Free Republic

Political polling guru Nate Silver is so confident in his statistical models that he just offered to bet MSNBC's Joe Scarborough $1,000 that Barack Obama will win re-election. Scarborough, you may recall, criticized Silver's math earlier this week, saying that "Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue ... they're jokes." He was specifically talking about Silver's FiveThirtyEight website, which shows Mitt Romney with just a 1-in-4 chance of becoming president. RELATED: FiveThirtyEight Says Obama Is in Command ... For Now Silver has spent the week firing back, criticizing political pundits...

Does anyone believe that when Barack Obama loses on November 6, he will go quietly? This election is shaping up to be a landslide loss for the president, and by the ever-present look of desperation on his face, he knows it. The nation should be preparing for how he might react when it happens -- there is nothing more dangerous than a cornered god. In 2008, Americans wholeheartedly bought the Obama dream. It's never easy to let go of a dream, but today, people have let go of Obama the dream -- and on November 6, they will let go...

Mitt Romney’s lead in national polls — which he’s enjoyed since the first presidential debate — soon should be seen in individual battleground-state polls, strong evidence that Romney will win the Nov. 6 election, Republican strategist Karl Rove said on “Fox News Sunday.” And because the state polls reflect the national mood, Romney may begin to see states such as Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania come into play for his electoral vote count, Rove said. “If the margin is as big nationally as it appears in these national polls, then you will have the state polls follow,” he said. “Now we...

Very early on, before this campaign started in earnest, live or die, I publicly cast my lot with Gallup and Rasmussen. As a poll addict going back to 2000, these are the outlets that have always played it straight. It's got nothing to do with politics and everything to do with credibility and not wanting to kid myself. So when an outlet like Gallup tells me Romney is up seven-points, 52-45%, among those who have already voted, that's very big news.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. These updates are from nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before the prime-time coverage of the Democratic National Convention last night

Just 47% of registered voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll see Obama favorably overall, down 7 percentage points from his recent peak in April, while 49% rate him unfavorably. He’s numerically underwater in this group for the first time since February. The decline has occurred entirely among women registered voters – from 57%-39% favorable-unfavorable in April to a numerically negative 46%-50% now. That’s Obama’s lowest score among women voters – a focus of recent political positioning – in ABC/Post polls since he took office. On top of that, according to CNN’s latest poll, Romney’s lead among independents has...

As per yesterday, Thursday September 6th, Romney has taken the lead in most National Polls and the President is behind. You can follow the line graph on Realclearpolitics.com and see this is the first time in months Romney has lead. This is also the latest in the trend of Mitt Romney making up ground and the president losing voters. I heard it said once to “not look at numbers but look at trends”, going into an election. Romney has been steadily climbing and has passed Barack Obama. As of today the RCP betting line has Obama at 58% to win...

Good news for the GOP heading into their convention: Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has made gains in recent weeks in all 11 competitive swing states. This is based on data from RealClearPolitics, which computes a polling average for both candidates in each state based on recent surveys.

This week, I'm going out on a limb by publicly stating an opinion I have been expressing privately for some time: I believe Mitt Romney will defeat Barack Obama in a near landslide comparable to Ronald Reagan's win over Jimmy Carter in 1980. Many of my friends and family, while hoping I'm right, actually think I'm crazy. My wife fears that there is now a disproportionate number of people in America who have gotten used to the idea of having things handed to them by government, rather than cherishing the opportunity to work for those things themselves. After the Supreme...

Saturday, September 01, 2012 The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 44% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 - 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 - 45 lead. That's a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in almost all of them. Obama's performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing. Romney's favorables are above Obama's now. Yes, you read that right. Romney's favorables are higher than Obama's right now. That gender gap that was Obama's firewall? Over in one night: Currently, women...

As Americans are beginning to process Mitt Romney's lopsided debate victory on Wednesday night, the Republican nominee has pulled ahead in three crucial swing states, according to a trio of surveys from pollster We Ask America:   Ed Morrissey notes the slightly generous (to Republicans) sample splits in Florida and Virginia, although the Ohio partisan breakdown looks about right.  To buttress this data, Rasmussen has released two new surveys -- his data shows Romney ahead by one point in Virginia (49/48), and down by a point in Ohio (50/49).  But consider this item within the Buckeye State poll:   But among the...

