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The Idol Analyst: Sanjaya and the Angles

http://www.foxesonidol.com/cgi-bin/ae.pl?mode=4&article=article2078.art&page=1

by Bruce Barker — 04/06/2007

Sanjaya Malakar just keeps hanging on. But is it the end of American Idol? Bruce, the Idol Analyst, says no. In fact, it might be good for Idol! Don’t believe him? Read on to find out what he’s thinking and how it plays into the hands of A&R guys.

Just like you, I’ve been reading about it, hearing about it, and watching it. Week after week, Sanjaya Malakar inexplicably manages to survive while other, better singers, head for the exits. It’s the biggest news story of the Idol season. It’s also the biggest pile of hype and bull chips I’ve seen in some time.

Let’s do something almost nobody has bothered to do this season. Let’s apply some logic to the Sanjaya situation. The big argument is “the longer he stays the more times a better singer has his or her stay cut short.” Well, let’s think about it for a minute. How many times can Sanjaya be eliminated? Just one. How many people will win American Idol? Just one. Is there a big difference between finishing sixth and finishing fifth? Just one digit.

With each season of the program, it seems more of the finalists wind up with record deals of one sort or another. At last count, six of last year’s finalists had hit the charts. Even Bucky Covington and Kellie Pickler have careers that are starting off quite well. The big winner from last season isn’t even the current Idol Taylor Hicks. He’s still fighting gamely to beat the sales of William Hung. The big winner, as I’m sure you know, is Chris Daughtry. You can’t turn on the radio or watch an elimination without hearing him.

So who is Sanjaya really hurting by lingering each week? Every person still on the show will be on the tour, so he isn’t hurting anyone there. An argument could be made that he’s hurting someone’s chances at a record deal, but even there, he isn’t doing anyone any harm. Cream rises to the top, as the multi-platinum sales of Daughtry’s CD proves. If some marketing wizard thinks a buck can be made off of Gina Glocksen, she’ll be signed in no time. You can almost rest assured we haven’t heard the last of some of the contestants who have already gone packing. Chris Sligh will be back, as will Gina.

But compare these two performers to the likes of Jordin Sparks and Melinda Doolittle. Is there really anyone out there who believes that Chris and Gina had a prayer of winning the season? They might have gone home a bit prematurely, but I think everyone would agree that at some point they would have gone home well before the confetti could fly at the finale.

In the very first season of Idol, there was a singer who inexplicably hung on week after week. Many talented singers went home ahead of her. Yet somehow, Nikki took third place in the inaugural season. People were furious. The backlash that Nikki experienced each week brought her to tears. To be fair, some of her performances brought the viewers to tears for entirely different reasons. Here we are years later and Nikki, despite several attempts, has failed to release a debut album. Her latest effort indicates that some time in May she will indeed finally release a CD. So even a third place finish by Sanjaya doesn’t necessarily change a thing.

But let’s look at the man through the eyes of an A&R person. For those unfamiliar with the music industry, A&R stands for “Artists & Repertoire.” These individuals are the bread and butter of the business. It is their job to find new talent, groom the talent, choose the music for the talent, and build the career of the talent. The thing is though, they don’t actually work for the talent. They work for the music label. There are at present only five main labels. Most of the music America buys is produced by these five labels or some smaller company that is actually owned by the big five.

The real job of the A&R people is to make more money for the big five. They are ruthless, hopelessly opinionated, and have an almost perfect eye for what will make money. If it sounds like I just described Simon Cowell, you’re right. He made his career as a successful A&R man. Randy Jackson has also made millions in that role. They have no time for the semi-talented. They have no patience for anyone or anything they perceive as a waste of their time.

I’ve known several A&R men in my time. I’ve not ever met an A&R woman, although there are some in the business. But I do know enough about the way these people think to know what they see when they watch these Idol contestants. If someone stumbles into the top ten without an angle that an A&R rep can exploit, their career is over. Kellie Pickler parlayed the dumb country blonde routine into a recording career. Chris Daughtry and Bo Bice used their refusal to sell out their rock and roll roots to build enough credibility that rockers would buy their music. Ruben Studdard tried the whole “205” hook, but that was overridden the moment Gladys Knight dubbed him as the “Velvet Teddy Bear.”

