Posted on 09/13/2010 5:16:04 PM PDT by Swordmaker
Yawn.
Motley Fool doesn’t have all that great a track record in picking tech stocks. In the 90’s they pushed Iomega as the be all end all. Then, they pushed AOL, AOL, and more AOL.
I wish they’d leave Apple alone. I don’t like them.
"GOING TO GAIN" is pie in the sky in the future. A prediction is nose picking, nothing more.
I found it interesting that the chart shows the iPhone taking a decided 25% nosedive on the chart from the date of the report—which the private release to the client closely coincided with the release of the iPhone 4—as though some event occurred on that date that would impact the quality or salability of the iPhone to a far greater degree than other phones. Nothing could be further from the truth—it's not based on evidence or fact—it is mere wishful thinking, apparently placed there to please the purchaser of the study. Such "predictive" turns based on nothing historical are ALWAYS twaddle; there is NO justification for their inclusion except bias. That makes the quality of the entire report suspect.
The actual study said that Android's greatest gains would come in the low-end, commodity "feature phone" market where Nokia's Symbian would lose big unless Nokia could step up it's game.
The study also ignores a recent survey of Verizon customers that found that better than 60% of its smartphone customers would dump their current smartphones in favor of an iPhone as soon as their contracts expired if Verizon offered the Apple product over an Android offering. Similar surveys have shown similar results on Sprint and T-Mobile...
Apple has historically maintained approximately a 30% margin target on its products.
“”GOING TO GAIN” is pie in the sky in the future. A prediction is nose picking, nothing more. “
I’ll remember that when you post predictions on how Apple is going to perform. Kinda like this thread.
Wishful thinking my FRiend.
Teh Goggle are comparative noobs to the game, and only so much mileage can be had from me-tooism. Barring an unforeseen paragigm shift, Android will be matching a dated benchmark repeatedly. Apple is not a stationary target. They have an entire ecosystem of sorts with very impressive synergies. the strategy is all of one piece, and it’s been building layer upon layer since iTunes. The so-called computer industry doesn’t get it and the so-called cellphone industry doesn’t get it, they don’t exist anymore as separate industries. Consumer perception has altered profoundly in that regard over the course of just this past year.
In the '90s, Iomega was a great stock... with it's Zip removable HD Technology it was ubiquitous as a backup media. Iomega became superfluous with the development of the Flash Thumb drives and failed to move quickly to embrace them. Iomega still exists, but their stock languishes now after a being a good stock for a while. Those who invested in Iomega and got out right, made a killing... those who rode it down, didn't. The key was knowing when to jump ship into something else... Apple's big advantage is that it is a big company that behaves like a nimble start-up... creating new products and remaking old ones in ways others have not thought of.
If I had liquidated everything I had when I bought my first Apple stock (at $64 per share), I would be a paper millionaire today (and evil in the eyes of the Obama administration). Alas, I didn’t. Hindsight and all that.
I've got a better track record being optimistic about Apple than all you naysayers, my friend... :^)>
Just a few years ago they recommended buying Garmin stock when it was at $90. Soon after their recommendation, it fell to about $25.
In the computer market, Apple can demand the additional margin. Their products work due to the tight integration between their hardware and software.
The additional factor of their competition is that Microsoft isn’t a hardware company and the hardware companies for commodity PC’s are perfectly happy in a race to the bottom of a barrel filled with poop.
So Apple can demand high(er) margins for their laptops and desktops and people will happily pay them. The relationship is between Apple and their consumer.
In the phone market, however, there’s a third party at the table: the wireless carriers. When the carriers are offering handsets with a “X year contract,” there’s some margin being surrendered by the handset company to the carrier in order for the “X year contract” to make sense to the carrier. The Android handset guys are in a cutthroat contest just within the Android marketplace, and they’re going to ramp features at the same time they offer more software features against everything else in the market.
That’s where the margin erosion is going to come from.
Yeah... I'd like to see that reference that states such. I don't think that's anywhere near accurate.
On that we whole-heartedly agree!
Going from 3.4% in Q1 2009 to 3.6% in Q1 2010 really shouldn't qualify as surging...;)
If it does, then Linux going from 0.9% to 1.2% over the same time is a tsunami, and Win 7 going from 0% to 20% is absolutely earth-shattering!
And using forward-looking projections and static share assumptions for stock valuation isn't? Losing market share - even if overall revenue is up because the market is exploding - isn't usually considered a good thing from a financial standpoint.
Yes but they make up for it in volume.
In the 90’s, just about any “tech” stock was a great stock. Profits? Business plan? Margins? Pfah! None of that mattered. It was the “New Economy!”
Hell, there were even startups that went public who had, as their business model, “We will ship you kitty litter by mail!” For a short time, kitty-litter by mail was a great stock too.
Every generation get to see a stock bubble, and the dot-bomb era was ours. TMF confused a huge bull market for expertise in stock analysis.
BTTT
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