Dover will never reach SCOTUS which is why Judge Jones saw fit to wax poetically about things he is unqualified to wax about. He would have been overturned for imitating a peer review board without a license.
Cobb County is where the action is at. the ACLU will pursue it to SCOTUS after the 11th Circuit overrules the trial judge, perhaps even with prejudice.
With Alito on board, they may have enough votes to grant cert for the sole purpose of writing some religious clause jurisprudence that doesn't resemble Timothy Leary on a bad day.
I think your analysis is right on target.