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Trump, Clinton in statistical tie (NBC/WSJ poll)
NBC News ^ | June 25, 2016 | Mark Murray

Posted on 06/27/2016 10:11:39 AM PDT by Javeth

When the horserace is expanded to four candidates — including Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party's Jill Stein — Clinton gets support from 39 percent of voters, Trump gets 38 percent, Johnson 10 percent and Stein 6 percent.

(Excerpt) Read more at nbcnews.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; 2016swingstates; marginoferror; paulryan; poll; rinos
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There's been a lot of fretting and hand-wringing about recent polls, but the reality right now-- even as stated by the very anti-Trump MSM, when they get past their own headlines-- is that Trump and Clinton are in a statistical tie across several major polls. While I despise the MSM's obvious biases, we can't ignore their polls entirely-- all the attempts at unskewing and recasting data didn't help in 2012-- but we don't have to, the MSM itself is sweating under the collar because their own polls, besides varying wildly from each other, show a statistical dead heat between the two major-party candidates especially when the party ID is adjusted to reflect the population and likely voter models are used. And this is despite all the backstabbing from RINO's like Paul Ryan, John McCain, Jeff Flake, Lindsey Graham, Kelly Ayotte, Orrin Hatch and Nikki Haley, not to mention Trump's rough couple weeks and difficulties raising campaign funds. I work in places with a number of Democrats both when I'm in the US and in Europe (Democrats abroad) and they talk a lot about the 2016 race, and they're nervous, very unlike what I recall from 2012-- they've seen the latest polls and Hillary's fumbles, and they're genuinely anxious because they know it's gonna be a photo-finish in November.

The simple fact is that we can't get discouraged or complacent, we need every vote and volunteer to get out the vote in November with the way the demographics are working against us. I used to do Census Bureau work while I was getting started in the import-export biz and still periodically review the updated databases, and the danger to the conservative movement is alarming. Even before we get into all the amnesties for illegals, Obama and Hillary (and foolishly, even George W. Bush when he was in office) have been using the poorly controlled legal immigration channels to flood the country with about a million new overwhelmingly Democratic voters each year, and while most of them actually return home (especially those from Asia and Europe with the economic growth there), that's still hundreds of thousands of new Dem voters each year that Obama and Hillary promise freebies to and rush to register as Dems. Especially all those hundreds of thousands of Muslim "refugees" that Obama's constantly bringing in, along with the "multi-country visa" that's been going for 2 decades (started by Charles Schumer in the early 90's), give the Democrats an ever growing voter advantage every year. That's also the reason Obama keeps dumping them in small towns in Red States, to turn them more and more Blue each year. It's an evilly ingenious plan when you think about it, the Dems basically importing millions of newly minted Democrat voters between elections and then using our hard-earned tax dollars to provide them with welfare freebies while denying any welfare to taxpaying Americans (even veterans who bled for the country), which makes it much harder for us to support our own families. And between now and Election Day 2016, the Dems will be registering potentially hundreds of thousands of new Democratic voters.

So we need every single vote we can get in November, without fail. This truly is probably our very last chance to get a conservative in the White House who'll stop the bleeding and protect our Constitutional rights, because by 2020 the demographics will likely have changed so much that the White House will be totally out of conservative reach, sticking the country with an incompetent, Constitution-shredding uniparty just like in Venezuela, with them edging closer to their big prize of de facto repealing the 2nd Amendment and coming to disarm us. Only Congressional checks and balances would be left to check runaway Democrats in the White House as the American demographics change further and further each year until... whatever that all leads to. So we need to volunteer like the country depends on our victory now, because it really does. RINO's like McCain, Susan Collins, Susana Martinez, LAmar Alexander, Bob Corker, Bob Hoeven and Roger Wicker are probably beyond hope, they care more about their bribery money from the cheap labor lobby than supporting conservatives. But there are many other Republicans who are conservative but on the fence, and this would be a good time to mend fences and make alliances. It's notable that even with the ongoing challenges to Trump's campaign (especially his difficulties in raising campaign funds), he's still tied with Hillary. It's a reflection of how incredibly unpopular Hillary is and how high the unfavorables are for both major-party candidates, and while this may not be a ringing endorsement for Trump, it gives him a lot of breathing room. And all this is before we take into account the formal recession that's probably already on it's way. Work and volunteer like you've never done before, like the country's very survival depends on it because this time, without any bit of exaggerating, it really does.

1 posted on 06/27/2016 10:11:39 AM PDT by Javeth
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To: Javeth

But wait, the Washington Post said Clinton was up over trump by 19,000% just yesterday.

What gives, was it rigged?


2 posted on 06/27/2016 10:14:32 AM PDT by cyclotic
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To: Javeth

but does anyone get to 270?


3 posted on 06/27/2016 10:15:24 AM PDT by JohnBrowdie (http://forum.stink-eye.net)
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To: Javeth

So Johnson and Stein are pulling votes away from Hillary??


