Look at the pattern towards mobility. It will continue. Desktops to notebooks, notebooks to netbooks, netbooks to tablets, having only a phone to manage your email, schedules, mapping and social networking. A phone today is about as powerful as a netbook of couple years ago.
Netbooks account for most of the notebook growth. Netbooks don't run Windows as much as the other segments, and in fact Chrome will be the OS for the "smartbooks" many companies are working on. The overall notebook market also isn't as dominated by Microsoft as the desktops. Microsoft disappears the more you go mobile.
Unless you mean losing marketshare, and having lower profit margins is "the plan"...;)
Yes, losing marketshare, in a quarter where people were waiting for the iPhone 4 and still on only one carrier in the US. Where Apple only plays in the high-end phone segment. Yeah, zero to 15% in three years, all the profits to one company, is bad. Don't forget this is in competition with several phone manufacturers and a few operating system companies. Even if Android hits 30% (likely at the expense of Nokia, not Apple, since most growth will be in the lower-end segment), that's still a few percent for each low-margin player, with Apple still keeping its high-margin profits on 15% all to itself (as noted, Apple's already taking in almost half the profits). That's looking good.
And where is Microsoft? Crappy Windows Mobile 6.x, disastrous Kin failure (the billion dollar mistake with a six-week market life), oft-delayed Win7 Phone that when released will be admittedly incomplete and not backwards compatible, tablets canceled due to iPad. W7P also has high hardware requirements, meaning it can't compete in the low-end to get volume any time soon. A lot of what you tout Android for, removable SD cards, multitasking, etc., to differentiate it from the iPhone won't even be in W7P. Not looking good.
I see Android growing far better than Microsoft can hope. Android Gingerbread will probably be out before Win7 Phone, and it will be the mature, solid third-generation Android. With an Android/iOS/RIM lock (assuming Nokia stays asleep) on the mobile market, Microsoft will likely remain irrelevant. There is the small possibility that Microsoft could buy its way back into the market by bribing and threatening OEMs and through the expected $400 million ad campaign.
Yep, and look at the software power running on those phones. Modern WinCE has everything - and more - that Win95 had. iOS is more powerful than the older OS9. Windows Phone 7 builds on that expectation, that power of the hardware will continue accelerating, and so build a phone OS that expects that.
Likewise with Android...
Netbooks account for most of the notebook growth. Netbooks don't run Windows as much as the other segments,
Huh? Can you find me a Netbook that doesn't come pre-loaded (at least as an option) with Windows? I think Asus' eeePC is the only one with a factory option for NOT having Windows installed! Windows totally owns the Netbook market.
and in fact Chrome will be the OS for the "smartbooks" many companies are working on.
Potentially, yes. I see smartbooks cannibalizing low-end netbooks and tablets, not so much notebooks and desktop PCs (and the notebook and desktop market is STILL growing at 24% - that's a doubling of market size every 3 years - NOT a 'dead' or static market at all!).
Yes, losing marketshare, in a quarter where people were waiting for the iPhone 4 and still on only one carrier in the US. Where Apple only plays in the high-end phone segment.
Actually, losing marketshare every quarter this year, and I'm sure it will have continued when this quarter ends, too... Worldwide, it's losing out to Android. I know, Apple fans will talk about US dominance - but again, that's a rapidly saturating market. Growth is coming from overseas. Just like in the PC market - growth is driven by Asia, South America, and Africa - NOT the US.
Even if Android hits 30% (likely at the expense of Nokia, not Apple, since most growth will be in the lower-end segment), that's still a few percent for each low-margin player, with Apple still keeping its high-margin profits on 15% all to itself (as noted, Apple's already taking in almost half the profits). That's looking good.
Yet Google makes more profit on its revenue than Apple. Android taking that big of a chunk of the smartphone market makes them just that much more money. They're more profitable, margin wise, than Apple.
Again, Google's smart in their approach - Samsung and Motorola are taking small margins to make hardware, and Google is making huge profits on ad deliveries to that hardware. They get the benefit of lower cost hardware sales without the hit in margin. Smart move, indeed!
W7P also has high hardware requirements, meaning it can't compete in the low-end to get volume any time soon.
Fully agree. MSFT is most likely looking to compete 3 years from now, when 2 GHz dual-core ARMs and 1 GB RAM phones are ubiquitous, and WP7 has matured and added more features. They know they have the time and money and leverage of owning the other platforms that they can come at it over a longer push.
Don't count out Microsoft. Too many companies have done that in the past and ended up getting passed by.
I see Android growing far better than Microsoft can hope
Oh, I agree! My own "Gartner thread" prediction was that Nokia still holds the lead at around 35%, Android at about the same, WP7 around 15%, iOS about 10%, and RIM and everyone else with that last 5%.