Potential Republican Crack-Up

[KMB]

For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.

The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.

I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.

There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.

Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.

So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.

However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.

I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."

At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.

I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.

With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.

This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.

With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."

Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.

With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.

These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.

I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.

I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....

But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.

As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.

Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.

If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.

[Monkey Face]

Hi, You!

Good to see you!

I, for one, have missed you. ;o]

[international american]

Still over 100 in Ariz?

[NicknamedBob]

"...goose...lanterns..."

Man, your imagination is more weird than mine!

Now remember, I never propose or condone anything cruel.

You'd have to be honest with those liberals about what they were getting into, or vice versa.

[Monkey Face]

Nah...the "monsoons" are here, so that means lower temps and "scattered showers", and it seems to bring out the doo-doo heads...the ones that try to cross the roads and washes with running water in them. If they have to call 911 to get them out, they not only are ticketed, but they have to pay for the rescue units. It's called the "Stupid Driver" law. ;o]

I will be VERY happy when the monsoons are gone...

[sionnsar]

Likewise. It's been a busy time, but things are starting to settle down a bit now. Not that that'll last...

I've located a graphic for the new "Spawn of the Undead Thread" ping banner, but am trying to figure out how best to use it. (Plus I am using some new image editing software and am learning my way around it, so it take some time...)

What are you up to these days?

[NicknamedBob]

Just a suggestion ... try to make sure that " -- the Umpteenth Chronicles" is a pluggable entry. It will make the job of updating so much easier.

[Monkey Face]

I'm glad to know you are "still with us"...as busy as you have been, I was afraid you had dropped off the RADAR.

I'm up to what I've been since I was 14...5'9"! *snort*

Waiting to hear from my grandson about what he wants to do in the army. He enlisted Monday on the Delayed Entry Program, but I have no clue about anything except that we will ship put within a week of graduation next June. I will be there for both events.

His recruiter has a big job, keeping him in tow for the next 10 months...

:o]

[sionnsar]

Oh, most definitely! It takes time to do these graphics.

[sionnsar]

Actually, I had dropped off the radar. Had to dig far back in posting history to find the link. That's the problem with running ping lists.

[Monkey Face]

Oh.
Thanks.
NOW you tell me.
After I've semi-quasi-sorta-kinda agreed to be your surrogate...*sigh*
"In for a penny, in for a pound." Someone famous said that, I'm sure...
:o]

[NicknamedBob]

I sometimes go spelunking there, but I keep my ping list in the word processor.

Do you have the "view partial source" utility? I couldn't function without it.

[sionnsar]

NOW you tell me.

Huh?

[sionnsar]

Oh. I see. Nothing's changed there; I'm just slower getting there than I expected...

[Monkey Face]

Oh. Golly. A week ago (or so) you asked for "volunteers" to take over the ping list and the graphics, due to your schedule...I FReepmailed you that if nominated, I would do so. I think there were three or four votes, but no one else was "offered" so I have been sitting quietly, waiting until the crown and scepter (and pipes) have been passed down...

(Did we cross wires? Dang. I hate when that happens...)

:o|

[international american]

I remember getting caught in a rainstorm there......couldn't even drive!

[Monkey Face]

The only thing I can tell you is that if you can't see out your windshield, pull over to what you think is the curb and STOP! It's a temporary condition, usually not lasting more than 10 minutes.

We get 12" of rain a year, here, and it usually comes within three or four days. ;o]

[sionnsar]

I sometimes go spelunking there, but I keep my ping list in the word processor.

I started out that way, but it kept me either captive to one machine or struggling to keep it synced with the various machines I might be using. It just didn't work out, so I created a (private) web page that has it.

This works out really well when:
- one accesses from multiple machines
- one has a backup ping list pinger (as I do for the Traditional Anglican Ping List)
- one is using a tabbed browser.

In the case of having a backup pinger, it's also great in case something happens to the main pinger. When the original Traditional Anglican Ping List maintainer (ahadams2) passed away last September, the list was dead until somebody stood up the take it over, and his widow forwarded the list. But for the latter that list would have had to be built from scratch. This is protection of sorts.

With a tabbed browser, I have set a bookmark for the pinglist page, and open it in a new tab when pingtime rolls around. It's very quick & easy to move between tabs.

The downside is that the initial creation of the pinglist page takes more work: one has to substitute "&lt;" for "<" and such, but once done it's really quick to use. Here's what part of I see when I open this list's ping page in a browser:

---

Bride of Undead Thread ID:
<div align="center"> <table style="text-align: center;" border="0" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="1"> <tbody> <tr> <td colspan="1" rowspan="2" style="vertical-align: top;"> <a href="http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/backroom/1163131/posts"> <img src="http://pws.prserv.net/usinet.krswan/jj_fate2.gif"></a> <br> </td> <td style="vertical-align: top;"> <a href="http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/backroom/1306051/posts?q=1&&page=601#609"> <img src="http://pws.prserv.net/usinet.krswan/bride2.gif"></a> <br> </td> <td colspan="1" rowspan="2" style="vertical-align: top;"> <a href="http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/backroom/1306051/posts?q=1&&page=601#611"> <img src="http://pws.prserv.net/usinet.krswan/zot2.gif"></a> <br> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="vertical-align: top;"><center> <font color="navy"><b>FReepmail</b></font> me if you want on or off the ping list.<br> This is a low volume ping list (every few days).<br><br> <a href="http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/backroom/1163131/posts?q=1&&page=41051#41083"> What is this thread all about</a>?<br><br> Some <a href="http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/backroom/1306051/posts?q=1&&page=601#610"> guidelines</a> for posting on this thread.<br> Some <a href= "http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/backroom/1306051/posts?q=1&&page=20144#20144"> highlights</a> of this thread.<br> </center> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div>

Undead Thread II Ping List:
Monkey Face; ...; sionnsar

---

Copy and paste that, and you have the ping banner.

Do you have the "view partial source" utility? I couldn't function without it.

I could, but it would be painfully slow.

[sionnsar]

'Face, I got buried. Tons of FReepmail, due to the restart of the Washington State ping list, an unexpected burst of activity in the Anglican blogworld, and too many new tools coming online. I remember your offer and that's about all; I had hoped to have everything up & running days ago, but I am not there yet...

I'm sorry.

[NicknamedBob]

Here's another helpful utility, courtesy of John Robinson!

Use the spell check!

It will automatically convert the greater than or less than symbols into the html code as you described. You might need to add, then delete, spaces to control the process.

Just put the sample text into a posting window, with at least one spelling error, and request "spell" -- after double-checking for actual misspelled words, choose "apply corrections", and the former html will be changed into its ampersanded equivalents!

You don't have to post it, just copy and paste into your other application, but it's a great utility. I use it to format my poems for posting, when I want to add features to it, such as centering or bolding.

[Monkey Face]

No apologies necessary. I copied the stuff you gave just now, so all you have to do is let me know when you want to change it, and/or when you want me to start using it.

I. Am. Your. Willing. Slave.

(she says, robotically)