4 posted on 06/27/2016 10:15:47 AM PDT by ObozoMustGo2012 (q15.)
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To: Javeth

A dead heat between a household word endorsed by the incumbent and a political newcomer - at this point, that is very bad news for the household word.


5 posted on 06/27/2016 10:17:51 AM PDT by Genoa
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To: Javeth

The press keeps saying GOPe is in a dead panic because Trump is losing by a landslide. So they are going to have to do something to force him out of the race.

Its partly true. GOPe *is* in a dead panic.


6 posted on 06/27/2016 10:18:12 AM PDT by marron
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To: ObozoMustGo2012

Mark my words nearly all those Johnson and Stein voters will eventually vote for Trump.

They just need a safe place to park until Trump reassures them that he isn’t the monster the media is trying to make him out to be.


7 posted on 06/27/2016 10:18:24 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (You can't spell Hillary without using the letters L, I, A, R)
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To: Javeth

Will be interesting to look at the polls after both conventions are over with. NR had a negative piece on Trump showing him averaging about 6 to 7 % behind Clinton and not doing very good in the swing states.


8 posted on 06/27/2016 10:18:52 AM PDT by wild74
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To: Javeth

And just to clarify, while there are some Republicans that fences can be mended with, the backstabbers like Paul Ryan, John McCain, basically all neocons, Kelly Ayotte, Lindsey Graham, Jeff Flake, Marco Rubio and Roger Wicker deserve no such courtesy. There’s nothing but shills for cheap labor and are the traitors within. They truly do need to be fought, and aggressively primaried.


9 posted on 06/27/2016 10:19:12 AM PDT by Javeth
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To: Javeth

Jill Stein, 6%... who would have thought?

She’s the Bernie/Hillary safety valve for whom left isn’t far enough.


10 posted on 06/27/2016 10:19:18 AM PDT by Pearls Before Swine
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To: Javeth

There’s been a lot of fretting and hand-wringing about recent polls


More like bedwetting. Powerful forces are conspiring to depress support for Trump. Don’t believe the psywar hype campaign against Trump and keep all focus on Hillary Rotten Criminal.


11 posted on 06/27/2016 10:21:00 AM PDT by lodi90 (Clear choice for Conservatives now: TRUMP or lose)
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To: Javeth

Regales, we also need to look at demographics and 2020. Many European ethnic groups started as Democrats and within a couple of generations swung right. We need to look at the future generations of non Eiurpean immigrants and have our message appeal to them. Prosperity for all works in our favor, as well. This is why the other party seeks to slow growth


12 posted on 06/27/2016 10:26:01 AM PDT by Homer1
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To: Javeth

Johnson and Stein are not going to get anywhere near 10% and 6% on Election Day.


13 posted on 06/27/2016 10:26:04 AM PDT by Trump20162020
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To: wild74

And after the conventions we will know who the running mates are. They could make a difference in people’s votes.


14 posted on 06/27/2016 10:26:57 AM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: Javeth

Another B.S. Wall Street Journal poll.

Remember right before the South Carolina Republican Primaries, 2 days before, they said Cruz would win by 14 points? Well we all know how that turned out.


15 posted on 06/27/2016 10:29:17 AM PDT by Enlightened1
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To: Javeth

The ground game really will be critical this year. With the Democrats marching so many of their newly naturalized and minted Dems to the polls, our turnout is the key to victory. No expense should be spared here.


16 posted on 06/27/2016 10:29:32 AM PDT by Javeth
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Are they in a tie before or after accounting for the 10% fraud vote?


17 posted on 06/27/2016 10:30:10 AM PDT by dsrtsage (One half of all people have below average IQ. In the US the number is 54%)
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To: TexasFreeper2009
Mark my words nearly all those Johnson and Stein voters will eventually vote for Trump.

I'm guessing most of them don't vote but in terms of policy, they are much closer to Hillary than to Trump. If they vote in November, the majority of them will migrate to Hillary. They are her voters to lose and I don't think that she has lost them yet.

I don't believe those numbers for the third-party candidates, though. I bet you'd have to stop 20 people on the street before you could find one person who could even name Johnson or Stein as candidates. There is no way that Johnson is in double digits or Stein at 6%.

18 posted on 06/27/2016 10:36:10 AM PDT by CommerceComet (Hillary: A unique blend of incompetence and corruption.)
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To: ObozoMustGo2012
They are using them to hid momentum from Trump. Collectively, the two will draw less than 1% nationwide. so there's a 15% buffer that can keep the polls a horse race, in order to play to the narrative, and sell more polls.

If the race is "over" now, the the candidates wont but airtime, and it loses revenue to the media. See how the best case scenario is a neck and neck tie right up till the end, so the politicians can raise money from donors and pass it through to the media in the form of ads?

19 posted on 06/27/2016 10:39:17 AM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature (HTTP 500 - Internal Server Error)
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To: cyclotic
"What gives, was it rigged?"

10-12% Democrat oversampling, and "registered voters" not "likely voters.

20 posted on 06/27/2016 10:40:36 AM PDT by cincinnati65
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