[Alas Babylon!]

Suppose Osama is dead. We know it, but for the reasons you've listed, choose not to tell. What of Al Qaeda? Surely, someone in that organization knows he's dead, or haven't seen him at the staff meetings for three years.....

What's Al Qaeda's reason to hide Bin Laden's death or disappearance?

[dufekin]

Maybe they don't know about it. Perhaps we've got a very good look-alike, for example from Pakistani intelligence, planted in the organization. Okay, that's a bit far-fetched. But what if...they're unsure of his whereabouts because they haven't heard or seen his body or his capture? They don't want to start a fallacious rumor of his demise. Quashing such a rumor might require him to reveal himself to the Arab world, which in turn would give the United States valuable intelligence.

But maybe al-Qaida doesn't want to admit defeat. Perhaps they don't want to announce their new leadership. Maybe there's a crisis over who should succeed bin Laden. Maybe he's officially hiding from all but the top execs so that no one will give away his location. Who knows? There are plenty of reasons on both sides to hide bin Laden's demise.