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Potential Republican Crack-Up

Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB

For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.

The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.

I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.

There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.

Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.

So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.

However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.

I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."

At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.

I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.

With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.

This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.

With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."

Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.

With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.

These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.

I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.

I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....

But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.

As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.

Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.

If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.


TOPICS: Politics
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To: Dead Corpse

squish....

3,541 posted on 08/17/2005 2:17:17 PM PDT by Hi Heels (Guns kill and cause crime? Dang, mine must be malfunctioning....)
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To: Dead Corpse

Even without any alterations the car runs like a raped ape. You push that pedal, you'd better hang on....


3,542 posted on 08/17/2005 2:20:16 PM PDT by Hi Heels (Guns kill and cause crime? Dang, mine must be malfunctioning....)
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To: Monkey Face

3 digit temps are worse than humidity.


3,543 posted on 08/17/2005 2:22:56 PM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (Warning.... Contents under pressure....)
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To: Conspiracy Guy

But both together are worst of all.


3,544 posted on 08/17/2005 2:23:57 PM PDT by Tax-chick (Officially around the bend, at least for now.)
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To: Tax-chick

Gas oven. Heck. That would have been easy.


3,545 posted on 08/17/2005 2:25:25 PM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (Warning.... Contents under pressure....)
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To: Tax-chick

Indeed.


3,546 posted on 08/17/2005 2:26:02 PM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (Warning.... Contents under pressure....)
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To: Conspiracy Guy

It seemed easy to the appliance service gentleman, but if Der Prinz had tried it, we'd probably all have been dead on the floor. If he has a disaster replacing a faucet, it's only water, but some things are worth hiring someone who knows what he's doing ... since you don't live nearby!


3,547 posted on 08/17/2005 2:29:23 PM PDT by Tax-chick (Officially around the bend, at least for now.)
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To: Tax-chick; Conspiracy Guy

I was in Florida one time. It was raining and 100 degrees out. Like takin' a shower.


3,548 posted on 08/17/2005 2:40:06 PM PDT by Hi Heels (Guns kill and cause crime? Dang, mine must be malfunctioning....)
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To: Hi Heels
I could do the $20 bet with mine. It launched hard enough that you could tape a $20 to the dash and tell the person to reach for it when I mash the gas. If you can grab it, you can have it. No one ever did.

I had someone bet me new rims and tires that I couldn't boil the rear skins off it. I ended up with new rims and tires. And that was before installing the trans brake and line locks.

I loved that car. It's my "one that got away" and I will replace it some day with another one. Possible a 1969 this time.

3,549 posted on 08/17/2005 2:53:28 PM PDT by Dead Corpse (Never underestimate the will of the downtrodden to lie flatter.)
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To: Hi Heels; Tax-chick; Conspiracy Guy; Dead Corpse
" It was raining and 100 degrees out. Like takin' a shower."

Days like that make me want to dress in suds.

Internally and externally.

3,550 posted on 08/17/2005 3:02:27 PM PDT by NicknamedBob (Mighty and enduring? They are but toys of the moment to be overturned by the flicking of a finger.)
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To: NicknamedBob

LOL! I heard stories from my grandmother and her brothers and sisters about taking showers when it was raining.


3,551 posted on 08/17/2005 3:07:37 PM PDT by Tax-chick (Officially around the bend, at least for now.)
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To: Conspiracy Guy

The three digit temps are usually accompanied by 1 digit humidity. Which is why I like it so well.

If the humidity is about 15% and the temp is above 90, then I stay indoors.


3,552 posted on 08/17/2005 3:08:45 PM PDT by Monkey Face (Can I have your beets?)
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To: Tax-chick
My brother-in-law tried it.

The rain coming off the roof when the shower started was steamy warm, and he ran and got some soap.

After a very few minutes, though, the heat on the roof had dissipated, and the rainwater runoff turned co-oo-old!
3,553 posted on 08/17/2005 3:13:14 PM PDT by NicknamedBob (Mighty and enduring? They are but toys of the moment to be overturned by the flicking of a finger.)
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To: NicknamedBob

Funny!


3,554 posted on 08/17/2005 3:36:39 PM PDT by Tax-chick (Officially around the bend, at least for now.)
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To: Tax-chick

I learned a lot from him ...


... of things I ought not do!


3,555 posted on 08/17/2005 3:44:17 PM PDT by NicknamedBob (Mighty and enduring? They are but toys of the moment to be overturned by the flicking of a finger.)
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To: NicknamedBob

I think that's the purpose of brothers-in-law in the greater scheme of things.


3,556 posted on 08/17/2005 4:07:17 PM PDT by Tax-chick (Officially around the bend, at least for now.)
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To: Tax-chick

Hmm. That would explain a lot!


3,557 posted on 08/17/2005 4:26:59 PM PDT by NicknamedBob (Mighty and enduring? They are but toys of the moment to be overturned by the flicking of a finger.)
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To: Monkey Face
Is it snowing up there, yet?

Yes, and a good thing it is, since my two story igloo, with attached garage (for the dog team) has been melting quite a bit in the summer heat. /sarc..... roflol.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

I've got the net till 8pm, then it goes to my son until 10, and I'm usually asleep by then. ;-) It's getting a bit quieter at work, now it's just steady, instead of busy.

Whats new at your end?

3,558 posted on 08/17/2005 4:45:42 PM PDT by fanfan (" The liberal party is not corrupt " Prime Minister Paul Martin)
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To: NicknamedBob

I brought in one of our hummingbird feeders to refill it, and now the little monsters are furious! There's one hovering outside the window chirping at me, even though there are two other feeders out there!


3,559 posted on 08/17/2005 4:46:24 PM PDT by Tax-chick (Officially around the bend, at least for now.)
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To: fanfan

Are you serious? It's snowing?


3,560 posted on 08/17/2005 4:47:41 PM PDT by Tax-chick (Officially around the bend, at least for now.)
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