What’s that you say? I didn’t mention anything about singing talent? I have two words for you – William Hung. You don’t need singing talent to be a music star. Sure it helps, but it isn’t a requirement. You can go far in the business without having a golden throat and there are tricks that even an average studio engineer knows that will make the worst singer sound like a songbird. Some singers can even use their voices as their “angle” as they pursue a career. Clay Aiken became the talk of America not just because he had a great voice, but because nobody could believe that a voice that good could come out of such an odd looking young man. In short, Clay took the Jim Nabors path and it worked for him.

So let’s look at the angles the contestants are displaying for the A&R people in Season Six. We have the power divas. Melinda’s angle is that she’s been a background singer and golly, she’s just so shocked that people like to hear her sing alone! Make no mistake about it – even if she was sincere at the beginning, the day has arrived when Melinda is either going to have to drop the shocked expressions or watch as millions of viewers grow tired of it.

There will be people tripping over themselves to sign Melinda because she’s got experience and skill to spare. But the A&R man who signs her is going to have to be very careful in picking the songs for her debut. If they give her standards, young fans will write her off. If they give her modern ballads, her older fans will get bored. She can command a stage, but you don’t watch a CD. All you can do is listen. This is the nightmare that Ruben and even Taylor have woken up to.

Then there’s LaKisha. The lady has a voice good enough to make an angel jealous. But will she make money for the labels? It’s easy to toss her out to the public as “The big black girl who can really belt a tune.” But even though that has worked countless times in the past, there are already several such singers out in the world making the big bucks. Jennifer Holiday and now Jennifer Hudson all but have the market cornered, and God help both of them if Aretha decides to record again. There’s only so much room and LaKisha is going to have to carve out a career for herself by nudging others aside.

Her best bet is likely in the dance clubs and she’ll likely wind up making upbeat modern disco music. This isn’t a bad thing, it’s just the best place for her to start. She doesn’t really have an angle to exploit. Because of this she’s my pick to be the really big shock exit of the season. I see her doing no better than fourth.

Looking over at the guys, we see Phil Stacy. His Navy hook has worn thin. You’ll notice it’s barely mentioned anymore. Unless they cast the lead for another remake of Salem’s Lot anytime soon, he has no shot at an acting career. He doesn’t have the looks. In fact, to an A&R man, Phil is a nightmare. He isn’t pretty, he isn’t smooth, he isn’t a natural singer, and he can look downright scary. He’s going to have a hard time convincing a label that he can hook a large enough audience to merit so much as a glance. Phil is my pick to be the Idol afterthought this year. He’s the guy everyone will barely remember at all. If anyone is really hanging on at the expense of others, it’s Phil.

What about Chris Richardson? Chris is in deep trouble. His big angle so far is that he looks and sounds like Justin Timberlake. This also means he looks and sounds like about 400 other young men trying to break into the business. Music is a copycat industry in many ways and Chris is showing up just as the A&R men have glutted the marketplace with young suave urban singers and young suave suburbanite singers with scruffy beards. Unless Chris comes up with something unique and separates himself from the masses that look and sound just like him, his music career will be very brief.

So where does that leave us? Haley? Her angle is… well, her angles. She is masking her mediocre singing talent with dresses so short they might as well be scarves. Her tops are so low cut her cleavage could double as a microphone stand. Putting it bluntly, she’s a flasher in the pan. She’s got a much better shot at a career than the two men I’ve already spoken about because an A&R man knows that tight clothes and a well-produced video will make a whole pile of money.

In the Season Six Idol yearbook, Haley is the one voted “Most Likely To Be Exploited.” She’ll make a big splash and then disappear. Remember the “Milkshake” singer from a few years ago? She was all the rage for about 15 minutes. What was her name again? Exactly. Next week, Jennifer Lopez is going to mentor the finalists in the fine art of Latin music. If Haley picks a ballad, she’s toast. If she shakes it around like Charo having a seizure, she’ll survive.

Now we get to the truly good stuff. These are the singers who the A&R person sees and drools with covetous anticipation. Let’s start with Blake Lewis. He’s a white beat boxer with a pretty nifty tenor voice to go with it. He has the look. He has a sexy way of sliding and dancing around on the stage. All this means he’s safe. I’m not playing the race card here, but I am going to speak the way an A&R man thinks and it’s all about marketing. Parents are nervous about rappers. They are more than a little uncomfortable with the violent and sexist lyrics, and the average white suburbanite couple isn’t going to be happy when junior brings home the latest Thug Sensation. Now along comes this squeaky clean looking white boy who can bridge the gap between the rhythms the kids love and the image the parents prefer.

