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A staggering 96% of Americans express deep worry about the current economic landscape, according to a survey by Intuit Credit Karma. The surprising link between low unemployment and imminent recessions is now causing widespread anxiety. While historically, a low unemployment rate signals a robust economy, recent data challenges this notion. Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen highlighted the dichotomy, stating, “You don’t have a recession when you have 500,000 jobs and the lowest unemployment rate in more than 50 years.” However, a closer look at the chart reveals that unemployment often hits a cyclical low just before a recession hits.

During December, I rarely saw a FedEx delivery trick on the roads in my 80,000+ person town, rarely a UPS truck, maybe a few Amazon trucks every once in a while. The real economy seems to be declining fast. From r/Fedexer: We are in a recession. Buckle up. This morning, we were notified by text that the whole morning sort was canceled due to “low volume availability”. It felt so effing good to sleep in, but thats besides the point.

2023 MAJOR ACCOMPLISHMENTS of the Biden-Harris Administration

For the Fed to bring inflation down to 2%, it will take the destruction of a significant amount of wealth – something which an unprecedented pace of aggressive rate hikes has so far failed to do. To the Fed, losing control over price stability is unacceptable (t.me/marketfeed/417246). BlackRock revealed in their 2023 Outlook that “only a deep recession can effectively decouple the global economy from the risks of persistent inflation.” The Fed continues to believe in the Phillips Curve, which plots unemployment as inversely related to inflation.

The Federal Reserve’s recent dovish turn, suggesting a possible recession or political strategy, has added a layer of complexity to the challenges faced by the Biden administration. President Biden, grappling with declining poll numbers and economic uncertainties, relies on the Fed’s decisions to shape the narrative leading up to November’s elections. Amid positive economic indicators, such as low unemployment and robust growth, the unexpected move towards falling rates strategically aims to bolster the administration’s appeal to voters. The potential of seven rate cuts underscores the severity of the looming economic downturn.

A recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report has cast a shadow over the U.S. economic landscape, predicting a rise in unemployment from the current 3.9% to 4.4% by the end of 2024. This sobering forecast suggests potential job losses for approximately 7.4 million Americans, highlighting the precarious nature of the workforce amidst a contracting gross domestic product (GDP). The CBO attributes the anticipated increase in unemployment to economic adjustments and policy shifts. As the nation grapples with these changes, weaker consumer spending is expected into the next year, along with a contraction in nonresidential investment. These factors are projected to...

By Javier Simon Sponsored by Credible - which is majority owned by Fox Corporation. Credible is solely responsible for the services it provides.Although the Great Recession impacted the savings of American workers across generations, it delivered a major hit to the retirement savings of the youngest Baby Boomers, according to a study by the Center for Retirement Research (CRR) at Boston College. Boomers born in the early 1960s at the end of that generational wave had saved an average of about $280,000 for retirement when they reached their 50s. That’s nearly $50,000 less than their older counterparts born in the...

The stock market is currently experiencing its most overbought conditions since the early days of the pandemic, with traders displaying a fervent appetite for bullish options contracts. This surge in bullish sentiment is reminiscent of the situation leading up to the 2008-09 recession, raising concerns among seasoned analysts. A striking comparison can be drawn between the current market state and the situation in December 2021, particularly in the context of "Min vol." Despite a similar move, this time it took half the duration as volatility rapidly collapsed. The prevailing sentiment suggests that, post-options expiration (OpEx), markets are poised to surge...

It has been over three years since the disastrous Covid economic shutdowns of 2020. And here we are again! US investment-grade bond yields have just had the biggest two-day drop since April 2020. And the US Treasury 10Y-2Y curve remains steeply inverted. Help me Jerome!

The Empire (State) Strikes Out! Contraction (or economic slowdown) is hitting New York State! After three strong ‘beats’ in a row, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey crashed back into contraction, well below expectations in December (from +9.1 to -14.5, +2.0 exp). The drop takes the measure from ‘expansion’ at 7-month-highs to ‘contraction’ at 4-month-lows… Source: Bloomberg The new orders fell six points to -11.3, pointing to a decline in orders for a third consecutive month, and the shipments index fell sixteen points to -6.4, indicating that shipments fell. The unfilled orders index held steady at -24.0, a sign that unfilled...

In a surprising move, the Federal Reserve is hinting at multiple rate cuts in 2024, sparking questions about the stability of the financial system. This decision has historical echoes, as every major rate cut since the 1970s has been followed by a substantial 30% drawdown in the S&P 500. For the first time in recent history, Chair Powell’s alignment with market expectations signals a potential departure from the usual cautious stance. The market has responded positively, with the S&P 500 on track for its 9th green day out of the last 10, reflecting investor confidence in the Federal Reserve’s promises.

