[Paleo Conservative]

If you want on or off the aerospace ping list, please contact me by Freep mail.

[SW6906]

Got this at work today, but it was as an official Teal Group market analysis (read: paid for via subscription), so I didn't think it could even be passed on in an email, let alone posted. Glad to see it is the public domain.

May it get read far and wide. Absolutely devastating in what he says and spot-on in his analysis.

I doubt the Germans - let alone the French - would be willing to take the hit to national pride it would take to abandon the A380. They will let it's failure be their downfall. I fear they will end up being rescued by their governments via subsisdies and a bloody trade war will ensue as there is no way a bailout of Airbus can be seen as fair under WTO rules. Boeing would be stupid not to fight this one to the bitter end.

[phantomworker]

...the market doesn’t want a monopoly. Customers will encourage anything Airbus does to reinvent its product line. That’s another reason to think about canceling the A380 and moving on.

Makes a lot of sense. What would Boeing do without a competitor?

[verity]

Aside from the content, this is a remarkably well written article.