Food (Bloggers & Personal)
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A video showing the excesses of Communium and how it killed many millions of people
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Fed Chair Powell yesterday said he doesn’t see the “stag” in stagflation. Really? Well, in Q1 in the US… it failed to show up as non-farm productivity – or nonfarm employee output per hour – rose at a measly 0.3% annualized rate after an upwardly revised 3.5% gain in the prior period (well below expectations)… Source: Bloomberg On the flip-side of that – and echoing the market-worrying ECI data earlier this week – Unit Labor Costs soared 4.7% in Q1 (well above the 4.0% expected and the 0.4% rise in Q4)… Source: Bloomberg So wage inflation is confirmed – rising...
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In the time (dis)honored tradition of Haruhiko Kuroda, the former governor of the Bank of Japan, Japan likely conducted its second currency intervention this week, current account figures from the central bank suggest, in another sign of the government’s intensified battle to prop up the yen. Tokyo’s latest entry into the market was likely around ¥3.5 trillion ($22.5 billion), based on a comparison of Bank of Japan accounts and money broker forecasts. The BOJ reported Thursday that its current account will probably fall ¥4.36 trillion due to fiscal factors on the next business day of Tuesday. That compares with the...
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The Fed will likely pause rate cuts/increases when The Fed reveals their plans today. Breaking: Federal Reserve officials are likely to hold interest rates steady at 5.25-5.5%—a 20-year peak—for a 6th consecutive meeting. With inflation still high, rate cuts seem off the table for now. Rate decision at 2pm Washington time. The Street seems aligned. Conforming rates are already up 161% under Biden. MBS returns have been abysmal under Biden/Powell.
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Housing in the US is simply unaffordable, particularly after HUD levied new regulation rising the cost of new housing up to $31,000. Wait for this to kick into the data for mortgage demand! Mortgage applications decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 26, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.4 percent compared with the previous week. The...
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Janet Yellen, world class propagandist (US version of Baghdad Bob) and US Treasury Secretary under Biden, was so wrong about inflation. Instead of being “transitory”, turns out to be seemingly permanent. Today’s Case-Shiller home price report was released for February. The National Home Price index was up 6.4% year-over-year. But look at the explosion of M2 Money and home prices. Hmm. If we look at home prices and M2 Money on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, we can see the surge in money printing with COVID and the corresponding surge in home prices. As M2 Money growth slowed, the Case-Shiller National...
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Just add this data point to the ‘the disinflation narrative is dead’ side of the ledger.
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Dallas … and the US economy … after midnight. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook survey has now been in contraction (below zero) every month since May 2022, falling modestly to -14.5 in April (worse than the -11.2 expected). New Orders also remain negative (but did improve) and prices continue to rise (though at a slower pace). Labor market measures suggested flat employment and slightly shorter workweeks (hours worked index remained negative for a seventh month in a row) this month. However, wit that said, wage pressure picked up dramatically this week to a seven-month high… Source: Bloomberg However, as always,...
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Joe Biden could barely eat his dinner at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. And we think he is calling the shots in The White House?? Oh well. Perhaps it is Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen or Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum. In any case, Treasury bond issuance in 2024 is expected to hit $1.9 TRILLION. Surpassing levels seen even during the 2008 financial crisis. And with inflation, the US personal saving rate is near the lowest level since Obama (2010). And with the core inflation rate still higher than anytime since 2010, households are paying more for … everything...
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The US debt and Federal spending is out of control. As is entitlement spending. In 2007, the U.S. national debt was below $10 trillion, and the budget deficit was about $160 billion. Federal spending was about $3 trillion, and interest payments were approximately $400 billion. Then the numbers spiraled out of control. Yet Biden/Congress keep shoveling money to Ukraine and leave our borders unsecured. Washington’s fiscal situation has drastically changed since then; total debt has surpassed $34 trillion, the annual budget shortfall exceeds $1 trillion, and interest costs have topped $1 trillion. David Walker, the former comptroller general of the...
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Today’s economic news highlights “Government Power.” Unproductive government jobs saw wages rise 8.5% YoY while productive private sector jobs saw wages rise by only 5.5% YoY. This is Bidenomics!!! With inflation data surprising to the upside recently… Source: Bloomberg …the doves’ last chance for sooner than later rate-cuts is today’s Core PCE Deflator – often described as The Fed’s favorite inflation signal. Last month saw an uptick in the headline deflator and following yesterday’s core PCE rise for Q1, all eyes are on the March data released this morning. However, both the headline and core PCE Deflator data printed hotter...
