Free Republic

A new poll has found that Democrats and Republicans are neck and neck in the upcoming midterm elections, with Democrats citing gun violence as their number one concern even as the economy continues to tumble. The Sienna College Research Institute poll, conducted on behalf of the New York Times between July 5 and 7 among 849 registered voters, found the race to control Congress is tight, with voters preferring Democrats to Republicans by just one percentage point, 41%-40%. Nineteen percent of respondents remain undecided. However, among likely voters, the Times noted that 44% favored Republicans while 43% expressed support for...

By now, except in the Hillary Clinton propaganda mills, it is pretty well established that Donald Trump is going to get at least 20% of the Black vote and Clinton cannot break 75% with African Americans. This is a full 15 points below the bare minimum she needs to have a chance to win in November. Nevertheless, the crafty Goebbelsesque media presents this and other “horse races” within this election as one requiring Trump to get 51% or be defeated. This same twisting of the truth would produce a headline saying “Trump down in 8 of 9 important states,” which...

When the horserace is expanded to four candidates — including Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party's Jill Stein — Clinton gets support from 39 percent of voters, Trump gets 38 percent, Johnson 10 percent and Stein 6 percent.

This is my first vanity piece, so let me know if I did something wrong. Republicans seem to think they will sweep the upcoming elections. I disagree. I tend to think any Republican candidate that does not have a MINIMUM 5 point lead on their Democratic challenger by Tuesday, will lose. I say this because Democrats have this huge apparatus in place to facilitate voter fraud, intimidation and outright manipulation and Republicans need an average 5 points and that is a conservative estimate, (probably needs to be higher) to help overcome these deficiencies. If you don't believe me, just look...

Yesterday, President Bush was more popular than he's been all year. The president's lagging poll numbers got a swift boost in overnight tracking surveys from Thursday's news that United States warplanes had killed Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the most wanted terrorist in Iraq.Polling done on Thursday night for the IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index gave George W. Bush a 44.2 rating, up from 39.1 on the first of June and 38.9 in May. The last time the index reached this level was in December 2005, when it hit 44.3 The complete June index with be released on Tuesday. Raghavan Mayur, president of...

Polls for Pols. All we hear day after day, almost minute-by-minute are polls, polls, polls! Exactly what good are they? If you, like me, have had the masochism to take graduate-level statistics, then you know just how much nonsense is spewing from pollsters these days. Classic example -- "Statistical Dead Heat" If Dubya is up 3 point on Kerry and the "margin of error" is plus or minus four points, the media claims it is a "Statistical Dead Heat". Is that true? Well, no! Here's why. All of these "margin of error" numbers derive from probability laws of mathematics. The...

FINAL ZOGBY NUMBERS (two sets of figures, first is factoring in leaners and eliminating undecideds 'special sauce', second set is raw data)SD SENATE THUNE (R) OVER JOHNSON (D) 52-47 (48-44)TEXAS SENATE CORNYN (R) OVER KIRK (D) 50-46 (46-42)NC SENATE DOLE (R) OVER BOWLES (D) 53-43 (46-39)MN SENATE MONDALE (R) OVER COLEMAN (D) 51-45 (49-44) GA SENATE CLELAND (D) OVER CHAMBLISS (R) 50-48 (46-44)CO SENATE STRICKLAND (D) OVER ALLARD (R) 51-46 (49-44) AR SENATE PRYOR (D) OVER HUTCHINSON (R) 56-43 (50-41)