Free Republic

GOP front-runner Donald Trump is leading Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in California, a new poll shows, one of the final primary contests before the Republicans head to the party's convention in July. Trump is the pick of 39% likely Republican voters, while Cruz has the support of 32%, according to a poll from the Field Research Corporation in California. John Kasich is in third place at 18%, while 11% are undecided. Cracks in GOP rank-and-file also are reflected in the poll, as nearly 4 in 10 California Republicans (38%) say they would be "dissatisfied" or "upset" if Trump became their...

Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz are almost tied for the Republican nomination, according to CNN's Political Prediction Market. The billionaire businessman's odds for the nomination are at 47% while Cruz's odds are at 46%. Ohio Gov. John Kasich's odds for the nomination are at 4%. The Political Prediction Market is an online game that is administered by a company called Pivit. It functions like an online market and allows Internet users to predict the outcome of the 2016 election....

In order to get to 1,237 delegates before the convention, Donald Trump needs to sweep both New York and California primaries. That may not be much of a problem in New York, as Trump dominates the field in the RCP average by 32 points, and gets the majority he needs for a winner-take-all haul of the statewide delegates in all four recent polls. With that kind of lead, it’s difficult to imagine Trump losing any of the delegates from Congressional districts in New York, so he should get all 95 delegates. California, however, looks like a much different story. It...

For the first time in the Republican primary, Reuters’ tracking poll shows Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) leading Donald Trump among likely voters in the Republican primaries. This is also the first time Donald Trump hasn’t led the tracking poll in 2016. Cruz has the support of 39 percent of likely Republican voters nationwide, just ahead of Donald Trump, who has 37 percent support. Ohio Governor John Kasich is a distant third, with 23 percent support. In the broader survey of all Republicans, rather than likely voters, Trump still has a four-point lead. This, however, is sharply down from the...

With a varied cast of characters pursuing each party’s nomination for president, the subject of electability — the idea that some candidates are inherently better or worse general election candidates than others — keeps coming up. It’s come up in reference to Bernie Sanders, a Vermont socialist in a party that has seen multiple northern liberals lose the presidency. It’s come up in reference to Hillary Clinton, who would be the first woman to top a major party ticket and whose political career has been dogged by scandals. And electability questions have been raised perhaps most often on the Republican...

Republicans are expected to win the White House under two economic models that have accurately forecast presidential elections for decades. A third model run by Moody’s Analytics predicts Democrats will win the White House, in part because of President Obama’s rising approval rating. The three models are being challenged like never before by the presence of GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump, whose campaign has shaken up politics. Trump’s fights with Ted Cruz and his other GOP rivals have electrified his supporters but have turned off other voters. A Washington Post-ABC poll last week found that 67 percent of registered voters...

BOSTON, MA – Bernie Sanders is now 8 points ahead of Hillary Clinton, (51% to 43) in the Badger State, where two weeks ago he was six points down (50%-44%) to the former Secretary of State. In the GOP race, Cruz is now five points ahead of Donald Trump (40% to 35%) with John Kasich at 21%. Two weeks ago, Cruz had a 1 point lead over Trump (36%-35%). If Cruz is the primary winner, he will win 15 delegates, Cruz is also ahead in five of the eight congressional districts where three delegates will be awarded to the winner...

If you had to vote in your state primary/caucus today, knowing what you know now about the various declared and probable candidates, who would you vote for? Why? Who would you like to see as the running mate for your preferred candidate? If you could help staff your candidates cabinet and other top appointments, who would you choose? If you could recommend different congressional leaders than we have now, who would they be? And who would you like to see on the Supreme Court and why? And finally, feel free to donate to Free Republic.

LOS ANGELES (KABC) -- An exclusive Eyewitness News poll conducted by SurveyUSA shows that in California, 50 percent of registered voters have an "extremely negative" view of Donald Trump, but he still leads narrowly among likely Republican primary voters. The poll, released on Monday, showed that 15 percent of Republicans likely to vote in the state's Republican primary also have a negative view of Trump. Yet, Trump polls at 40 percent, Ted Cruz at 32 percent and John Kasich at 17 percent. And despite Trump's remarks about women and his staff's treatment of women, he still leads among female voters....

Last week was the pivotal week in the American election race. Not because of seven crazy days of Donald Trump's shenanigans – his continuing ugly row with Ted Cruz about their wives, the arrest of his campaign manage over an alleged assault, his refusal to back the eventual Republican nominee, and his extraordinary proposal that women who have illegal abortions should be punished (followed by a hasty, but unconvincing, u-turn). In fact you probably missed the crucial signals hidden amid all that Republican noise. Last week two pieces of data emerged which give us the clearest possible idea about where...

