Free Republic

What's a yield curve and why is it so important? Well, the curve itself measures Treasury interest rates, by maturity, from 91-day T-bills all the way out to 30-year bonds. It's the difference between the long rates and the short rates that tells a key story about the future of the economy. When the curve is wide and upward sloping, as it is today, it tells us that the economic future is good. When the curve is upside down, or inverted, with short rates above long rates, it tells us that something is amiss -- such as a credit crunch...

California's population growth slowed over the past year as tens of thousands of residents moved away - many of them heading to other Western states, according to the state Department of Finance. The Golden State's population grew by 353,000 to 38.4 million from July 2008 to July 2009. The only years with lower growth rates since 1900 were 1994-96, according to a report released by the department Thursday. More people left the state for other parts of the country than moved here, a difference of about 142,000 people. While that number is outweighed by people moving from other countries to...

<p>In the popular view, the economy is not in recovery until the unemployment rate, the most political of lagging indicators, begins to decline. Finally now it has, slipping from 10.2 to 10 percent in November. US output has already been on the rise since the spring, in the face of sagging employment. Increases in productivity are offsetting diminishing man-hours of input. Conclusive signs of a turning point have yet to shake most commentators out of their gloom, and the vigor of the recovery continues to be questioned. All too typically, it's input (i.e. employment) rather than output that receives attention from politicians or ink from journalists.</p>

Negative Data For Global Growth By Chris Gaffney 12/09/09 St. Louis, Missouri – The dollar continued to gain strength throughout Tuesday, but gave back some of these gains overnight. The big story yesterday was the downgrade of Greece’s debt rating by Fitch Ratings, and warnings of possible rating downgrades for the US and UK. The sell off in oil has also weighed on some of the commodity-based currencies, but I’ll start today’s Pfennig with some data releases. Japan’s economy expanded less than a third of the pace initially reported as companies slashed spending. GDP rose an annualized 1.3% in the...

India economy grows 7.9%, shatters forecasts By Penny MacRae (AFP) – 5 hours ago NEW DELHI — India reported its best growth figures in 18 months on Monday as government spending and record low interest rates helped Asia's third-largest economy rebound from the global financial crisis. The 7.9-percent expansion in the quarter to September from a year earlier far eclipsed market forecasts and prompted the government to raise its growth expectations for the financial year to March 2010. The growth figures, which underscored Asia's role in spearheading the global recovery, also stoked speculation about when India would begin exiting stimulus...

The road north across the Golden Gate leads to some of the prettiest counties in North America. Yet behind the lovely rolling hills, wineries, ranches and picturesque once-rural towns lies a demographic time bomb that neither political party is ready to address. Paradise is having a problem with the evolving economy. A generational conflict is brewing, pitting the interests and predilections of well-heeled boomers against a growing, predominately Latino working class. And neither the emerging "progressive" politics nor laissez-faire conservatism is offering much in the way of a solution. These northern California counties--which include Sonoma, Napa, Solano and Marin--have become...

Excerpt:Master the soft sell. Intoxicating as rapid growth is, don't let the urge to sell to everyone, everywhere, every time get the best of you. Stan Steinreich, founder of Steinreich Communications, says 90% of his company's $10 million in revenue comes through networking and word of mouth--but that doesn't mean barging into a room and shaking as many hands as possible. "The over-aggressive guys are quickly labeled as creepy," says Steinreich. The best strategy: Let prospects do the most of the talking, and sprinkle in bits of relevant advice every so often. If they liked what you had to say,...

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. has a problem. The world's biggest retailer tips the scales at just over $400 billion (U.S.) in annual sales. It is a perpetual growth machine. But it doesn't have a stock valuation to match. At Wal-Mart, repeatedly held out as a winner in this recession as consumers traded down, sales will barely budge in the current fiscal year, ending Jan. 31. Despite the bargain hunters and the demise of weaker rivals, Wal-Mart revenues will edge up just 1 per cent in fiscal 2010. Wall Street fell out of love with "The Beast of Bentonville" (for its Arkansas...

Is economic growth the highest priority in Obama's Washington? That's not a trivial question: in 1972, the Club of Rome, a global think tank whose current members include Mikhail Gorbachev, issued a report entitled The Limits to Growth, challenging the primacy of wealth creation. In arguments later taken up by President Jimmy Carter, the book's sub-text is that unbridled growth leads to population expansion, but also pollution, resource depletion, famine, and capitalist exploitation...

