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Republican Dilemma in 2008
http://mostlydeadarmadillos.blogspot.com/ ^ | Sunday November 28, 2004 | Stephen Johnson

Posted on 11/28/2004 7:09:39 AM PST by CHAROM

Now that I have added a few inches to my waistline thanks to turkey and homemade cheesecake, I have had some time to ponder 2008. I have blogged about it before, because I think the election will pose a serious challenge for Republicans.

I believe the only way a Democrat can win the Presidency in 2008 or beyond is if the Republicans do something really foolish or arrogant in the next 4 years, or if they choose to run a candidate with a sordid past or some other blemish that can be exploited. With Ken Mehlman at RNC, the chances of that scenario playing out are minimized. So far, the people mentioned as possible candidates are Bill Frist, George Allen, John McCain, Rudy Guiliani, Jeb Bush, George Pataki, Mitt Romney, and Bill Owens. Of this entire list, only Jeb Bush and Bill Owens are capable of earning my support. Pro-abortion moderates can't win the nomination, regardless how much they are loved and adored by the liberal national press. And why the Republicans would consider running anyone from the US Senate is beyond me. The last sitting Senator to win the Presidency was John Kennedy. Senators make horrible candidates, just ask John Kerry and Bob Dole. No, the candidate HAS to be a Governor from a RED state. Its that simple. The voters like and prefer people with executive branch leadership experience to be President.

This is what the Democrats always fail to remember, and will forget it again in 2008. I will make a prediction now. Hillary Clinton WILL be the Democratic nominee in 2008. She already has the organization, the fundraising, and has begun campaigning. And if Harold Ickes becomes the chair at the DNC, the deal will be sealed. I am hoping and praying for this to happen. She will be an awful candidate and will be defeated easily.


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1 posted on 11/28/2004 7:09:39 AM PST by CHAROM
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To: CHAROM

Jeb has said he won't run.


2 posted on 11/28/2004 7:11:39 AM PST by Reader of news
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To: CHAROM

If the republicans don't get spending under control the point is mute. Conservatives will stay home and the dems will move in.


3 posted on 11/28/2004 7:13:59 AM PST by quantim (Victory is not relative, it is absolute.)
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To: quantim

moot


4 posted on 11/28/2004 7:23:57 AM PST by MEG33 ( Congratulations President Bush!..Thank you God. Four More Years!)
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To: CHAROM
Of this entire list, only Jeb Bush and Bill Owens are capable of earning my support.

Indeed, and I'm hoping that Owens throws his hat in the ring for '08.


5 posted on 11/28/2004 7:32:32 AM PST by rdb3 (LoRdZ of the Gen-X Republican Rebellion -- rdb3 "HiP-hOp FReeper")
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To: CHAROM

If Hillary runs, then the Republicans don't need to run a governor froma red state because mayors from blue states can beat her.


6 posted on 11/28/2004 7:34:56 AM PST by Senator Goldwater
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To: quantim
"Conservatives will stay home and the dems will move in."

That's what was said during this past Presidential election cycle -- and Republicans prevailed, gaining seats in both the House and Senate and retaining the White House.

Problem is that Puff Daddy and Russell Simmons haven't been effective at getting their young (allegedly) liberal base to vote Democrat on election day. According to USA Today, less than 1 in 10 people between the ages of 18 and 25 voted this past November 2.

And those most likely to vote in that same age group vote Republican. The country is much more conservative today than when my parents were my age.

Young conservatives should care very much about government spending, but most don't. In fact, that issue probably doesn't even make their top 5 list of why they vote Republican.

7 posted on 11/28/2004 7:40:22 AM PST by jdm (Stockhausen, Kagel, Xenakis -- world capitals or avant-garde composers?)
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To: quantim

Partly this depends on how many SCOTUS justices are replaced between now and the election. If abortion is soundly repealed--or if there is no chance of it--that will impact pro-Life turnout. If we see real success in Iraq, the antiwar anarchists won't get the attention they have had lately. If the economy is stable, GOP can expect more moderate votes. If Hillary is REALLY well exposed as a fraud, hypocrite and worse as she tries to pose as a Bible thumper the next few months (and I pray she actually READS it!) then she's less a threat. And the PJHadeen will be stronger than ever in '08, as will our dedication to thwart vote fraud, for many years the Plan A of the crooks in charge of the DNC.


8 posted on 11/28/2004 7:41:40 AM PST by The Spirit Of Allegiance
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To: MEG33

LOL. Need more coffee.


