My 2 Cents:
This debate was similar to the Bush/Gore debates. Intially the pudits claimed Gore the winner. They were wrong. Bush clearly won on the facts and the steadfastness of his position. Anyone who read the main editorial in the WSJ today will note that Kerry's presentation was seriously fact flawed. Kerry made every mistake they warned against. Bush clearly won.
Indeed. Kerry seemed smooth, but we always criticize our own so much. Let us not forget that his hand gestures were positively creepy. Bush's performance looks weak now, but as the dust settles and the statistics (# ref to Vietnam, gratuitous references to battleground states, etc.) and focus group numbers come in, Bush may lose a point or two, but will significantly solidify his support. Which is all he needs to do.