deported them en masse to the east. Only in the 1980s were they permitted to return.

The history of the great port, in short, is one of violence and conflict. Virtually every corner has a monument or dedication to one of the wars it endured.

In 1954, to mark the 300th anniversary of the so-called Treaty of Friendship between Ukraine and Russia at Pereyaslav–the goal was to prevent Bohdan Khmelnytsky’s Cossack army from being overrun by the Poles–Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev made Ukraine a gift of the Crimean peninsula. Ostensibly that gift also included Sevastopol. When Ukraine became independent in 1991, it also laid claim to the city as well as the Soviet Black Sea fleet. Russia demurred and serious conflict ensued.

In May 1997 that dispute was resolved temporarily by a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation between Russia and Ukraine that seemed comprehensive. The fleet by then was already divided–Russia had 83% of the warships–and the Russians agreed on a 20-year lease of three main harbors and two airstrips for a payment of about $100 million. The treaty stated expressly that Sevastopol belonged to Ukraine.

Many Russian leaders have never accepted the loss of Catherine’s port. In early June, Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov demanded the withdrawal of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol from Ukraine and their transferal to Russia. His comments, which earned him a ban from traveling to Ukraine, followed a statement from the Russian parliament that Ukraine’s potential entry into NATO would terminate the 1997 Friendship Treaty. Ukraine is concerned also about territorial violations in exercises involving the sailors. The latter are also housed thanks to subsidies from Moscow.

On June 24, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, clearly following directions from President Viktor Yushchenko, declared that the lease on Sevastopol would not be renewed and the Russian Fleet must leave the city by May 29, 2017.

There is another dispute concerning the possible expansion of the Russian fleet. At its peak in the 1980s the Black Sea Fleet had over 630 warships and submarines with a maximum of 70,000 sailors and other personnel. Today the fleet is a shadow of its former self with 35 warships and 11,000 personnel. Russia would like to increase those figures respectively to 100 and 25,000, which it claims is permissible by the terms of the 1997 treaty. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, on the other hand, claims that no increase in warships is allowed.

From Ukraine’s perspective it is illogical to raise the size of the Russian fleet prior to its withdrawal in less than nine years’ time. Russia claims the fleet is vital to its national interests. It pays for the lease through the cancellation of Ukraine’s energy debts and would likely demand immediate payment were the fleet ejected. It has begun construction of a new naval base on the eastern seaboard at Novorossiisk but the location is less ideal and lacks the spacious harbors of Sevastopol.

The city itself is composed predominantly of ethnic Russians (over 70%) and is virtually 100% Russian speaking. It was a closed city during the Soviet period and close to a weapons base, the remains of which are visible on the hillside overlooking the port. In elections it has consistently backed the pro-Russian Regions Party led by Viktor Yanukovych.

The problem has no easy solution. Sevastopol is a cradle of Russian imperial ambitions and of Russian “military glory.” It was founded by Russia. But legally Crimea, though autonomous, is Ukrainian. And Ukraine’s strategic interests–at least as long as Yushchenko remains president–are with the West and NATO, membership of which is anticipated in the near future.

Under such circumstances, implicitly at least, the Russian Black Sea Fleet would form a part of a hostile military bloc and occupy the same port as the smaller Ukrainian Black Sea Fleet. Could it be evicted physically if the Russian government refuses to remove? While Ukraine remains outside NATO it seems unlikely. It seems equally implausible that the two countries would go to war over the status of the city and its fleet. But time is running out for a solution.

(This article appeared originally in the EDMONTON JOURNAL, 28 June 200 8)

AUTHOR INFORMATION
<< Back To Archives



Full Name

David Marples





Biography

David R. Marples is Professor of History and Classics at the University Alberta in Edmonton. He is the author of ten books on Soviet and post-Soviet affairs, including BELARUS: FROM SOVIET RULE TO NUCLEAR CATASTROPHE (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1996) AND BELARUS: A DENATIONALIZED NATION (Amsterdam: Harwood Academic Publishers, 1999).

 


35 posted on 08/14/2008 10:16:07 PM PDT by JerseyHighlander
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeafoodGumbo

This is sensible.

For one thing, it gives the U.S. practical benefits, since, as always, it is the U.S. that will end up doing any heavy lifting that needs to be done to defend freedom and territorial integrity in Europe.

I sure hope McCain can convince Condi to run as his VP. She would bring a lot to his administration.


36 posted on 08/14/2008 10:33:33 PM PDT by fightinJAG (Rush was right when he said: "You NEVER win by losing.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: StAthanasiustheGreat

We also need to immediately get out of our space exploration relationship with Russia.


37 posted on 08/14/2008 10:35:25 PM PDT by fightinJAG (Rush was right when he said: "You NEVER win by losing.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: ken21

I am struck by the sharp contrast between Obambi’s joke-rockstar tour and the real work of Condi Rice in Europe, representing a real administration, working on real crises with real world leaders.

A few weeks ago, Europe was hailing the triumph of the post-racial world, as embodies in Obambi.

Guess they forgot about Condi.

Condi for VP!


38 posted on 08/14/2008 10:40:23 PM PDT by fightinJAG (Rush was right when he said: "You NEVER win by losing.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: fightinJAG

i like condi.

i always have, since she first came to national attention.

i can’t remember when i first heard of her; she got her masters in international relations from du. and i’m from denver.

i guess i first heard about her as a piano prodigy.


39 posted on 08/15/2008 6:39:33 AM PDT by ken21 (people die and you never hear from them again.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: fightinJAG

Condi should have been at work within hours of the invasion. In fact, they should have had plans drawn up in advance on how to handle the situation.

The ‘we have all the time in the world’ attitude both GWB & Condi took was not helpful in the least.

Condi has been a disappointment at State, and would be a disaster as VP.


40 posted on 08/15/2008 7:26:46 AM PDT by Mr Rogers (Old, pale and stale - McCain in 2008! but we're only one vote away from losing the 2nd amendment...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-44 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson