Here are the Federal Reserve's historical G.17 indices for manufacturing output, and while they do show a record level in the latest months available, it's only 118.9 in November 2004 versus 118.5 in May and June of 2000. There has yet to be a quarter to be beat the 2nd quarter of 2000 at 118.3 (though the 3rd quarter of 2004 was very close at 118), and no year is even close to 2000's 117.3 (2003 was only 111.9).
Table 7A
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: Manufacturing <1>
Seasonally adjusted
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
| Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.| Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4|Annual <2>
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
IP (percent | | |
change) | | |
1974 | -.9 -.4 -.1 -.2 .5 .1 -.1 -.8 .1 -.8 -3.0 -4.5 | -3.4 -.3 -1.5 -16.4 | -.3
1975 | -1.9 -3.0 -1.3 -.3 .1 .8 1.5 1.0 1.7 .4 .3 1.3 | -28.8 -7.0 14.1 10.5 | -10.5
| | |
1976 | 1.3 1.3 .1 .8 .4 .0 .8 .7 .2 .1 1.3 1.0 | 13.5 6.8 5.8 6.8 | 8.9
1977 | -.3 1.7 1.4 1.1 .8 .8 .2 .6 .2 .4 .1 1.0 | 10.4 14.3 5.7 4.6 | 8.7
1978 | -1.5 .4 1.7 1.5 .3 .7 .0 .5 .5 .8 .9 .9 | .1 13.5 4.3 9.0 | 6.0
1979 | -.9 .5 .5 -1.4 1.1 .1 .1 -1.3 .3 .3 -.3 .4 | 1.7 -.8 -.9 -.1 | 3.1
1980 | .4 -.1 -.8 -2.0 -3.0 -1.5 -.9 .7 1.6 1.7 1.8 .3 | .8 -18.7 -7.6 18.8 | -3.7
| | |
1981 | -.3 -.6 .3 .5 .6 -.5 .2 .1 -.5 -1.0 -1.2 -1.6 | .7 3.2 .1 -10.0 | 1.1
1982 | -2.3 2.7 -.8 -.6 -.2 -.2 -.2 -.8 -.4 -1.1 -.7 -.5 | -8.8 -2.0 -4.1 -8.6 | -5.4
1983 | 2.5 -.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 .8 1.5 .8 1.9 1.1 .3 .2 | 8.7 12.3 15.5 12.5 | 4.6
1984 | 1.9 1.1 .5 .5 .3 .5 .5 .2 -.2 .4 .4 .4 | 12.9 6.1 3.8 2.8 | 9.9
1985 | -.4 -.3 .8 -.3 .1 .1 -.6 .6 .1 -.2 .6 .4 | .1 1.0 .0 2.4 | 1.7
| | |
1986 | 1.2 -.7 -.3 .3 .2 -.4 .5 .3 .2 .4 .5 .9 | 4.6 -.3 2.4 5.0 | 2.2
1987 | -.3 1.5 .0 .5 .7 .4 .7 .5 .5 1.6 .6 .6 | 6.0 6.7 6.9 11.2 | 5.5
1988 | -.2 .1 .3 .8 -.1 .1 .1 .1 .4 .6 .2 .4 | 2.4 4.2 1.4 4.9 | 5.2
1989 | .8 -1.0 -.1 .1 -.9 .2 -1.1 .9 -.3 -.1 .2 .2 | 1.6 -3.4 -3.0 .8 | .8
1990 | -.2 1.4 .4 -.2 .0 .3 -.2 .3 .0 -.8 -1.1 -.8 | 4.1 2.7 .6 -6.5 | .7
| | |
1991 | -.8 -.6 -.6 .3 .8 1.1 .3 .3 1.0 -.2 -.2 -.1 | -8.9 2.1 7.3 1.6 | -2.0
1992 | -.6 .9 .9 .5 .7 .2 .8 -.3 .0 .6 .4 -.2 | .8 8.0 3.8 2.7 | 3.7
1993 | 1.1 .2 -.1 .5 -.1 -.1 .3 .0 .6 .8 .5 .6 | 4.7 1.6 1.4 7.1 | 3.5
1994 | .2 .1 1.3 .8 .7 .3 .5 .7 .3 1.1 .7 1.1 | 5.1 9.5 6.1 9.8 | 6.0
1995 | .4 -.1 .2 -.1 .0 .4 -.6 1.2 .9 -.1 .0 .5 | 5.6 .4 3.1 4.6 | 5.3
| | |
1996 | -1.1 1.5 -.3 1.2 .7 1.1 .3 .6 .8 .0 .9 1.0 | .7 9.5 8.0 6.8 | 4.6
1997 | .3 1.4 .8 .1 .5 .7 .5 1.2 .9 .7 .8 .5 | 10.2 6.8 9.5 10.2 | 8.5
1998 | .8 .2 .1 .8 .3 -.5 -.2 2.2 -.4 1.0 .0 .4 | 6.3 3.9 3.6 6.6 | 6.6
1999 | .4 .7 .1 .4 .9 -.2 .4 .9 -.3 1.3 .6 .9 | 4.9 4.9 4.5 9.0 | 5.2
2000 | .0 .3 .9 .7 .4 .0 -.3 -.6 .3 -.5 -.5 -.5 | 5.2 6.7 -1.8 -3.7 | 4.6
| | |
2001 | -.9 -.6 -.4 -.2 -.5 -.7 -.3 -.4 -.5 -.5 -.2 .2 | -7.6 -4.8 -5.2 -4.0 | -4.2
2002 | .7 -.2 .4 .2 .3 .8 -.2 .1 .0 -.7 .0 -.5 | 2.8 3.4 2.2 -3.2 | -.4
2003 | .3 -.1 -.2 -.9 .1 .6 .3 -.2 1.0 .3 1.1 .0 | -.6 -3.3 3.9 6.5 | .0
2004 | .2 1.2 .1 .6 .6 -.1 .8 .4 -.4 .7 .2 | 5.6 6.0 4.1 |
| | |
IP (1997=100) | | |
1974 | 53.1 52.9 52.8 52.7 53.0 53.0 52.9 52.5 52.6 52.2 50.6 48.3 | 52.9 52.9 52.7 50.4 | 52.2
1975 | 47.4 46.0 45.4 45.3 45.3 45.7 46.4 46.8 47.6 47.8 48.0 48.6 | 46.3 45.4 47.0 48.1 | 46.7
| | |
1976 | 49.2 49.9 50.0 50.4 50.6 50.6 51.0 51.3 51.4 51.4 52.1 52.7 | 49.7 50.5 51.2 52.1 | 50.9
1977 | 52.5 53.4 54.2 54.8 55.2 55.6 55.7 56.0 56.1 56.4 56.4 57.0 | 53.4 55.2 56.0 56.6 | 55.3
1978 | 56.2 56.4 57.3 58.2 58.4 58.8 58.8 59.1 59.3 59.8 60.4 60.9 | 56.6 58.4 59.1 60.3 | 58.6
1979 | 60.3 60.6 60.9 60.0 60.7 60.8 60.8 60.0 60.2 60.4 60.2 60.4 | 60.6 60.5 60.3 60.3 | 60.4
1980 | 60.6 60.6 60.1 58.9 57.1 56.2 55.7 56.1 57.0 58.0 59.1 59.2 | 60.5 57.4 56.3 58.8 | 58.2
| | |
1981 | 59.0 58.7 58.9 59.2 59.6 59.3 59.4 59.5 59.2 58.6 57.9 57.0 | 58.9 59.3 59.4 57.8 | 58.8
1982 | 55.7 57.1 56.7 56.3 56.2 56.1 56.0 55.5 55.3 54.7 54.4 54.1 | 56.5 56.2 55.6 54.4 | 55.7
1983 | 55.4 55.3 55.9 56.5 57.3 57.7 58.6 59.0 60.2 60.9 61.0 61.2 | 55.5 57.2 59.3 61.0 | 58.3
1984 | 62.4 63.0 63.3 63.6 63.8 64.1 64.4 64.5 64.4 64.7 64.9 65.1 | 62.9 63.9 64.4 64.9 | 64.0
1985 | 64.9 64.7 65.2 65.0 65.1 65.2 64.8 65.2 65.3 65.1 65.5 65.8 | 64.9 65.1 65.1 65.5 | 65.1
| | |
1986 | 66.6 66.1 65.9 66.2 66.3 66.0 66.4 66.6 66.7 67.0 67.3 67.9 | 66.2 66.2 66.6 67.4 | 66.6
1987 | 67.7 68.7 68.7 69.1 69.6 69.8 70.3 70.6 71.0 72.1 72.6 73.0 | 68.4 69.5 70.7 72.6 | 70.3
1988 | 72.8 72.9 73.2 73.8 73.7 73.8 73.9 73.9 74.2 74.7 74.9 75.1 | 73.0 73.7 74.0 74.9 | 73.9
1989 | 75.7 75.0 74.9 75.0 74.3 74.4 73.6 74.3 74.1 74.0 74.2 74.3 | 75.2 74.6 74.0 74.2 | 74.5
1990 | 74.1 75.1 75.4 75.3 75.3 75.5 75.4 75.6 75.6 75.0 74.2 73.6 | 74.9 75.4 75.5 74.3 | 75.0
| | |
1991 | 73.0 72.6 72.1 72.3 72.8 73.6 73.8 74.0 74.8 74.6 74.5 74.4 | 72.5 72.9 74.2 74.5 | 73.6
1992 | 74.0 74.6 75.3 75.7 76.2 76.4 77.0 76.7 76.7 77.2 77.5 77.3 | 74.7 76.1 76.8 77.3 | 76.2
1993 | 78.2 78.3 78.2 78.6 78.5 78.5 78.7 78.6 79.1 79.8 80.2 80.6 | 78.2 78.5 78.8 80.2 | 78.9
