The first and most obvious thing wrong with creationist math is the assumption that there is a specified goal to be reached. It's fairly easy to discredit natural selection if you don't know what it is and lie about it.
For those who play Bridge (is there anyone left?) the creationists are calculating the odds of a specific hand being dealt, rather than calculating the odds of reaching game.
Or for poker players, creationists are calculating the odds of being dealt a royal flush in spades, rather than calculating the odds of winning the hand.
The probabilites are cited by the creationist but they come from the evolutionist. Get it straight before you go making any more ridiculous analogies!