Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB
For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.
The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.
I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.
There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.
Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.
So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.
However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.
I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."
At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.
I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.
With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.
This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.
With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."
Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.
With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.
These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.
I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.
I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....
But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.
As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.
Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.
If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.
Very busy here - will talk to y'all tomorrow. My parents in FL had no issues with the hurricane, but some of their friends further south or nearer the coast lost power or (eek!) cable!
Good evening to all!
Later! Take care of all of you.
I (for one) have missed you!
Thanks!
Hi, fanfan! I recently implemented a solution to the single-phone-line multiple-user issue; I built up an old machine with FreeSCO software and a modem to create a dial-up firewall for the house net. Add the borrowed WiFi access point on the net, I can get 26kbps dialup from anywhere in the house. *\;-) Even on my old WiFi-capable PDA. *\;-) And multiple users can access the Internet at the same, though it can get slow if we're both loading material at the same time.
I keep hoping for the one they've been promising us, but all I see are blue skies. (with clouds) *\:-(
There was a sudden increase in the humidity last night that woke me up about 4 AM.
I kow what you said. It made perfect sense while I was reading it. And after my eyes got to the last period, I said, "WHAT????"
*sigh*
One of "those" days. I DID make it to church today, so the day was not lost...I just wore my cute little self out, talking with all the folks I haven't seen in a while.
Are you going to bed early to make up for last night?
(It's kinda like sex...you can never catch up on what you missed!)
;o]
A co-worker has family there. Those poor people.
OTOH, they get warning. I live in an area overdue for a 9+ earthqua
103/15% here, today...people think I'm crazy when I tell them I like it this way. They always think I'm joking...I'm not.
If it is still hot tomorrow, I'm going to the pool again...;o]
I was watching something on that yesterday. Interesting, but I don't want to live on the Sound. At least in anything more than a single story house...
We have a network in the house (really, it's all in this one room). When the dial-up firewall has connected to the ISP we can *both* access the Internet through it at the same time. Typically I'm reading FR while she's checking her e-mail.
When a 9+ occurs you probably ought to be living...
...somewhere else.
Thanks for being patient with me. Some days, I can't even follow a recipe for cooking oatmeal. :o|
“Right now 30,000 people are lined up to get into the Superdome. Interstate 10 is a parking lot. Tens of thousands of people along the path of this storm have no way to leave."
Oh dear. Every time I check my home page for anything, the headline and photo have changed, so I know it is going to get ugly before it gets better.
I can deal with earthquakes, but tornadoes and hurricanes I want no part of. My sister in FL won't leave there, and I won't GO there. And the other one, of course, moved to Alaska, so I guess she would rather have earthquakes too.
I'm back, chores completed.
Nothing to do now but FReep, and I bet no one will be around!
You're right. No one is here. Not even you. ;o]
Wellnow...that was a pithy comment, sion...:o|
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