1994 | 80.8 80.9 81.9 82.6 83.2 83.4 83.8 84.4 84.6 85.5 86.2 87.1 | 81.2 83.1 84.3 86.3 | 83.7
1995 | 87.5 87.4 87.5 87.4 87.4 87.8 87.2 88.3 89.1 89.0 89.1 89.5 | 87.5 87.5 88.2 89.2 | 88.1
| | |
1996 | 88.6 89.9 89.6 90.7 91.3 92.3 92.5 93.1 93.9 93.8 94.7 95.6 | 89.4 91.4 93.2 94.7 | 92.2
1997 | 95.9 97.2 98.0 98.1 98.6 99.3 99.8 101.0 101.9 102.7 103.5 104.0 | 97.0 98.7 100.9 103.4 | 100.0
1998 | 104.8 105.0 105.1 105.9 106.3 105.7 105.5 107.9 107.5 108.5 108.5 108.9 | 105.0 106.0 106.9 108.7 | 106.6
1999 | 109.4 110.2 110.3 110.7 111.7 111.5 112.0 112.9 112.6 114.1 114.9 115.9 | 110.0 111.3 112.5 115.0 | 112.2
2000 | 115.8 116.2 117.2 118.0 118.5 118.5 118.2 117.4 117.8 117.3 116.7 116.1 | 116.4 118.3 117.8 116.7 | 117.3
| | |
2001 | 115.0 114.3 113.9 113.7 113.1 112.3 112.0 111.6 111.0 110.5 110.2 110.5 | 114.4 113.0 111.5 110.4 | 112.3
2002 | 111.2 110.9 111.4 111.6 111.9 112.8 112.6 112.8 112.7 112.0 112.0 111.4 | 111.2 112.1 112.7 111.8 | 111.9
2003 | 111.8 111.6 111.5 110.4 110.5 111.1 111.5 111.3 112.4 112.7 113.9 113.9 | 111.6 110.7 111.7 113.5 | 111.9
2004 | 114.1 115.5 115.6 116.4 117.1 116.9 117.8 118.3 117.8 118.6 118.9 | 115.1 116.8 118.0 |
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: Estimates from September 2004 through November 2004 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases.
<1> See footnote 2 to table 3.
<2> Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes.
As to dollar value, the Census Bureau publishes the Annual Survey of Manufactures; for the 2003 report, it shows that in current 2000 dollars (not inflation-adjusted or otherwise made "real" or "constant" -- see the note on page 8) that the best year for dollar value of manufacturing shipments was 2000 at 4.2 trillion dollars and the second best was 1999 (page 11). In real dollar terms, the dollar value of manufacturing shipments dropped in the period from 2001 to 2003.
It may be that 2005 sets a record for total manufacturing value shipped in current dollars, but I don't think it's likely in real dollars. Certainly 2002 and 2003 were dismal, and 2004 was only marginally better.
I wondered why your "analysis" that "proved" that our manufacturing output was weak ignored 2005's statistics for manufacturing output -- so I looked them up.
I see that manufacturing output was 118.6 in March, 118.2 in April, 118.6 in May and 119.7 in June -- well above the output figures from Clinton's "golden years".
I wonder. Will you NOW apologize for presenting misleading statistics to us?