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A good January for stocks promises big gains for the year --or so goes the story goes (from Down January for stocks is bad omen for 2014 - USA Today) "How stocks fare in January often sets the tone for the full year".   A lot of work's been done on this, and TradingSim reports that   When the S&P500 has a net positive gain in the first five trading days of the year, there is about an 86% chance that the stock market will rise for the year, it has worked in 31 out of the last 36 years (as of...

In 2014, Wall Street's stock market forecasts proved too conservative. The S&P 500 closed the year at 2,058, above the year-end forecast of all but one strategist — FundStrat's Tom Lee. For 2015, Wall Street sees stocks gaining some ground, but few strategists are calling for the fourth straight year of double-digit gains from stocks. The average year-end target on the S&P 500 is 2,225 on earnings of $125.35, with the median forecast for the S&P 500 to rise to 2,213 on earnings of $126. Tom Lee is a big bull again, as is Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus and RBC's Jonathan...

Not only does the U.S. Chamber of Commerce think it is the only reason the GOP won in November, it is now threatening Republicans with opposition next go round if they don’t lay down and give the Chamber precisely what it wants, including on immigration, increased spending on transportation, and economic deals that sweeten the pot for big business.Naturally, the Wall Street Journal is there to carry the Chamber’s water: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce flexed its muscle in the midterm election, winning 14 of 15 Republican primaries in which it was involved and helping the GOP recapture the Senate. Now it wants...

            [click to enlarge]         Weird, all our doom'n'gloomers have disappeared!  Usually the pundits are warning about the big upcoming market crash but look at what the latest "expert" predictions are for 2015 stock market returns: Outlook 2015: Year Ahead Reports & Analysis Our 2015 year-end target for the S&P 500 is 2200, putting returns on a more-normal pace of 6%.Barron's Cover Outlook 2015: Stick With the Bull Wall Street’s top strategists expect the S&P 500 to rally 10% Markets  Wall Street bull: Market will rise another 14% in 2015 Add to this the fact that we're still overdue for our longer term...

Stocks are pushing further into record territory as the Dow Jones industrial average tops 18,000 points for the first time. Traders have been encouraged by signs of strength in the U.S. economy and reassurances that the Federal Reserve won't interest rates soon. There was more encouraging news early Tuesday as the U.S. government reported that the economy powered ahead at a 5 percent annual rate in the third quarter. That was the fastest pace in more than a decade. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 43 points, or 0.2 percent, to 18,003 as of 9:35 a.m. Easter. The Standard &...

Liberals powerless to stop the Clinton-Wall Street gravy train.Despite her best efforts and most passionate gesticulations, Senator Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) failed to shut down the government on Thursday, thus proving her political clout is vastly inferior to that of GOP colleague Ted Cruz. Warren had urged House Democrats to block a controversial spending package, which included a provision to roll back a portion of the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill known as the “swaps pushout” rule. Warren, for the record, does not like Wall Street. “It is time for all of us to stand up and fight,” she said on...

2014 Recap --Looking Back; Investment & Finance Thread - Dec. 14 [click for link to list] Merry Christmas!   We get to open some goodies a few days early here, first with the list of this past year's thread links (left) for a nostalgic walk down Memory Lane while we go over this past market strategies.  Then we can number-plot check out how general markets fared.   Stocks:  Looking over the past year (as of Dec. 19) we're seeing the S&P 500 up 12.0% and the NASDAQ up 14.1% --above average!  OK we've done better but I personally can live w/...

So what did we just see happen in our Republican US House? Did John Boehner just do a head fake or what? His quid pro quo with the Democrats gets him and them amnesty along with a Christmas Wish List for Wall Street. In fact, wasn’t benefiting Wall Street the real lynchpin of the massive Omnibus bill, not executive amnesty? Think about it. Boehner now becomes the Wall-Streeter in Chief, not President Obama, whom the Speaker actually used to pass his legislation! Wasn’t the wished for defeat of executive amnesty just so much political theatre, what with the media screaming...

Crony Capitalism: Sen. Elizabeth Warren delivered a stemwinder speech last Friday on the need for government to rein in Wall Street influence. But it's big government that created the monster in the first place. Warren, D-Mass., was attacking a "dangerous provision" in the so-called cromnibus spending bill that, she said, stripped a part of Dodd-Frank that big banks, particularly Citigroup, don't like. Her speech had the left slobbering over itself. Michael Tomasky, writing for the Daily Beast, said Warren's "weekend heroics" made her the "most powerful Democrat in America." The Huffington Post ran a column calling it "the speech that...

The fact remains that Main Street is in trouble. The nation requires an economy in which new businesses are created and existing ones can afford to expand. That is not happening The U.S. was the world’s number one economy prior to World War II, but it took off bigtime after the war and there has not been a day of my long life in which we were not number one—until now. The International Monetary Fund recently released its calculations regarding the world’s economy and concluded that China is the number one economy, producing $17.6 trillion in terms of goods and...