China’s Growth Picks Up Speed but Raises Concerns By ANDREW JACOBS and BETTINA WASSENER BEIJING — The Chinese economy, already one of the fastest-growing in the world, picked up more speed during the third quarter, adding fuel to a debate over whether, and when, the Chinese authorities might start reining in stimulus measures. Prompted by vastly increased bank lending, generous government support for exports and a $585 billion stimulus package that is spurring a dizzying array of building projects, the Chinese economy grew 8.9 percent from July to September, up from the year-ago period, according to government figures released Thursday....

On Oct. 22, Beijing announced that gross domestic product grew by 8.9% in the third quarter of 2009 compared with the corresponding period last year. The National Bureau of Statistics also reported that growth for the first three quarters was up 7.7%. The 8.9% figure confirmed the economy's upward trend. Growth, according to official statistics, tumbled to 6.1% in the first quarter, well off the double-digit figures seen in 2007 and the first half of last year. The economy picked up during this year's second quarter, when it expanded 7.9%. Now it is clear that China will attain for 2009...

Unintended Consequences By Ian Mathias 10/22/09 Baltimore, Maryland – Follow this one… how the recent rise in retail sales might bust the housing “recovery”: “Retail sales growth is understandably proving meager and hard to regenerate,” writes our macro sage Rob Parenteau, “in a nation where private debt deleveraging is under way and net job generation has yet to return. The early read on consumer expectations for October shows a seven-point drop, which is very indicative of the hesitancy that we suspect will characterize the tentative return to higher spending by U.S. households. Too many rugs have been ripped out from...

Few things cause the eye to glaze over more than economic statistics, particularly when discussing all but incomprehensible sums in the billions and trillions of dollars. There are two statistics which the public should be aware of more than others; they are 1) Gross Domestic Product (total economic output of the country); and 2) The Net Gross Domestic Product per Person (The GDP less the amount of government spending at all levels divided by the total population). The Net GDP per person recognizes the impact of federal, state and local spending on the economy. Ideally the net amount each citizen...

Recovery To Be Moderate, Not V-Shaped: KohnOct. 13, 2009, 2:34 p.m. EDT Greg Robb, MarketWatch WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The economy recovery will be moderate and not a quick snap-back commonly referred to as a V-shaped growth path, said Donald Kohn, the vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday. "All told, I expect that the recovery in U.S. economic activity will proceed at a moderate pace in the second half of this year before strengthening some in 2010," Kohn said in a speech to the National Association of Business Economics meeting in St. Louis. Difficult labor market conditions are a...

Introduction Over the past decade and a half, Americans have been presented with two radically different visions of the role of government. The first vision, articulated and implemented by President Reagan in the 1980s, declares that government taxation and burdensome regulations are harmful to the natural market forces that generate economic growth. Since economic growth is the only way to truly create jobs and raise incomes, policies that reduce taxes and government intervention are the keys to higher living standards for all Americans. President Clinton espouses the second vision, which maintains that the expansion of government does not have harmful...

Apple's September quarter Mac sales are ahead of consensus after July and August, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster says in a note today, based on analysis of NPD Group stats. Meanwhile, iPod sales are trending below estimates, but international growth and new iPod models will help. Munster says NPD data from July and August show Mac sales up 7% year-over-year through August, while the Street is expecting 5% year-over-year growth for the quarter. Back-to-school sales in the first two months of the quarter probably helped, but at least Apple could handle some deceleration this month and still meet expectations. (And...

From its headquarters in a modest office park outside Sunnyvale, Calif., Bridgelux is hoping to spark a revolution in light fixtures for homes and offices across the U.S. It's ready to ramp up production of tiny light-emitting chips that blaze as bright as some incandescent bulbs but consume a fraction of the energy. To meet surging orders for its chips, it's prepared to spend $250 million over three years on gleaming cleanrooms. The question is, where should it put its plants?

India has announced measures to help its exporters, as it warned that the rate of growth of the country's exports would continue to slow. Commerce Minister Anand Sharma said the government expected growth to slow from 25% in the year to 31 March 2009 to 15% for the year ending March 2011. To help exporters, the government will introduce tax breaks, and waive some import duties on capital goods. The rate of India's export growth has slowed for 10 straight months. "This year we are witnessing one of the most severe global recessions in the post-war period," he said. "Fortunately...

Think about it. Chinese banks are lending three times as much during the most severe world economic downturn since the depression as they did when the Chinese economy was booming last year. A tripling of lending would inevitably lead to the financing of numerous negative net present value projects even in normal times. In current circumstances, the waste of resources must be astounding. As I’ve written before, massive government stimulus like that being undertaken in China and being funneled through the banks can lead to increases in measured output. But the return on the projects funded is usually negative, and...

