Free Republic

Whether you think there has been a housing “recovery” or not is a matter of perspective. Sales are indeed up 117% since the 2010 low, but that low was literally the worst level in the history of this data (since 1963) as a percentage of population growth. It was the Great Depression of Housing, the only possible result of the greatest housing bubble since the 1920s, if not in history. While sales have rebounded since that low, the current sales rate has barely recovered to the levels seen at the recession lows of 1991 and 1982. This rebound is little...

The last time JPMorgan had an investor day, Jamie Dimon explained to Mike Mayo why he is richer than him (and pretty much anyone else). This year, Jamie will be more focused on explaining to 8,000 JPM workers why after firing 16,500 people in consumer and mortgage banking, the bank will now let go another 2K and 6K in those same two groups (which will bring total mortgage and consumer banking headcount reductions between 2013 and 2014 to at least 17K and 7.5K, respectively). This may be tricky especially in the context of, you know, the housing and economic...

There was an interesting post by Warren Hatch (chief investment strategist at Catalpa Capital Advisor) entitled “Why The Housing Recovery Could Happen Faster Than Anyone Expects.” He argues that the U.S. housing market is “shovel ready.” Where have I heard that before? Oh, now I remember. President Obama touted “shovel ready” projects in his pleading for the $800 million stimulus package. The basis of his argument is that the NAHB/Wells Fargo homebuilder confidence index is rising. And he argues that this index has a strong correlation with housing starts of 0.7. Here is his chart: Is this a compelling argument?...

The housing market is a mess. Prices might look cheap, but probably aren't finished falling. They've basically fallen back to historic averages. The washing out process that happens after bubbles burst usually takes assets far below average. Euphoria doesn't just end. It turns to hatred. Fool me once ... you know.Still, housing is going to recover. It might be years from now, but it's going to happen. You can guarantee it. Those are strong words, but the force that will drive recovery is even stronger.A driver behind the housing bubble was that we built too many homes. For most of...