After viewing Wednesday's presidential debate, I continue to strongly disagree with the polls and with the conservative crowd who assume that this election is far from over. The election's been over for a while -- only not in favor of the current president, which has been the meme of the mainstream media for months now. Obama is toast, so Mr. Romney, sir, let me be the first to call you, in print, "Mr. President." Remember that when you get my application for a communications job in your administration.

..............Incredible as it may seem to most outside observers, Mitt Romney is actually what currently passes for a moderate in today’s Republican Party..... Romney was sold – in the teeth of opposition from a significant section of the Republican grass roots – as the pragmatic choice, the compromise they had to make with ideology to secure victory. And when he loses, those activists are going to go as vengefully crazy as Cain’s Rhode Island Reds. Anyone who doubts the reaction of the GOP stalwarts to Romney’s impending defeat should bear in mind this single, if chilling, fact. Most of them...

It is very clear that the polls this election year are wildly out of sync. Consider the four polls which were based on several days of surveys ending on September 16. Pew Research had Obama up by 8%, NBC/Wall Street Journal had Obama up by 5%, Monmouth/Survey USA had Obama up by 3%, and Rasmussen had Romney up by 2%. These polls had margins of error which were significantly smaller than the differences between the polls. Some of the polls are bad science or worse. Which polls should be trusted, and which should be treated with great suspicion? Some news...

On the Friday after the Democratic convention, Tom Jensen tried to reach out and touch 10,000 Ohioans. He wanted to ask them, among other questions, whom they planned to vote for in November: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? This sort of thing is easier—and harder—than you might think. As the director of Public Policy Polling, Jensen has at his disposal 1,008 phone lines hooked up to IVR (interactive voice response) software that enables PPP to make 400,000 automated calls a day. All Jensen needs to do is feed the 10,000 phone numbers into a computer, record the series of questions...

It would be an election night to remember for Republicans and conservatives if the Romney/Ryan presidential ticket wins in a landslide, but nothing short of shock and awe for Democrats and their liberal media allies based on the latest polls. Quick to sweep the historic Republican election landslide in 2010 and Scott Walker's big victory in Wisconsin's recall election under the rug, Democrats and the liberal media have been treating Obama's dismal record on the economy and foreign policy the same way they treated those elections - like they never happened. Since those elections, Democrats and the liberal media have...

"President Barack Obama has opened a lead over Mitt Romney in New Hampshire. Independent voters who had been supporting Romney have swung to Obama in recent weeks." ....... "With one month remaining before the November 6 election, Barack Obama has opened up a statistically significant lead over Mitt Romney in the battleground state of New Hampshire. In the most recent Granite State Poll, 52% of likely New Hampshire voters plan to vote for Obama, 37% say they will support Romney, 3% prefer some other candidate, and 9% say they are undecided."

Poll: Americans Say Middle Class Better Off With Obama Than With Romney By David Hill - October 1, 2012 More than half of Americans think the middle class would benefit more from a second term for President Obama than the election of Republican challenger Mitt Romney, according to a poll released Monday. The Gallup poll shows that 53 percent of Americans give Mr. Obama an edge in helping middle-class people, compared with just 43 percent for Mr. Romney. Respondents in the poll also said another Obama term would be better for racial and ethnic minorities, lower-income Americans, women, young adults...

I couldn't believe Rasmussen has Obama 50%, so I took a look back and was astonished to see after everything thats happen the last 4years hes only lost a point. 10/02/2008: McCain – 44%, Obama – 51% 10/01/2008: McCain – 45%, Obama – 51% 09/30/2008: McCain – 45%, Obama – 51% 09/29/2008: McCain – 45%, Obama – 50% 09/28/2008: McCain – 44%, Obama – 50% 09/27/2008: McCain – 44%, Obama – 50%