Yet, we are supposed to believe Obama's projections for the cost and benefits of Health Care or Cap and Tax?The bloom is coming off the rose. Obama's poll numbers continue to slide across the board. Rasmussen's approval index has a gap of -8. Only 48% of those asked to rate his handling of the economy in a CBS July 13 poll approved of Obama's handling of the economy. 44% disapproved. Those trends are likely to worsen for Obama as stories like this one in Time Magazine begin to sink in with the average public which pays little attention to the...

WASHINGTON, July 1, 2009 – U.S. forces demonstrated their ongoing commitment to improving security and development throughout Afghanistan in recent days, as several units took on new tasks and a reconstruction team helped to celebrate the opening of a new school. First graders at the newly opened Haish Saidqi Girls' School answer questions about what they want to be when they grow up. The school, funded by Provincial Reconstruction Team Panjshir, opened June 23, 2009, and will serve more than 500 girls, and a few young boys, from nearby villages in the Rokha district of Afghanistan’s Panjshir province. U.S. Air...

Corporate ‘I don’t know’ factor rises By Peggy Hollinger in Paris Published: June 4 2009 02:53 | Last updated: June 4 2009 02:53 Business leaders have lost their sense of direction in the face of the global economic crisis and 40 per cent are unable to pick growth opportunities for their companies, according to a survey of the world’s top corporate decision-makers. “We have never experienced such a big ‘I don’t know’ before,” said Marc Lhermitte, Ernst & Young partner. “These are people who like to have opinions.” The findings, published in E&Y’s European attractiveness survey, reveal the depth of...

Where will the growth come from? Economy may move forward, but only on one cylinder By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy will begin to grow again in the next few months, most economists agree, but it may not feel like much of an improvement to the millions who've lost their jobs, businesses or homes. By almost all accounts, the recovery from the worst recession in several generations will be sluggish for the next year or two or three, with the economy firing on just one cylinder - the Bernanke-Obama stimulus. Even the most optimistic analysts believe...

President Obama's model for spending the nation out of recession is Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal. A better example is the Reaganite bearing of post-communist Poland. In the midst of the global financial crisis, Poland's economy is forecast to grow by almost 1 percent. According to business economists and the Economist magazine, Poland likely will be the only European country with a growing gross domestic product in 2009. Germany's GDP is expected to shrink by more then 5 percent, Britain's by almost 4 percent, France's by 3 percent and the Czech Republic's by 3 percent. With a projected GDP drop...

On April 16, Beijing's National Bureau of Statistics announced that the Chinese economy grew 6.1% in the first quarter of this year. Analysts around the world hailed the number as "encouraging" and said it was a sign that the worst had passed for China. "The recovery has begun," declared Ken Peng of Citigroup. Not so fast, Mr. Peng. In reality, it will take months to determine what really happened during the first three months of this year, but the gross domestic product figure appears much too high when we look at other statistics for the same period. In short, Chinese...

NEW YORK, April 16 (Reuters) - A U.S. Federal bankruptcy judge approved on Thursday a request by mall owner General Growth Properties Inc GGWPQ.PK to use cash collateral to fund business operations during its bankruptcy. U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Allan Gropper, approved the request at the company's first day in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan. Judge Gropper said the company has told him it has $140 million in unencumbered cash in the bank that it wants to use to finance its operations during the bankruptcy, while it waits for approval of a debtor-in-posession (DIP) bankruptcy loan.

A young man from the capital of Russia’s Udmurtian Republic was diagnosed with cancer, and had to undergo an operation which revealed the shocking truth – he had no cancer but… a tree growing in his lung. It sounds like a story from Burger’s Adventures of Baron Munchhausen, when the eccentric Baron shot a cherry stone at a deer and it sprang into a cherry tree on the deer’s head. For 28-year-old Artyom Sidorkin, though, it was no fun at all. As Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper found out, he often had chest pains, and was coughing up blood. An X-Ray...

The second edition of “Rich States, Poor States” has just been released. Surprise! Surprise! Low tax states have the highest growth and high tax states have the lowest growth.

Productivity, which fell in the bad recession of 1981-82 and during the Great Depression, was up 3.2% in the fourth quarter. Incomes, adjusted for the recent deflation in the CPI, are rising. And while the Keynesians among us fret about the paradox of thrift, I find the rising savings rate comforting. Higher savings is exactly what we need to repair the damage done to our economy by excess consumption fueled by easy credit. And besides, retail sales were up in January.

