Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB
For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.
The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.
I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.
There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.
Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.
So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.
However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.
I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."
At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.
I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.
With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.
This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.
With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."
Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.
With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.
These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.
I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.
I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....
But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.
As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.
Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.
If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.
Good night, sleep tight, and pleasant dreams.
I don't think there is so much that you "believe in" as you like to give yourself credit for.
Nero used pitch, which is a form of tar. And that couldn't have smelled all that great either. :-P
They certainly reveal... information... to women.
Speaking as a women, they even look uncomfortable
to me... almost like wearing a stressed rubber-band.
Yeah... I was speaking in modern terms (talking
about lighting the castle so I wouldn't get lost).
Guess I should be more careful about jumping from
one thing to another (but it makes sense in my mind).
"Naaaaaaaaaaaw...older men can be droolable; enjoy! :-)"
Amazingly, most of the actors I like...
are very old (read: long dead).
Cary Grant is a favorite of mine...
I did like the lighted mouse idea. It tickled my fancy. b
Yeah, I was amused too... kind of wish I'd thought of it.
However, I already have a lighted mouse with "dell" branded on it's
back. It doesn't do much except run around the computer desk... ;-)
Jude Law, when made up and styled is passable yummy, but he is a Brit. Today's America actors not can't act, they look awful.
Cary Grant was not only a beautiful specimen, but a very talented actor. And again...another Brit!
I don't see why we girls can't appreciate men from all eras. So what if lots of them are long dead?
ROTFLOL...you're almost as funny/witty as your brother. Good girl! :-)
I also like Peter Lorre, not particularly attractive, but
he seemed to have an adorable personality (while acting).
Val Kilmer isn't bad, but actors of today don't have the
same... class or anything as those of yesteryear.
I'm more prone to serious conversation than
either of my brothers. As I explain it, I'm the
youngest & the closest to normal. My brother
would have everyone believe I'm just like him...
Or worse somehow.
At least I don't typo... ;-)
But you should really see, if you haven't, Peter Lorre in M, as a haunted and hunted child molester. It's quality acting one almost never sees in films anymore.
Kilmer isn't bad.
Richard Gere, though a flake as a person, isn't a bad actor and somewhat yummy.
But I'm enjoying getting to know you and you are really quite witty on your own. :-)
Have you ever seen Peter Lorre with Vincent Price in
"The Raven" or with Cary Grant in "Arsenic & Old Lace"?
(I prefer old comedys, they're not vulgar like today's)
I don't really care for Richard Gere... I really can't
stand most actors today & rarely watch movies from
this day & age. I could probably name more actors I
dislike than ones I like seeing. Pity what passes for
talent these days. Some need a shot of charisma....
others just need to be shot. ;-)
Yeah, he's a good guy... he & I are very close, laugh
together a lot. It's easier to joke with him 'cause he
already knows my sense of humor & I don't have to
worry about him looking at me like o_0 or anything.
I get that a lot from other people.
I find his typos amusing... amazingly, he's the only person I
know that can manage the same effect when speaking. ;-])
You should ask him about "SOOVE!!" sometime.
I try my best, sometimes I have a thought & sometimes I have mud.
I've probably seen ARSINIC AND OLD LACE 50 times. It never grows old. BUUUUUUUUUULLLLLLLLLLLLLLLY! LOL
Did you ever see Gere in LOOKING FOR MR. GOODBAR? I think that you'd like him in that.
I rarely see any modern movies; the scripts are dreadful, the actors and actresses can't act, and special effects, when that's all there is, are boring.
Watch really old movies on TCM ( tape them if you must ) and you'll be amazed at how good movies once were.
Your brother talks like he types??????????????? LOL
Alas, I don't have "The Raven". Can't find it either.
One of my fave scenes is every time Teddy yells
"Chaaarrrrge!" before racing up the stairs &
slamming the door or this "No, no. I'm not a
Brewster. I'm the son of a sea-cook! Ha! Ha!
Chaaaaarrrge!" & the cab driver says
"I'm not a cab driver. I'm a coffeepot!"
Nope, never seen it.
My mom tries to get me to watch some of the movies
on TCM, I haven't been impressed with the ones I
have seen (unfortunately). I saw "Ziegfeld Follies"
last night, neither my mom or I liked it. My mom
said the real Ziegfeld Follies were much better.
Yes, sometimes he does. we have a good time
writing stories around his words. We also screw
up songs 'cause we've heard lyrics wrong & come
up with a completely new song based on the music.
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