Where the candidates head tomorrow and what it means

Jay Cost's Horserace Blog ^ | 10-10-04 | Jay Cost

[jaycost]

Part of my blog is covering where, specifically, the candidates are heading...and what we can infer from this about the state of the election.

Dubya will be in Denver, CO tomorrow.

Jay's Interpretation: This looks like a play for the voters in Colorado's suburbs in Adams, Arapache and Jefferson counties. These are a part of CO 7. The district went for Gore in 2000 by a scant 1,900 votes. The CD presently has a new Republican congressman (Bob Beauprez...remember he won in a run-off in 2002), so there are votes to be had for the President. This is a sign of the president's strength in Colorado. He is not playing to the eastern or western districts of the state, which he won handily in 2000. Nor is he playing to Colorado Springs (CD #5), which he also won handily. Rather, he is playing to his suburbia/exurbia strategy.

He will also be in Hobbs, NM.

Jay's Interpretation: Dubya seems to be playing for his base. This is in the southeastern corner of the state. A solidly Republican portion of the state, Hobbs is not around very much else in NM. Hobbs is in Lea County, which the president won by 43% in 2000 (He won the neighboring counties, Eddy, Chaves and Roosevelt by 18%, 28%, and 34% respectively). Undoubtedly, Dubya will be appearing with Steve Pearce, a new GOP congressman (replaced Joe Skeen in 2002). Pearce's hometown is Hobbs, NM.

Kerry is prepping for debate in Santa Fe, NM.

Jay's Interpretation: This seems to be yet another play to Kerry's base. Santa Fe is the centerpiece of the 3rd CD of NM, which Gore carried by 9% in 2000. Gore won Santa Fe County by 37%. The real swing section of the state is the 1st CD, which is centered around Albuquerque, which is in Bernalillo County. Gore narrowly beat Dubya there in 2000, 49% to 47%.

In general, we can say that both sides are looking to their base on Monday. NM has 3 CD's. The first is the swing CD. The second is solidly Republican. The third is solidly Democrat. That both Bush and Kerry are playing to their bases tomorrow is an interesting thing which is difficult for me to decipher. Perhaps the race is a dead-heat, but the bases of both candidates are soft. Perhaps since the race was decided by so few votes in 2000, both candidates are especially focused on amplifying base support. I am not sure. We shall have to wait and see...the candidates will return to NM later this month. Expect them to come to Bernalillo County, where both candidates have an opportunity.

Note 1: Kerry spent today at a black church in southern Florida. To do this so late in the general election season seems to indicate that the Democrats are worried about black turnout, which is consistent with the findings of the last Pew Poll (which should Kerry significantly down on black support compared to Gore in 2000). Remember that the major reason Florida was so close in 2000 was because Gore achieved unprecedented voter turnout in Florida. If this lags, I am guessing we'll see a clean win for the president in the Sunshine State.

Note 2: To my knowledge Kerry has no scheduled public events tomorrow. I might be wrong about this. But if I am not, then this is another instance of Kerry/Edwards being a second-rate campaign. Of course, undoubtedly the fact that both candidates are in NM on the same day will yield extensive TV coverage in Albuquerque. So they are not completely disconnected from the swing voters.