FORWARD OPERATING BASE LOYALTY — During the past year, United States forces have helped to stimulate the Iraqi economy through issuing micro-grants to eastern Baghdad businesses. As of Nov. 16, Company C, 2nd Battalion, 30th Infantry, 4th Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division alone has processed 20 applications and handed out nearly $395,000 in the New Baghdad district, said 1st Lt. Grant White, a Co. C platoon leader. There are at least 25 more applications still going through the investigations process, he explained. “With every micro-grant we are able to complete, you can see a difference. Shop owners walk a...

Let's get to the bottom of what party is better for the economy. In the last 40 years has any economic growth legislation been inspired by Democrats ?

How would your 401(k) perform under a President Obama versus a President McCain? To find out, try the revealing calculator on the website of Americans for Tax Reform. This device considers the value of your investment plan, and then estimates how your money would fare, depending on whether Barack Obama or John McCain wins today’s election. Take, for instance, a 401(k) with a balance of $121,202 balance — equal to the average 401(k) at close-of-business 2006, according to the Employee Benefits Research Institute. Under Obama, such an account would shrink to $114, 293. But under McCain, it would grow to...

The message blasted at us day after day by the Obama campaign and its public relations machine, otherwise known as mainstream media, is that we are in a recession, we have been for essentially the last eight years, and the US is unique in this because of the failed policies of George W. Bush. We are not in recession. The economy of the last eight years has been fine. And we are doing better than our European know-it-alls who favor an Obama victory. At least that's what the most recent economic data show....

KABUL, Afghanistan, Oct. 1, 2008 – A new organization is improving the Afghan National Army’s ability to move capable forces from its training center to the operational commands. U.S. Army Lt. Col. Jesse Edwards, senior mentor and team chief for the Afghan National Army’s Consolidated Fielding Center, stands with ANA leaders during a graduation ceremony at Pol-e-Charki Garrison, Kabul, Afghanistan, Sept. 20, 2008. U.S. Army photo  (Click photo for screen-resolution image);high-resolution image available. The sense of urgency for this new concept has increased following the announcement of plans to grow the Afghan National Army past the initial authorization of 82,000...

Commentary: BRIC is broke, and emerging markets are discouraging By John Prestbo Last update: 7:29 p.m. EDT Sept. 17, 2008 NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Many investors turned to emerging markets last year because those economies kept sizzling even as developed economies began cooling. Some pundits opined that emerging markets were the new global growth engine and that their momentum could save developed economies from sliding into recession. Indeed, that view held up for a while. In 2007, the Dow Jones Wilshire Emerging Markets Index rocketed up 45.4% on a total-return basis, while the DJ Wilshire Developed Markets Index gained 9.5%....

While the Democrats had their week of unchallenged propaganda about their party – how perfect it is and how terrible the Republicans are – the latest good news about the economy and the average adjusted gross income went unnoticed. Once again, when Democrats don’t like the facts, they just ignore them with the help of the mainstream media. On August 26, Investor’s Business Daily reported data from the Internal Revenue Service showing that the average U.S. income had increased every year for five straight years through 2006. In fact, the $58,029 average was $739 higher than the peak year of...

SACRAMENTO – California is on the verge of initiating a historic rewrite of local planning laws, fusing for the first time the issues of urban growth and global warming. Unprecedented nationally, the complex legislation would steer communities toward land-use policies to contain sprawl, using as much as $12 billion a year in state-controlled transportation funds as an incentive. “This bill will change the way California grows,” said state Sen. Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, its author. Under the measure, the state Air Resources Board would establish targets for 17 regions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as part of a broader campaign to...

In its preliminary 2Q08 GDP estimates, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, the countryÂ’s gross domestic product was revised up at an annual rate of 3.3% for the April-June period, exceeding analystsÂ’ initial estimates of a 1.9% increase as well as economistsÂ’ forecast of a 2.7% gain. Constant dollar GDP is now up 2.2% versus a year ago. The acceleration in real GDP growth in 2Q08 reflects a larger decrease in imports of 7.6% compared with a decrease of 0.8% in the 1Q08, and an acceleration in exports of 13.2% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 5.1%...

Foxnews Alert! McCain is having a growth removed from his face today Developing...

