Mosnews: Chechnya stage set with Kadyrov's appointment
NEWS ANALYSIS; No. 07
CHECHNYA STAGE SET WITH KADYROV'S APPOINTMENT
By Anna Arutunyan The Moscow News
President Vladimir Putin appointed Chechen premier Ramzan Kadyrov as
acting president of the volatile southern republic,replacing President
Alu Alkhanov and ending months of speculations about a power struggle
between the two leaders. The move was sudden, but not unexpected,
especially considering the Kremlin's long-term policy that stakes the
future of Chechnya's stability onthe Kadyrov clan.
In a decree signed last Thursday, Putin accepted Alkhanov's
resignation and appointed Kadyrov, who has been seen as Chechnya's
de-facto ruler since the death of his father Akhmad Kadyrov in 2004,to
the post of acting president. The appointment was more of a formality,
which fortified Kadyrov's rule and recognized him as a leader who has
established Putin's trust.
He is a guarantor that Chechnya is finally on its way to order and
stability, as the Kremlin itself prepares for a transfer of power in
2008.
Launching the regional presidential campaign, Dmitri
Kozak,presidential envoy to the Southern Federal District, of which
Chechnya is a part, traveled to Grozny this week to nominate
threecandidates for presidency. Besides Kadyrov, who's appointment is
a virtual certainty, Kozak named Muslim Khuchiyev, the leader of the
regional faction of the Spravedlivaya Rossiya (A Just Russia)party,
and Grozny administrative head Shaid Dzhamaldayev. Putin nowhas 14
days to choose his favored candidate, who will be then approved by the
Chechen parliament (public elections in the regions were done away
with in 2004). By as early as Friday, before the other candidates were
announced, United Russia, the pro-Kremlin majority, threw its support
behind Kadyrov. State Duma speaker Boris Gryzlov told journalists that
his party was prepared to support the de-facto Chechen leader.
Alkhanov had stressed that his resignation was a personal decision.
However, the move contrasted starkly with previous stances where he
insisted that he had no intention of abandoning his post. Meanwhile,
despite his relative autonomy, Russian media viewed the Chechen
president as incapable of withstanding any pressure from Kadyrov. Talk
of Alkhanov's resignation has persisted throughout Kadyrov's tenure as
premier. In May 2006, the two leaders met with President Putin in the
Kremlin to mediate an apparent power struggle. The meeting ended with
Putin dismissing the idea of Alkhanov's resignation.
Meanwhile, Kadyrov has repeatedly dismissed his ownpresidential
ambitions.
"I have not yet adapted myself to the role of president, and I say
again that I am not ready to be president," Kadyrov reportedly said at
a Monday press conference in Grozny. He added, however,"Whatever Putin
decides is what will be."
Nevertheless, the new leader has pressed ahead with plans for the
future.
This week, he launched a round table discussion dedicated to
strategies for rebuilding the war-torn province. He also spoke out
against an agreement that would delimitate spheres of power between
Moscow and Grozny, allotting Grozny more control over its oil. The
Vremya Novostei daily speculated that Kadyrov made this statementas a
favor to the Kremlin, in return for his appointment as acting
president. Still, the new acting president persisted in his attemptsto
establish more control over the republic's oil. Another statement
interpreted as an attempt to placate Putin was Kadyrov's allegation
that the exiled business tycoon Boris Berezovsky was behind the
murders of crusading journalist Anna Politkovskaya and former
intelligence officer Alexander Litvinenko.
Despite being referred to as a "warlord" in the Western press,Kadyrov
elicits either respect or indifference from the general population. A
poll conducted days before his appointment by the All-Russian Public
Opinion Research Center (VTSIOM) suggests that about 43 percent view
Kadyrov positively, while about a third - 34percent - were indifferent.
Indeed, Sergei Markedonov, a political expert specializing inthe
Caucasus region at the Moscow-based Institute of Political and
Military Analysis, says that Alkhanov's dismissal came at a pointwhen
"he lost the information war," despite being elected as president
earlier.
But another view was that Moscow's dependence on Kadyrov forstability
was dangerous. Mikhail Remizov of the Institute of National Strategies
was quoted in the Kommersant daily as saying that Kadyrov's latest
programs, as well as his insistence on more leverage from Moscow,
point to Russia's "capitulation."
"We don't value loyal people like Alkhanov, who, unlike Kadyrov's
clan, was always on Moscow's side." Remizov speculated that Kadyrov
could well use the prospect of new military conflicts in the region as
a playing card.
Markedonov also had grim views on what Kadyrov's appointment entails
for Russia as a whole. "This appointment shows a serious dependence by
Russia's government on the situation in Chechnya," hesaid in an
interview. "I don't even see where the tail that wagsthe dog is."
"The whole point of the deal is that Kadyrov upholds order onhis own
terms, but demonstrates that he is loyal to Moscow," hesays. "This is
good for the Kremlin, which can show that there ispeace in Chechnya,
and it is good for Kadyrov, who gets to privatize power in Chechnya."
He called this kind of dangerous balance a "regional apartheid," and
went as far as to compare it to Moscow's 18th century deal with the
Crimean Tartars, who were paid not to overrun Russia's southern lands.
Echoing other experts, Markedonov believes that Putin's stake on
Kadyrov is a crucial factor for the future of Russia itself."The idea
of a third term for Putin rests on the Chechen issue," he said. Before
Putin can decide how he transfers power, he must be certain of a
dependable strongman in Chechnya. Putin's personal pact with Kadyrov,
moreover, could play a role in keeping the president for a third term,
despite his insistence that he has no plans to run against the
constitution. "In the Kremlin they might think that everything is
worked out with Kadyrov, everything is predictable... and insist that
Putin stays to protect that status quo".
Generally, however, Markedonov feels that Chechens are weary of war,
and that there are other mechanisms of maintaining stability besides
Putin's one-on-one "pact" with Kadyrov. MN
And no one thought to get on their kneesGod knows, how many years ago that was written, but nothing has changed. Yes, and why should it?
And tell these kids that in a worthless country
Even the brightest achievements they are but steps
Into eternal precipices of an inaccessible Spring...Aquarium, That, which I should say, Album: Library of Babylon (1993)