MILWAUKEE- Another collegiate poll shows Ted Cruz holds an advantage over Donald Trump heading into Tuesday’s Wisconsin Primary election. The poll, conducted by Loras College in Dubuque Iowa, shows Cruz holding a 38% to 31% over Donald Trump in the GOP Primary race. 18% of people polled said they would vote for John Kasich and 13% said they were still undecided. Poll author Dr. Christopher Budzisz says they surveyed 1,000 registered voters across the state, including 832 likely primary voters. It is the first time Loras College has polled Wisconsin voters. On the Democratic side, 47% of surveyed voters said...

Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz appear poised for victory in Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary, but Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are still in good shape nationally. That’s the finding from Public Policy Polling‘s latest survey, released on March 31. In Wisconsin, Sanders leads Clinton 49-43 in the Democratic primary; on the GOP side, Cruz has a narrow 38-37 lead over Trump, with John Kasich a distant third at 17 percent. See the Wisconsin numbers here. PPP director Tom Jensen says the Republican numbers are a little deceiving, though. He says about a third of Kasich supporters say they may change their...

It was conceivable to see a realistic path for Trump not just to the Republican nomination but to the White House, but that situation is no longer operative. Donald Trump has not had two weeks this bad since he got into the presidential stakes. His general election polling numbers tell the story: on January 31st, just two months ago, his RealClearPolitics polling average put Trump in a statistical dead heat with Hillary Clinton, trailing her 44-41 percent. It was conceivable at that moment to see a realistic path for Trump not just to the Republican nomination but to the White...

The April 5 Republican primary in Wisconsin is looking less like a toss-up between Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz and more like a probable win for Cruz. This would be a fairly grave problem for Trump in his effort to reach 1,237 delegates ahead of the convention. Further, a new Wisconsin poll from a well-respected outfit shows horrific favorability ratings for Trump in the state among all voters, mirroring his recent national downturn. If he can’t reach enough delegates ahead of the convention, and his support shows signs of erosion in the final contests—all while his overall favorability rating...

"No matter what he does, Trump always goes up in the polls!" That's the line Trump followers routinely employ when their man dives face-first into the latest unseemly controversy du jour -- including, most recently, spreading conspiracy theories to justify attacking and threatening Ted Cruz's wife. The reality is that while Trump's boorish showmanship doesn't harm his standing among a certain percentage of the GOP primary electorate, it most certainly hurts him among voters generally. The brash billionaire's overall unfavorable ratings have swelled to the mid-60's, spiking into the stratosphere among women. And now we have a fresh data point...

Donald Trump is most likely to win the GOP nomination. But Ted Cruz definitely has a path to victory if he can win key contests. Trump's current delegate lead over Cruz and John Kasich (Trump — 739, Cruz — 465, Kasich — 143) is more apparent than real. At some point, Marco Rubio is likely to endorse Cruz and release his delegates. Since the Rubio campaign was conceived in the womb of the establishment's anti-Trump initiative, his delegates are likely to go to the Texan en masse, giving Cruz 631 delegates, only 108 behind Trump. If Cruz wins Wisconsin, he...

As he inches toward the GOP nomination, Donald Trump is becoming more and more disliked among American voters. Donald Trump wasn't wildly popular to begin with. And now he's becoming even more disliked among American voters, creating a significant threat to his chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination. Trump is, by far, the GOP delegate leader — and the only candidate with a realistic shot at winning a majority of delegates before the July convention. But at the same time, nearly two-thirds of Americans view Trump unfavorably — and his image rating has declined since Republican voting began in...

The Morning Consult tracking poll surveyed 2,071 registered voters between March 24 and 26, for a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. (Title comes from: The Conservative Tree House)

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in California, according to a USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times statewide poll released Sunday. The results show Trump polling at 37 percent, with Cruz following at 30 percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich in third at 12 percent with all voters in the state. The race was closer among likely voters, with 36 percent saying they would vote for Trump compared to Cruz’s 35 percent. Kasich trailed behind with just 14 percent of the vote....

After nearly eight years of Obama they may be ready to try something new How millennials have gone left during the past decade Millennials, that perplexing generation between the ages of 18 and 30, have famously gone for leftist presidential candidates in recent elections. They famously went for Barack Obama in 2008, caught up in the hope and change fever. Four years later, millennials choose Obama again over Mitt Romney by large margins. In the current election cycle, the younger generation has tended to support Bernie Sanders, the elderly senator from Vermont and avowed socialist. Millennials are turning to Ted...