You're ignoring the Hillary Factor.
Absolutely not. That's why I started my post with "Unity, NH" where Hillary buried the hatchet (in BHO's back?! )
Her public attacks on him were the only ones which could get some play in the press, that hurt BHO without hurting McCain.
From here on out, BHO cannot be hit. Mark my Post!
Even if Hillary! unleashes something in the background, it will be blamed on racist Republicans, and BHO will be able to use it to his advantage.
And McCain obviously will not take him on directly, and Hillary is going to smile publicly and certainly not stab him directly.
Hillary was out-teflon'd by BHO. She may be able to bloody him up for a fight in 2012 in the background....but she will see that the Republicans pay an even higher price.