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Leif Svalgaard claims “TSI has not fallen since 2003″. It’s technically true in a sense, but demonstrably false when discussing 11 year smoothed trends (which is written on the graph he was criticizing). Willis Eschenbach sadly was carried along. This post is in response to an overheated thread at WUWT. Both men owe David Evans an apology. The fuss is over the big fall in TSI.  Leif Svalgaard said it was “almost fraudulent” that we claimed there was a fall in TSI since 2003 since there wasn’t a fall in this dataset. He says: “There is no such drop.” I...

Update on the progress of Tropical Cyclone Arthur.

A spectacular light show blazed over Chicago on Monday night as forks of lightning repeatedly stuck three of the city's most iconic towers at the same time. A powerful storm system swept through the Midwest last night where tornado and flood warnings were issued. The fierce weather also brought frequent lightning bolts which hit the Willis, Trump and Hancock towers all at once along the Chicago skyline.

John Coleman, an award-winning meteorologist and weatherman with sixty years of experience and founder of the Weather Channel, produced a video explaining the history of the man-made global warming hoax.

000 WTNT31 KNHC 010301 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORMS EAST OF FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 79.1W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM NNW OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...

Two years ago during the scorching summer of 2012, July 1936 lost its place on the leaderboard and July 2012 became the hottest month on record in the United States. Now, as if by magic, and according to NOAA’s own data, July 1936 is now the hottest month on record again. The past, present, and future all seems to be “adjustable” in NOAA’s world. See the examples below. Josh has been busy again and writes at Bishop Hill with a new cartoon:The temperature adjustments story has been brewing for weeks principally due to the many posts at ‘RealScience’ but taken up...

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 6m I am worried this can get to cat 3 by July 4..we have it as a 2. But to put in perspective, Able, MAY 1951 was cat 3 off NC.

Posted on June 28, 2014 by Guest Blogger Guest essay by David ArchibaldA couple of years ago the question was asked “When will it start cooling?” Of course solar denialists misconstrued this innocent enquiry. There is no doubt – we all know that lower solar irradiance will result in lower temperatures on this planet. It is a question of when. Solar activity is much lower than it was at a similar stage of the last solar cycle but Earthly temperatures have remained stubbornly flat. Nobody is happy with this situation. All 50 of the IPCC climate models have now been...

From Royal Holloway, University of LondonNew research published today (Friday 27th June 2014) in the journal Nature Scientific Reports has provided a major new theory on the cause of the ice age that covered large parts of the Northern Hemisphere 2.6 million years ago.The study, co-authored by Dr Thomas Stevens, from the Department of Geography at Royal Holloway, University of London, found a previously unknown mechanism by which the joining of North and South America changed the salinity of the Pacific Ocean and caused major ice sheet growth across the Northern Hemisphere.The change in salinity encouraged sea ice to...

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, CALIF. | First in an occasional series On a cool January day in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada mountains, Steve Ellis culled his sick bees. The only sounds were their steady buzz and the chuffing of the smoker he used to keep them calm as he opened the hives, one by one, to see how many had survived. The painful chore has become an annual ritual for Ellis, and, hardened now like a medic on the front lines, he crowned another box with a big rock to mark it. “This one is G.A.D.,” he said. “Good...

Magnitude 6.9 - 154km NNW of Visokoi Island, 2014-06-29 07:52:56 UTC USGS Seismologists reduced the magnitude from 7.2 to 6.9 magnitude No Tsunami Warnings or Advisories: Preliminary Quake Information (NTWC) Location: in the South Sandwich Islands region, South Atlantic Ocean Preliminary Magnitude: 7.2(MWP) Depth: 21.7 (Mi) Lat: 55.5 ° S / Lon: 28.5 ° W Origin Time: 6/29/2014, 12:52:57 AM Bulletin 1 6/29/2014, 1:05:03 AM Last Event Details Location: in the South Sandwich Islands region, South Atlantic Ocean Magnitude: 7.2, Depth: 21.7 (Mi.) Lat: 55.5 ° S Lon: 28.5 ° W Origin Time: 6/29/2014, 12:52:57 AM

Nils‐Axel Mörner has a new paper out (his 589th). For 60 years he has been tracking the coastlines close to him, and carefully isolated the exact part which appears to be the most stable. From that he shows that the real sea-level rise in Northern Europe is less than 1 millimeter a year since 1890. This is less that the 1.6mm trend in 182 NOAA tide gauges, and far below the estimates of the IPCC reports.There is also no sign of acceleration in sea-levels for the last 50 years. (How much should Europeans spend to stop a 1mm annual...