So while nobody knows the future we still need to know what to expect from the week's two big headlines, even though our view can easily (and will probably) be muddied w/ other factors.  So we deal with an unknown future by checking the historical record for clues on at what the news means to our future investment returns.  What oil bargains do:  namely, what's it doing to the economy and to investments; here's what tanking oil's done in the past (ya gotta LOVE the fed's data site) and how real oil prices (2014$ per barrel) track real GDP-- [click...

Have you heard the story of the first-term senator who is a hero to the party base and the subject of intense 2016 speculation -- the one who's willing to buck leaders on big bills, and has even lobbied House members to stand against a funding measure to keep the government running? It's the story of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.). This week, it's also the story of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). Warren has emerged as the torchbearer of the liberal resistance on Capitol Hill to a $1.01 trillion bill to fund the government, which is facing the threat of a...

Soap box time. Even as we speak the hired help in Washington are working out how to deal with the fact that the current budget continuing resolution expires this Thursday.  We got rumors galore on what they're coming up with but let's face it--  this is just not their strong point.  We're in a situation where the hired help is going to need our intensive supervision.  I know it's a lot of work to keep 'em in line but it's what we do.We can google here to find your congress contact info and I found this site good for senators...

What’s the easiest way to avoid getting sued by the Obama Administration? Well… If you come up with an answer, let the rest of us know. A company that has supported the President and his Affordable Care Act, is currently being sued by Obama for following the law. (Wait… “Affordable” Care Act? Can we sue Democrats for false advertising yet?)Welcome to Obama’s America. Where you can literally get sued for trying to comply with the law. (Boy… That’ll teach you.)Honeywell International Inc., and two smaller firms, are being sued for taking advantage of a specific provision in the ACA that...

President Obama’s nomination of Antonio Weiss to serve as the Treasury Department’s top domestic finance official is drawing fire from an unusual sector: his fellow Democrats. Liberal lawmakers like Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have been quick to oppose Weiss, a major investment banker with Lazard. Among their grievances is the fact that Lazard’s work is primarily in international finance and he is nominated for a domestic position. They’re also critical of his role in structuring several tax inversion deals, which have drawn criticism from the president himself. But an underlying thread to the Democratic opposition is...

  Once again we can say we're looking at a great time for investing!  OK, so it means we wince over last Friday's metals prices, but like who does metals anyway dude, like it's soooo 2013 even.   That and the general feeling we get reading stuff like  Gold mining industry mostly ‘under water’ – Gold Fields CEO (h/t Chgogal). Hey, I'm talking stock market year end "window dressing"† January effect --check out the averages over the past 30 years for the Dow, S&P500, and the NASDAQ, they typically go up 3.4%, 3.6% and 4.8% respectively.  On top of that...

Investment & Finance Thread November Rally Progress Report Great time for investing!   Gold & silver have been recovering for a couple weeks now and a stock index rally is already in it's sixth week.   What's next --can it last?  Pundits (as usual) are covering all sides, so anyone wanting to indulge their confirmation bias need only pick their favorite flavor op-ed: Downside       Upside not de-sided   Falling inflation a worry for Europe but also the world Cramer Remix: Warning about Friday's rally Global Economy Weekahead - Falling inflation a worry for Europe but also the world (h/t Chgogal)...

Investment & Finance Week Ending Nov. 16, 2014 --NOTHING HAPPENED!! Investor's Business Daily said it well with their headline: "Stocks Wrap Up Do-Nothing Week With More Small Gains".  For both S&P and NASDAQ this week's been tepid gains w/ falling volume   Key question is whether we're looking at a top or not, and that's where analysts cite "quite volume" and "the distribution count remains low" (re "How To Tell An Uptrend In Stocks Is All But Over").  On the other hand (as they used to tell Truman) if we look at where we were a couple weeks into the...

In 1950 America’s richest city was Detroit. Now it is nip and tuck with Cleveland as the nation’s poorest city. Today, in order to get into the sixth wealthiest spot on the list, the once wealthy and powerful New York City must be lumped in with Northern New Jersey and Long Island. By comparison Detroit was clearly better off 65 years ago than New York City is today. In 1950 Detroit relied on the auto manufacturing industry to fuel its economy and “See the USA in your Chevrolet” to keep the cars rolling off the assembly line. Sixty five years...

Stock Rally Stalls with Republican Win; Investment & Finance Thread Nov. 9, 2014 Whoa, the past week was decisive in more ways than one! A week ago we took inventory of then-current trends and considered which scenarios would lead where.  All we knew for sure was that either things would stay their courses or we'd change direction.  What happened is we dumped 'business as usual' --as far as trend-lines went-- and we now got signals pointing at "something new".   That 'something new' might even be a basing/stage prep for a continued price surge (Stock Indexes In Pause Mode, But That...