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The Green Slime! The global movement towards Green Energy (or global Marxist movement) is really The Green Slime! Or maybe it should be renamed “The Red Slime.” Ford lost $132,000 on every electric vehicles they sold in Q1. It was so bad that even CNN reported it! And then we have Hertz dumping its inventory of EVs. A slew of used Teslas have hit the Hertz car sales website after the company announced Thursday it planned to sell off 10,000 more electric vehicles from its fleet than originally planned, bringing the fire sale’s total to 30,000. Perhaps one of the...
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The Federal Reserve is playing the song “Don’t rock the boat” ahead of the Presidential election. Despite the horrible economic news. 1) 4 months of hotter inflation (like today’s stagflationary GDP report) 2) Nearly 1.5 million full-time jobs decline with 1.9 part-time jobs created over a year 3) $2 trillion annual deficits Leading traders to price in 1 rate cut in December 2024. AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION! Under Biden, home prices are up 32.5% and conforming 30Y mortgage rates are UP 160%. One of my colleagues at George Mason University in finance (an economics PhD) constantly quoted Lenin’s famous “You...
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COVID was a gift to Biden. The furious Federal spending of Q2 2020 through Q1 2021 helped keep GDP growth above recession levels. Ignore Biden’s demented rants/lies about cutting the debt in half. Biden has claimed he cut the $34+ trillion national debt by $7 billion, $1.4 trillion, $1.7 billion, $1.7 trillion, and “in half,” depending on the day he rants. He did no such thing. He is confused and is talking about the BUDGET DEFICIT (don’t look to Snopes to fact check “Trucker Joe”, they really only fact check Trump). Not surprisingly, the Federal deficit spiked with the Covid...
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Manufacturer’s Durable Goods New Orders growth peaked in April 2021, thanks in part to M2 Money Growth peaking in February 2021. And its been all downhill since then. Preliminary March data showed a slightly better than expected 2.6% MoM rise (2.5% exp) in the headline orders print. However, thanks to the downward revisions, Durable goods orders are now down 2.2% YoY… the biggest YoY drop since the COVID lockdowns… Source: Bloomberg This is the 8th downward revision of durable goods orders in the last year… Source: Bloomberg Under the hood, defense and non-defense capital goods orders rose with non-defense aircraft...
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VIDEOI love fried food. In fact, you might have seen some of the many air fried cooking videos I have made. However, this "food" is something I'll definitely be skipping. In fact, if you are about to have a meal, I advise you SKIP even watching this frying video.
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Biden and Congress have never met a project that they weren’t willing to fund (except a border wall with Mexico, of course). Inflation is heating up again as the Federal government continues to spend. 4-5% by November… US CPI on trend for 4-5% at US election in November. Source: BofA Above 5%…? Strong CPI raises market probability of YE25 rates above 5%. Source: Goldman Cyclical inflation remains too elevated “Our measure of cyclical inflation–which should capture the impact of excess demand on prices–appears to be stuck at around 5%, which is too elevated” Source: Safra US alone The US is...
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Joe Biden, his Administration, and The Federal Reserve are really “The Alligator People.” Despite what they tell you, they have small brains (particularly Biden) and are hyperfocused on spending. A good example comes from “Wall Street On Parade” where they show that The Federal Reserve is still paying BILLIONS to US Treasury in the form of remittances (losses). While at the same time, paying the mega banks on Wall Street high interest loans. As of April 3 of this year, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has racked up $161 billion in accumulated losses. We’re not talking about unrealized losses on the...
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Hi Ho Silver (and Gold)! Gold futures prices are soaring and are at $2,422.00. Gold futures prices are up 19.61% over the past year. Silver futures prices are also soaring and are at $29.64. Silver futures prices are up 16.40% over the past year. Bitcoin is almost at $70,000 and is up 133.44% over the past year. Returning to gold, we are seeing another gold breakout, like the breakout in 2008. Even central banks are loading up on gold, silver, and cryptos. Why? Primarily fear of US reckless budgets and exploding debts/deficits (don’t listen to Biden talk about how “he”...
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One reason that America’s youth is disgusted with Bidenomics is skyrocketing prices, particulalry housing. (simply unaffordable). Thanks to awful economic policies, home prices are up 32.5% under Biden and 30-year mortgage rates are up a whopping 160%! Good luck buying a home with a part-time job. The bad news is that the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.53%, the highest since November 2023. This means that mortgage rates will rise even further. Yes, rising rates AND home prices are daunting to part-time job holders. Of course, Biden and Powell want to addicted to gov. Doctors, doctos (Yellen and Brainard), we’ve...
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