Posted on 04/08/2020 10:30:03 AM PDT by MinorityRepublican
“if we relax and this all starts up all over again we’re screwed.”
You’re right in a way. I’m not a doctor, but I’m thinking that the social distancing makes things worse. Everyone will emerge from their hidey holes around the same time, basically “virus virgins”, and will be totally vulnerable to the first infected person that says hello. People should have been out and about, being careful of course, and building up immunities.
“I am pretty healthy, but I am not sure I will survive it and neither are you.”
I’m relatively healthy, too, but in the “at risk” group — over 70, have had pneumonia/bronchitis in the past. I am not sure I will survive it, either, but I don’t care if the alternative means living like Ted Kaczynski or Howard Hughes the rest of my life. Quivering in fear for 20 more years is not living, IMHO.
Well, he can hide out in your home, Americans need to start living their lives again
Thanks for posting that interview. Fascinating. I am no scientist, but it seems the artificial suppression of the natural development of herd immunity in the populace is problematic.
You are very welcome. Very eye opening, and the guy is no slouch.
The only way to get herd immunity is to expose 80% or more of the population. Herd immunity requires a penetration rate of infection or vaccine of at least 80% this is true of all other respiratory airborne viruses as well. This bug kills 1% at least in Italy with the hospitals overwhelmed it’s approaching 12% so it get herd immunity we need to let it burn through nearly everyone and at least 1% will die we have 330 million people 80% need to be exposed for herd immunity so if did that then 2.6 million is 1% of 80% that will die assuming the hospitals are not overwhelmed. So what the herd immunity people are advocating is sacrifice 2 million so we can open the economy up. If saving the stock market, 401k , and companies is worth 2 million lives then we should take public vote on it see what the people what to do because everyone of us will have to risk our lives and get sick with this bug the vulnerable population is more than 20% in America so that means even younger people with hypertension, diabetes and asthma will have to get sick too all to grant the whole herd immunity. The medical facts are clear herd immunity and vaccines need a 80% penetration rate that’s not changeable how we get there is. We can all get exposed and take our risks or we can wait for a vaccine and all get forced vaccinated those are the only two choices. HQZ doesn’t prevent illness nor inoculation there’s zero peer reviewed research that shows quinine is a preventative and even if it shows promise it won’t be 100% so we all will still have to take the risk of infection no way around that in a back to work plan. Only a vaccine is the end of this with low risk. Let’s take a vote I’m down lets see how many American citizens will vote to risk their own lives for the common good, the economy, wall street and their favorite restaurants.
I would never tie American prosperity to the whims of the Teachers Unions.
My take is California particularly los Angeles is having much better results of social distancing than NYC. Probably due to way lower population density and also the NYC metro being a prime vector. NYC is showing a 1+% CFR and they are doing massive testing numbers so the number of asymptomatic cases are not as high as say Dallas where they have only tested 1600 vs over a 100k. I’m not opposed to the individual states putting up a vote on restrictions its the democratic way to do it. People who want to isolate can and a large number still will. The herd immunity math needs the vast majority to catch the bug so the plan would be forgo the 6 foot and go full on get close and get sick as many as quickly as possible. Then it’s up to each person’s immune system to live or die.HQZ might help but there’s no where near enough for 300 million daily doses if everyone got sick all at once so it would be the old fashioned live or die on your own. Personally I think I’ll wait for a vaccine before I venture to the bar and put back some pints with a few hundred people. I already go to the store but in a full face double seal mask and P100 filters that will stop the bug for hours on end. I’m also trained by the Army in chemical & Bio warfare I was in the unit at Anniston Army Depot nicknamed the chemheads so I can decontamination property once I get to my decon station at home. Gloves, suit,booties, hood, double seal mask I have the training to work indefinitely in a challenged environment as long as my supply if PPE holds up. All materials brought from the hotzone are decon with 1500ppm chlorine then aged in isolation for a week in a dedicated freezer before a second 1500ppm and entry into the greenzone. Most people lack these skills so they will be exposed eventually anyways. The whole point of social distancing is to buy time for a vaccine to be created , tested and approved.
bkmk
Thanks for your thoughts. You have quite a background!
Clueless.....
Flattening the curve is about not crashing the healthcare system with critical cases.
A concept that seems to have eluded a lot of folks.
It was mentioned early on in the lock downs, but has since been lost in the general broohaha since then. Hardly anyone ever mentions if any more.
It's an accusation designed to put the person being alert and watchful on the defensive and make them look like the bad guy.
I agree with him. If this blows up again, which does seem likely at some point (there IS precedent for that) then, yes, we are screwed. This will be a birthday party compared to what's going to come.
And for that, I DO intend on being prepared. And if I don't use my prep supplies for that, I will use them eventually.
But those who choose to ignore the warnings and not get ready for the worst case scenario will just be reaping what they sowed.
Oh, and don't come begging for me, or demanding of me, to share my supplies.
go ahead and wallow in fear; just don’t inflict the rest of us that are willing to boldly live our lives (like a good American should)
Except they won't be on their own.
They will be flooding the hospitals and crashing the healthcare system.
How is THAT going to work out for us?
Roll eyes........
I feel ya.
I like working from home. Saving $200 a month in gas and getting extra sleep. I figure April 30 is the end and off to the office everyday again.
I am almost completely convinced this virus hit California late last year early this year. People went about there daily lives and nothing happened. No run on hospitals, no shutting down everything, nothing more than “hey this seasons bug seems like a pretty good one.”
CA is benefiting from herd immunity, I just hope we hit critical mass before the shelter in place slowed immunity to a crawl.
Quarantine the old, get the kids back to school, and get the rest of us back to work. Stop prolonging this virus.
“Except they won’t be on their own.
They will be flooding the hospitals and crashing the healthcare system.
How is THAT going to work out for us? “
I know buy trying to convince the but flubros that the whole point of social distancing is to keep the peak cases under the load carrying capacity of the local hospital system is lost on people incapable or unwilling to do 5th grade mathematics. This virus like all other respiratory viruses will be stopped by only one way, and that is running out of hosts to infect. You can force a virus to run out if hosts three different ways. The first is do nothing and the virus will infect enough people that it runs out of new hosts and dies out. For polio that percentage is 95% it’s medical term is the viral penetration rate. For measles the penetration rate is 85%. This bug will have a penetration rate somewhere in that range to run out of hosts. The second method is vaccinate up to the same penetration rate of 85_95% thus starving the virus of hosts. The third is to discover a treatment that inhibits the viruses ability to replicate and then treat again upwards of 85_95 percent of the population again starving the virus of hosts. These are all irrefutable medical facts. The probability of a virus spontaneously mutating to a strain that has a lower R0 and CFR is vanishingly small. Social distancing does not do any of the above three it buys time for options two or three to be discovered and mass produced that’s all.
LMAO!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.