Keyword: intrade
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LV paper reporting panic in Reid's camp.
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At the moment, Reid is at 50, Angle at 50.5. She's been inching up slowly on him lately, and has finally gone higher than him.
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Prediction market: The Democrats to control the Senate after 2010 Congressional Elections: Last Price: 49.5 Well, well, well....
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Currently Intrade has it plus 8 in the Senate for the GOP and plus 45 GOP for the House. Looking good, but stay vigilent!
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U.S. regulators seized five more troubled banks on Friday, including three banks owned by Bank of Florida Corp, bringing the tally of banks closed so far this year to 78. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp said Bank of Florida - Southeast; Bank of Florida - Southwest; and Bank of Florida - Tampa Bay had a combined $1.48 billion in assets and 13 branches between them. EverBank of Jacksonville, Florida, has agreed to acquire the banking operations, including a combined $1.32 billion in deposits, the FDIC said. In addition, regulators shut Las Vegas-based Sun West Bank. The bank had $360.7 million...
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Mitt Romney has been the frontrunner for several months but Sarah Palin has been steadily climbing and closing the gap. It is essentially dead even, as of today, but for the first time she has a small lead and it is expected she will pull ahead. Intrade represents a type of stock market which trades in predictions regarding outcomes of future events. If you believe that Sarah Palin will be the Republican nominee in 2012, you can purchase a "contract" for the prevailing price, currently 25.8. Romney is currently 26.0. This price is determined by the contact traders themselves (anyone...
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I always check on Intrade, the online trading market because over the long run it has proven to be very accurate and has much better graphics and more buzz than other online markets for politics. As I write this, Intrade predicts a seven-seat gain for Republicans in the Senate. As for House of Representative races, the stock price for Democrats winning has been declining, while the GOP winning stock has been sharply rising. The overall prediction from Intrade stocks is that the Republicans will gain 35 House seats.
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Intrade has the bill passing at 81%, having spiked up over the past 2 days. Watch the HMO stocks as well. If this passes, they should rally pretty hard, which is ironic because Obama uses them as his villain. UNH, WLP, AET are up about 2% in a down market, which also points to more likely than not this debacle passing. Healthcare stocks up (another $2.5 trillion to spend on healthcare!) and everything else down is a realistic result of this thing passing.
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ll 'Obamacare' health care reform become law in the United States? 'Obamacare' health care reform (see contract rules) to become law before midnight ET 30 Jun 2010
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Chance is down to 53% from 75% earlier today. The CBO was supposed to come out with their estimates right around now. Could this indicate rumors that the CBO numbers don't look good?
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http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/index.jsp?query=Will+%27Obamacare%27+health+care+reform+become+law+in+the+United+States%3F
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'Obamacare' health care reform (see contract rules) to become law before midnight ET 30 Jun 2010 Last Price: 40.0 What does this mean? 40.0 means the market predicts there is a 40.0% chance that this event happens.
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In the wake of Bayh's retirement, the last trades on Intrade for Democrats and Republicans to control the Senate after the 2010 midterms are 64.9 Dems (-12.1), 35.0 Republicans (+14.9). Contracts settle to 100 if the event occurs, so the traded prices are effectively market probabilities in percentage terms. The market for House control is 59.0 Dem, 40.0 Rep. Let's make it happen.
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Freeper gets a fascinating contract listed on Intrade, bets that the experiment will be replicated, and cashes in. In 2008, Dr. Yoshiaki Arata performed a fascinating experiment with Deuterium Gas loaded onto a Palladium matrix, and without any input power, showed that there was some excess heat. Generating excess heat in cold fusion cell wasn't a new development -- scientists had been replicating the Pons-Fleischman effect for 2 decades. What was a new development was how easily replicable this particular experiment was. It seemed to me that this would be the easiest way to replicate anomalous heat production, removing the...
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Brown 62.5 (-14.6), Coakley 36.0 (+11.6)
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https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=693299&z=1263855659786 http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=693300
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Brown @ 71.1 (bid 71.1, ask 74.5) Coakley @ 27.0 (bid 27.5, ask 30.0)
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Brown: 70 (bid 70, ask 74.5) Coakley: 30 (bid 25, ask 32)
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Intrade shows Coakly at 37.0 and Brown at 63.1I hope this calms some nerves this morning!Up to date Intrade numbers on Mass election
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