As inflation continues to take a toll on consumers’ wallets, a surprising sentiment is emerging – more than a third of consumers, including new homeowners, are willing to embrace a recession if it brings down soaring prices. This sentiment is revealed in a recent survey conducted by Morning Consult, shedding light on the frustrations of individuals grappling with the impact of prolonged inflation. With prices on the rise for various goods and services due to inflationary pressures, consumers are becoming increasingly frustrated. The Morning Consult survey indicates that a significant portion, 37%, expressed their willingness to endure a recession if...

Yes, its beginning to look a lot like a recession! After ADP has printed lower than BLS for the last two months… Source: Bloomberg …expectations were for a small tick higher in November (from 113k to +130k), despite the ugly JOLTS print. However, ADP reported just 103k jobs added (and October revised down to 106k)… Source: Bloomberg Manufacturing saw the biggest job losses but Leisure and Hospitality lost jobs for the first time since Feb 2021… ADP’s Chief Economist Nela Richardson notes that: “Restaurants and hotels were the biggest job creators during the post-pandemic recovery. But that boost is behind...

If, and when, a recession ever occurs again in any of our lifetimes - certainly not in the golden age of Bidonomics, pain will be felt disproportionately as usual.Sectors which fare better will typically exhibit;Less cyclical exposureLower rate sensitivityHigher cash levelsLower capital expendituresAs such, Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld takes a look at the sectors most resilient to recession risk and rising costs, using data from Allianz Trade. Recession Risk, by SectorAs slower growth and rising rates put pressure on corporate margins and the cost of capital, we can see in the table below that this has impacted some sectors more...

The US housing and mortgage markets are thunderstruck by The Fed’s attempts are cooling inflation down to 2%. After a small bounce last month – following the puke in August – pending home sales dropped 1.5% MoM in October (better than the 2.0% MoM decline expected). This left YoY sales down 6.6% (negative for the 23rd straight month)… The Pending Home Sales Index dropped back to a new record low… By region, only the Northeast saw an increase in pending sales last month. Sales fell the most in the West, down 6%, while contract signings in the South and Midwest...

During an interview with NBC News on Wednesday, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) argued that if the Build Back Better legislation President Joe Biden and Senate Democrats pushed had passed the way it was “it would have basically thrown us into a recession, if not a deep depression.” “Meet the Press” host Kristen Welker asked, “Let’s talk about some of the legislation that you and the President and the Congress passed. The Inflation Reduction Act, the bipartisan infrastructure law, CHIPS, the gun safety law, do you feel…like you have a role in helping the President talk about some of this bipartisan...

The household survey shows employment collapsed by 348K, the biggest drop since the Covid shutdown. As usual, historical data was revised massively lower, with the jobs change for August revised down by 62,000, from +227,000 to +165,000, and the change for September was revised down by 39,000, from +336,000 to +297,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 101,000 lower than previously reported. In total, 8 of the past 8 months have been revised sharply lower in what only idiots can not see is clearly mandated political propaganda designed to make the economy look stronger at first...

JOHNSTOWN, Pennsylvania — Two months ago, 30,000 truckers at Yellow lost their jobs when one of the nation’s oldest and largest trucking companies filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Last week, Convoy, the digital freight broker that was supposed to reinvent the wheel and disrupt the trucking industry in a positive way, also abruptly shuttered its doors. These kinds of closings by both freight carriers lay bare the uncertain state of trucking, an industry that is an indicator of the mood of the consumer and also the beating heart of our economy. “In my opinion, this industry is heading in...

Biden’s Highway to Hell! Bidenomics has been a massive windfall for the top 1% of households in terms of wealth due to the emphasis on green energy transformation. But for the 99%, Bidenomics has been a disaster (unless you consider low-paying job creation a victory). The auto sector, considered a leading economic indicator, pinpoints the arrival of the crushing auto loan crisis and even the possibility of the onset of the next recession. In late January, we Fitch revealed tat consumers are falling behind on auto payments – the most since the peak of the Great Financial Crisis. Fast forward...

*The US economy is lurching toward a recession, according to Jeff Gundlach. *The DoubleLine Capital chief pointed to a "de-inverted" bond-yield curve and the rising unemployment rate as signs of a looming slump. *Layoffs are coming," he warned. The US economy is clearly headed toward a recession, veteran bond investor Jeff Gundlach has warned. The DoubleLine Capital CEO said Wednesday that the yield curve – a bond-market gauge that measures the gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields – is signaling that a downturn is coming. "The shape of the yield curve is extremely unstable at this time," Gundlach told...