Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB
For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.
The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.
I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.
There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.
Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.
So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.
However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.
I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."
At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.
I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.
With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.
This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.
With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."
Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.
With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.
These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.
I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.
I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....
But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.
As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.
Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.
If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.
Has old KMB decided to drop by and grace us with his presence????
My pomeranian loves bananas. Can't leave them out unless I want banana all over the carpet.
Hobbes is strange. She won't even eat canned food unless it is the new Iams stuff in the packets, and then she will only eat about a teaspoon of it a day.
Yes, it is quite good that the zombies went for KMB's corpse.
I did't want to have to mop up zombie drool again.
Excellent!
Let's see... wine, cheese, bread... who's got the apples?
Gotta go, all. Talk to you later.
Some people can't take a hint :^)
Welcome! We've taken over KMB's thread ~~ stole it fair and square!
Bye!
Tis true...squatters rights you know.
I have no idea, but I think it must have been to keep their ears warm on the way down..."Into the air Junior Birdmen..."
Poms are such cute little dogs.
LOL!
I never buy Twinkies!
I had a cat who would only eat the cheap, store brand of dry cat-food.
REally weird.
Yepper...just more real estate for the castle...;o]
OSHA wrote:
Some people can't take a hint :^)
It was the cigars, right?
;-)
We're glad you had a chance to have some innocent fun. Now that you're more or less caught up, here's the current situation:
With Discovery back on Earth again, and likely to stay here, our planned Lunar Mission is looking more important than ever. NASA has requested that we add another three tons to their fifteen ton package to be delivered to the moon, so I have scaled up the number of shuttle thrusters involved, and also incorporated some "bare" thrusters into the main pod.I don't know what will be in the NASA package, but we will set up a considerable distance away from them. They can look for water ice on the surface, but we're digging in. Eventually, if we can find enough of the right kind of materials, we can set up a launch facility for a lunar catapult, or mass-driver, which will be able to send packages to pre-determined locations near our home planet. This should prove useful in re-supplying asteroid mining operations, for example. Who knows, we might get the concession for sending stuff to the International Space Station. (And yes, we will charge them an "astronomical" fee!)
We'll probably need to cut back on our own package as well. I've decided that we can perhaps make do with half the number of "spider" robots for surface exploration, (it seems unlikely they'll encounter any really deep crevasses, so any needed "rescue" missions should be able to proceed with only four or five rescuers.) However, I still intend to have the "Moonworm" fully functional.
Moonworm will dig down into the Lunar regolith, sampling the material as it goes. Material handling equipment will allow us to use certain ores for basic construction purposes, some of which are yet to be determined. It's much more important to get our robotic pedal extremities on the ground up there.
From this secure underground position, we will be able to support the excursions of the spiders out across the surface, setting up communication antennas, and assembling the racks for solar cells we hope to construct from lunar materials. Admittedly, it will be difficult to operate these robots as tele-operators from Earth, and as much as possible has been automated, but that is the current state of our technology.
Even so, it will be fun to sit here and operate the controls to manipulate a robot on another world. A great way to while away the hours, eh?
These changes mean we will have to reconfigure everything once again, but fortunately, we won't have the built-in system delays that NASA has. We'll just do it. I'll let you know when we are getting close to the launch date for the Lunar Mission.
He is still deceased.
Hobbes is the strangest cat I've ever had. She doesn't even know she can jump. Go figger.
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