As Summer Temperatures Rise, Dark-Pool Volume Climbs Higher By Nina Mehta July 18, 2008 Dark pools are on a hot streak. They're tearing through volume records and turning into big-league market centers in their own right. Goldman Sach's Sigma X dark pool yesterday executed 406 million shares, making it the seventh-largest market center for U.S. equities. That put Sigma X in line behind Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, the New York Stock Exchange, BATS Trading, Direct Edge ECN and the National Stock Exchange. And ahead of all other venues. Sigma X's volume is up 100 percent over the last seven weeks, according...

GENEVA (Reuters) - Record growth in the world's poorest countries has failed to prevent an increase in their total numbers of poor people, the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said on Thursday. Recent rising food costs threaten to undercut what modest progress has been achieved, while three quarters of people living in least developed countries (LDCs) still survive on less than $2 a day, it said in a report. Income under $2 a day does not allow most people to meet basic needs for food, water, shelter, health or education, the Least Developed Countries Report 2008 noted. The...

Census Bureau says New Orleans is the fastest-growing large city in the nation, recovering from being wiped out by Hurricane Katrina. NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- After being pummeled by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, New Orleans is showing signs of recovery - ranking as the fastest-growing large city in the nation, according to a government report released Thursday. The Census Bureau said New Orleans' population rose 13.8%, to 239,124, in the year ended July 1, 2007. That was a faster growth rate than any other city with a population of 100,000 or more.

"It's been described as the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression. And it brings with it grave dangers for all American families ... ," said Martin Bashir on "Nightline." "Recession looms .... " On the "Today" show June 20, David Faber referred to "the recession ... these tough economic times." Yet that very day first-quarter GDP was revised upward again to 1 percent. America is not in recession, and who knows -- maybe we'll be less likely to have one if my compatriots would just chill. A recession is defined as two quarters of negative economic growth. We...

Stimulus Response by: Brooke Rieder, June 18, 2008 With the burst of the housing bubble, skyrocketing oil prices, and ample media coverage of it all, hysteria is in the air over a potentially looming recession, and all eyes are on the economy. Enter the Bush 2008 Economic Stimulus package. A truly ingenious solution from a political standpoint, constituents’ worries are assuaged when they see concrete government intervention—especially when that intervention puts a $600 check in their pocket. The hope is that more money in the hands of consumers will lead to increased spending, and consequently stimulate greater production and investment....

Responding to concerns that a superhighway project running from East Texas to the border with Mexico could cut through private lands, state transportation officials said Tuesday that they will only consider putting it along existing roads. State officials have held almost 50 public meetings and received about 28,000 responses from residents about the proposed Interstate 69 project, which would be part of the so-called Trans-Texas Corridor network of toll roads. The "overwhelming sentiment" of the comments from the public was that the state should focus on using existing roads instead of carving new ones out of the countryside, said Amadeo...

Virginia’s unemployment rate fell 0.6 percentage point, from 3.9 percent in March to 3.3 percent in April. Employment increased mostly because of the increase in tourism jobs, construction work and the end of the strike...

County commissioners reaffirmed their stance against the Trans-Texas Corridor, and they took another step toward keeping county government transparent when they met Tuesday. First up on the court's agenda, commissioners heard a presentation by Connie Fogle on behalf of the newly formed Pineywoods Sub-Regional Planning Commission. According to Fogle, the Texas Local Government Code, Chapter 391, requires state agencies to coordinate with local commissions to "ensure effective and orderly implementation of state programs at the regional level." "Critical in the code is the word 'coordinate,'" she said. "This does not mean the commission has to cooperate. The intent is to...

Minutes south of Interstate 10 and Sealy, the pastures along FM 1458 are their own silent world in the morning. Mists lift to reveal black cattle, brown and spotted horses, snow-white egrets underfoot in lush green grass. Then a concrete mixer comes churning down the blacktop. Just up the road is a small subdivision. More are sure to come as city dwellers, including weekenders and retirees, move out in search of a quieter, simpler life — and relief from city traffic. Although the gradual influx may bring greater changes in the long run, what disturbs residents most is the planned...

McCain's speech reads like an attempt to unify a divided party by offering every faction something to make them happy. For the GOP's supply-siders and business interests, there are promises to extend the Bush tax cuts and slash corporate rates. For moderate Republicans clinging to seats in Democratic states, there's a pledge to cut the Alternative Minimum Tax, which hits upper-middle class Blue Staters hardest. For free traders, there's a shout-out to the Colombian Free Trade Agreement; for flat-tax obsessives, there's a call for an alternative tax-filing option, featuring just two brackets instead of four or five. For deficit hawks...