New solar theory predicts imminent global cooling To recap — using an optimal Fourier Transform, David Evans discovered a form of notch filter operating between changes in sunlight and temperatures on Earth. This means there must be a delay — probably around 11 years. This not only fitted with the length of the solar dynamo cycle, but also with previous independent work suggesting a lag of ten years or a correlation with the solar activity of the previous cycle. The synopsis then is that solar irradiance (TSI) is a leading indicator of some other effect coming from the Sun...

The Solar Series: I Background   |  II: The notch filter  |  III: The delay  |  IV: A new solar force?  |  V: Modeling the escaping heat.  |  VI: The solar climate model   |  VII — Hindcasting (You are here)   | VIII — PredictionsAll models are wrong, some are useful. That’s how all modelers speak (except perhaps some climate scientists).The barriers to making a good climate model are many. The data is short, noisy, adjusted, and many factors are simultaneously at work, some not well described yet. Climate modeling is in its infancy, yet billions of dollars rests...

Hurricane forecast; Fourth of July forecast; Arctic/Antarctic cooling/ice extant.

Angela Merkel stated today that Germany would leave its 1,500 tonnes of gold in the Federal Reserve vault in NYC for continued safekeeping. Proponents for repatriation of German gold were outraged that Angie would double-cross them after initially agreeing to have at least 674 tonnes of gold repatriated. Insiders confirmed that only 5 tonnes of gold were repatriated before shipments were inexplicably stopped. The current Federal Reserve Chairthing, Janet Yelling, announced today that the former Federal Reserve Chairthing, Ben Bernanke's computer hard drive had crashed destroying the inventory of gold on deposit with the Fed. Shockingly, the six backup copies...

Fighting climate change would help grow the world economy, according to the World Bank, adding up to $2.6tn (£1.5tn) a year to global GDP in the coming decades. The findings, made available in a report on Tuesday, offer a sharp contrast with claims by the Australian government that fighting climate change would “clobber” the economy. The report also advances on the work of economists who have argued that it will be far more costly in the long run to delay action on climate change. Instead, Tuesday's report found a number of key policies – none of which included putting an...

Sometimes, in response to natural climate patterns, the jet stream becomes abnormally wavy. Such amplified waves have coincided with heat and cold waves, droughts and flooding across the world, according to a study published yesterday in Nature Climate Change. Take the past winter in North America, for example. The eastern and central United States were plunged into a deep freeze, Alaska was unusually warm and California was dry. Above the continent, the jet stream was indulging in some unusual behavior. Its northward swing was so big that it sucked warmer air right into Alaska, which was positively balmy in the...

“Climate change” is a theory for which there is “no scientific proof at all” says the co-founder of Greenpeace. And the green movement has become a “combination of extreme political ideology and religious fundamentalism rolled into one.” Patrick Moore, a Canadian environmentalist who helped found Greenpeace in the Seventies but subsequently left in protest at its increasingly extreme, anti-scientific, anti-capitalist stance, argues that the green position on climate change fails the most basic principles of the scientific method. “The certainty among many scientists that humans are the main cause of climate change, including global warming, is not based on the...

Across the edges of the Indian Ocean, the amount of rainfall differs greatly. If it rains particularly hard in the Sumatran rain forest, the already arid region of East Africa is onset with drought. Researchers from the Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), the California Institute of Technology, the Univerity of Southern California and the University of Bremen found that this cyclic, bipolar climate phenomenon has likely been around for 10,000 years. The pilot study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), sheds light on the climate system of a region whose rainfall patterns have a...