Blake is pure gold. He has the potential to succeed where countless others have failed. He can be the acceptable hip-hop alternative. His one problem, and some of the other contestants have already made comments about it, is that he’s arrogant. A certain amount of ego and hubris is acceptable, but if it comes out too much, the performer can boast himself right out of a career. Terrance Trent D’arby anyone? He’s going to need to at least learn to appear humble or he could be facing trouble down the road.

Another A&R dream is Jordin Sparks. She’s beautiful. She can sing the lights out. Her voice is still growing and improving. Older men will lust after her. Young girls will want to look and dress like her. All these things are assets, but they aren’t the thing that really get an A&R man excited and panting like a dog in heat. More important than all the things already mentioned is this: Jordin Sparks is malleable. We’re talking new clay. She doesn’t have an attitude. She doesn’t have a clue what type of music is best for her career. If you doubt me, look at her recent performances. She gave a breathy and stellar rendition of “On a Clear Day” as a follow-up to one of Gwen Stefani’s most energetic pop hits.

Once again, being blunt here and looking at marketability, with that face and that voice there are about 200 different musical directions that an A&R man can take Jordin. All they have to do is look at what’s hot and select tunes in that style. Jordin will sing them well and look like a million bucks while doing it. Most importantly, she won’t argue over her “artistic direction.” Pinning Simon down to a direct answer at this point in the season is harder than nailing water to a wall, but I’d bet big money he’s hoping Jordin stands alone at the finale. His cronies at 19 Productions will make Jordin the biggest thing since Madonna took over the music industry.

Last but not least, we come to our dear friend Sanjaya. I used to cringe every time he walked onto the stage. I would wince at every bad note. Then Sanjaya made me see the light. If I had a shot at signing Sanjaya, I would make millions. I would make them in less than two years and then coast through the rest of my life. Why two years? Because that’s the lifespan of a male bubblegum pop star. Heard anything new from Aaron Carter lately? His career was two years and done. It’s the history of bubblegum. The rhythm of light pop is two and out. David Cassidy? He was on a smash hit television show. His pop career lasted about two years. Remember Hanson? They’re still around, struggling to get people to accept their more “adult” sound. Their chart career was two years and out. New Kids on the Block? You guessed it.

Oh there are exceptions, but they are very rare. How many of you are sitting awake at night worried that the Backstreet Boys might not cut a new album? Sanjaya’s career will be over quicker than you can say Leif Garrett. He’s the new Bay City Rollers. During his brief two-year stint however, his earnings potential has no limits. Remember the Spice Girls? They were yet another of Simon’s brilliant creations and during their two-year reign they were everywhere. Movies, concerts, CDs, collectible dolls, clothing lines, you name it and it got Spiced.

The same can be done with Sanjaya. A couple of CDs worth of pop classic remakes like “I Only Wanna Be With You” and “Sweet and Innocent” along with perhaps a television special or ten, and the money will just roll in. It doesn’t matter that in two years his audience will have grown out of him and turned to richer music. The business can’t survive without a manufactured superstar and A&R men have been cranking them out with regularity for decades. It doesn’t matter that he can’t sing. A studio engineer will bury the vocal flaws in the mix of the music and make Sanjaya sound like a young Stevie Wonder. With some practice, Sanjaya can take his natural vocal talent and become a mediocre singer with a million potential 12-year-old girlfriends buying his music. More than any other contestant this year, Sanjaya is money.

So does he deserve to win Idol? Hell no. Will he win Idol? He’d have better odds buying lottery tickets. It simply isn’t going to happen. But the boy is gonna be rich, mark my words. Simon can crow about the “singing competition” he is judging, but the real truth is that American Idol is about finding the next big cash cow for 19 Productions.

Have you seen Taylor’s triumphant return to the Idol stage? Nope, and it isn’t likely to happen soon. He didn’t break out with a big hit and he’s the first winner to fail in that regard. It doesn’t matter that his album was poorly produced or that the engineer dropped the ball in post-production by sterilizing all the energy out of the disc. It didn’t sell. Once Chris Daughtry and his eponymous band proved they could make a serious dent in the sales chart, Idol ignored Taylor and climbed on board the Daughtry bandwagon. The show goes where the money is. Sanjaya will be signed to a 19 label within hours of his exit which, by the way, is about three weeks away.

My point is this. Sanjaya Malakar isn’t going to ruin Idol. Far from it. He’ll be gone long before any of the singers that have a real shot at winning. It doesn’t matter whether he finishes in sixth or even third. But Idol is only the beginning. Sanjaya won’t be forgotten. Not for at least two years.