9 posted on 11/28/2004 8:01:28 AM PST by quantim (Victory is not relative, it is absolute.)
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To: jdm
I understand your point but I fear the longer-term implications are hazardous to republicans when the line between the two parties is immeasurably blurred by excessive government spending.  Controlled spending (and a resulting lesser tax burden) is one the fundamental tenets of conservatism, and if this violation continues this will weaken the republican party and give the dems an opening at all levels.

Kinda' like Clinton jumping on welfare reform - we can't let them beat us at our own game.

10 posted on 11/28/2004 8:17:02 AM PST by quantim (Victory is not relative, it is absolute.)
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To: CHAROM

I don't have the slightest idea who the Republicans might pick. I only know that I won't vote for the democrat. That is, unless the Republicans put Senator John McCain on the ticket. In that case, I won't only vote for the Democrat, I'll campaign like hell for the Democrat (against the Republican choice).


11 posted on 11/28/2004 8:23:34 AM PST by jackbob
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To: CHAROM

Jeb has no shot.


12 posted on 11/28/2004 8:47:33 AM PST by jperspective
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To: CHAROM
The Republican nominee will have the following qualities:

1. A first rate campaign manager with a successful track record in Gubernatorial and Senatorial races as well as experience in a presidential campaign.

2. A finance chairman who can recruit enough initial volunteer fundraisers to raise the millions of dollars (at $2,000 apiece) needed just to assemble the campaign team and establish the foundation to carry him through November.

3. A pollster with a successful track record in doing internal polling for Gubernatorial and Senate candidates with some national polling experience.

3. A public relations agency with experience in political campaigns along with direct mail, video production, and earned media.

4. A small cadre of dedicated advisers on economics, foreign policy, national security, and domestic policy with the type of national stature to instill confidence in potential supporters.

5. A list of prominent, highly respected people from across the nation and across the political/economic spectrum formally endorsing his candidacy.

6. A wife whom the American people would be proud to call First Lady.

.

Unfortunately there will be a gaggle of vanity candidates running just to increase their name recognition and build their mailing list. They could give all Republicans a bad reputation and cost us the general election.

13 posted on 11/28/2004 9:12:51 AM PST by bayourod (Don't Mess With West Texas Oil Field Trash)
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To: jackbob

the media loves Mccain because he is actually liberal desguising himself as conservative.

Jeb Bush does have a chance. He has probably the best chance out of all the candidates named so far. He is the most conservative of the bunch named above.

Jeb is saying he wont run, but what do we expect him to say 3 years in advance? Nobody in their right mind would acknowledge running 3 years in advance.


14 posted on 11/28/2004 12:50:58 PM PST by CaliRepublican97 (Conservative, gun toting, anti-abortion, anti-gay and proud of it)
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To: CaliRepublican97
Nobody in their right mind would acknowledge running 3 years in advance.

One name not mentioned in the article is Chuck Hagel -- and he has, in fact, acknowledged that he is running. (I wouldn't vote for Hagel for anything under any circumstances.)

15 posted on 11/28/2004 1:01:41 PM PST by Wolfstar (Counting down the days to when the new White House puppy arrives.)
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To: CaliRepublican97
Other than the McCain-Feingold bill, I'd say McCain is far more conservative than the President. If I were from Arizona I'd be pretty upset with him over election reform. Otherwise, Id say he is one of the best Senators in the Senate. Which is where I hope he stays.

On the other hand, I will actively oppose any attempt to place in in line to be President, and any candidate who states an intention to do so. His past achievements are in my opinion quite honorable. But must never be viewed as presidential.

16 posted on 11/28/2004 1:25:25 PM PST by jackbob
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To: jackbob

from what I have read of him, he isnt very pro-life which in my book, makes him liberal.
There is a reason you dont hear the media talk bad about him, atleast I have never heard anything negative about him on CNN or CBS.
Have you ever heard positive things about a Truly Conservative guy from the mainstream media?
Joe


17 posted on 11/28/2004 1:38:59 PM PST by CaliRepublican97 (Conservative, gun toting, anti-abortion, anti-gay and proud of it)
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To: rdb3

Why don't you make a nice rap tune about how you feel?


18 posted on 11/28/2004 1:41:00 PM PST by Lurking2Long
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To: CHAROM

4 years is a long time. I would've never guessed in 2000 that Kerry would campaign for President, let alone win the nomination. I'd never even heard of Howard Dean. Wesley Clark, I would've never guessed. Don't worry until 2007, someone with charisma and conservative credentials will pop up.


19 posted on 11/28/2004 2:35:25 PM PST by Nataku X (Lord, please guide President Bush, and please protect our soldiers in Fallujah.)
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To: Lurking2Long

Bigot


20 posted on 11/28/2004 2:36:36 PM PST by Nataku X (Lord, please guide President Bush, and please protect our soldiers in Fallujah.)
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