Because of the changes, not the least of which are the now front loaded primaries, this is not comparable 20 years ago or older primary seasons; yet all of the prerequisits are still in places.... having major financial and political backing, BIG GUN advisers and teams on the ground, in all or at the least, a majority of states. Name recognition and an optimistic demeanor are also a must!
My earliest lesson in realpolitik was going door to door for Barry Goldwater--and by the way how different is the Republican/Bush prescription drug measure from its roots in LBJs Medicare.
The LBJ victory brought the Vietnam defeat--November 1965 he told the Joint Chiefs they could not mine Haiphong and bomb Hanoi. Hillary has already told us January 20 2009 at noon-fifteen she'll end the Iraq war.
Not to mention Lani Gunier and Janet Reno to follow Ruth Bader Ginsberg.
Can Newt or Mitt win the nomination. If so, I will fight for them.
But third party to insure Ahmadinejad has time and cover to amass his nuclear armory--no.
A moral victory--again no.